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PeakOil is You

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Energy costs and ramifications Post 2007/2008

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

What do you think will happen?

Poll ended at Sun 17 Apr 2005, 16:12:50

It is impossible to know because the premise could be wrong. URR is not known and speculation at this stage is futile
1
No votes
Your premise is wrong. Campbell and others have been wrong many times before and they are likely to be wrong again
2
No votes
Some other event (terrorism, major US recession) is likely to kick in before we hit the production peak, thereby pushing out the peak date
5
No votes
Energy prices will rise to a high enough level as to spur a huge push to alternates. More questionable reserves will be exploited and demand will be forced to stay in check with supply
5
No votes
Energy prices will rise at significant rates, which in conjunction with other factors (such as raising interest rates) will lead to a significant global recession
22
No votes
Energy prices will rise at hyper inflated rates leading to a depression
7
No votes
Once the cat is out of the bag (PO well known), all hell breaks loose as countries scramble for resources.
8
No votes
 
Total votes : 50

Re: Energy costs and ramifications Post 2007/2008

Unread postby Newsseeker » Sun 11 Mar 2007, 11:02:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peaker_2005', 'S')orry, my bad. :lol:
Oh, that's OK, no problema (just don't you ever, ever do it again!)

No problem. I think it really is wait and see but I have been following peak oil since the fall of 2004 (introduced to it via LATOC) and this is currently the most exciting time out of the entire time that I have been following it. Indeed, wait and see but as the news trickles in it is seeming to support a peak achieved in May of 2005. The decline has been slight but as Matt Simmons says if Saudi Arabia is peaking then the world is peaking. Let's face it Ghawar and the other major oil fields are so OLD that it has to be about time for them to go. That is the first point. The second point is that the technology used for these fields is going to produce a sharp decline. Last year the Saudis announced that their fields were declining at a rate of 8% a year. How much did Stuart at the Oil Drum calculate their decline at? 8%. Could it be that the Saudis indeed are going down as Twilight in the Desert predicts? I think so. But I agree that we must wait and see. Nevertheless the Chinese curse, "May you live in interesting times" seems to be working.
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Re: Energy costs and ramifications Post 2007/2008

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Sun 11 Mar 2007, 13:09:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', ' ')Oil Drum calculate their decline at? 8%. Could it be that the Saudis indeed are going down as Twilight in the Desert predicts? I think so. But I agree that we must wait and see.
They may be, and it wouldn't surprise me. Meanwhile, the Mexicans are canceling contracts to deliver crude to Gulf State refineries, and California gasoline went over $3/gal in March with no hurricanes and no peak driving season. If the Saudis are in fact in 8% decline then things are going to get real dicey pretty soon. "Interesting" is, as the Chinese curse put it, not a great thing. Specially not this time.
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Re: Energy costs and ramifications Post 2007/2008

Unread postby Newsseeker » Sun 11 Mar 2007, 19:47:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', ' ')Oil Drum calculate their decline at? 8%. Could it be that the Saudis indeed are going down as Twilight in the Desert predicts? I think so. But I agree that we must wait and see.
Specially not this time.


Unless you're a doomer addicted to the collapse fix, that is. :mrgreen:
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Re: Energy costs and ramifications Post 2007/2008

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Mon 12 Mar 2007, 01:05:47

Yep the pot of water we're in is being heated slowly.... gas is over $3 out here and it's only mid-march, no one's complaining.....
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Re: Energy costs and ramifications Post 2007/2008

Unread postby Newsseeker » Mon 12 Mar 2007, 09:15:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('I_Like_Plants', 'Y')ep the pot of water we're in is being heated slowly.... gas is over $3 out here and it's only mid-march, no one's complaining.....


Gas is about .30 cents higher than it was at this time last year. That heat seems to be getting cranked up for one hot boiling session. If Saudi declines continue alongside the North Sea, Cantarell and Burgan then this summer will be one to remember....
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Re: Energy costs and ramifications Post 2007/2008

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Mon 12 Mar 2007, 16:18:48

That's what I mean, gas is above where it was at this time last year, and we've just used daylight savings time to begin the "driving season" earlier.
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Re: Energy costs and ramifications Post 2007/2008

Unread postby Revi » Mon 12 Mar 2007, 21:46:06

I'm filling the heating oil tank in April. That way we're covered for next winter at least. We can make it through the winter on 275 gallons if need be, no problem. We only used 345 last winter, and this winter we have used less than that , and it's been colder. This next winter could be the winter of our discontent. I don't care if we can't drive around much, but I don't want to be cold.
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Re: Energy costs and ramifications Post 2007/2008

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Mon 12 Mar 2007, 22:17:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', ' ')Oil Drum calculate their decline at? 8%. Could it be that the Saudis indeed are going down as Twilight in the Desert predicts? I think so. But I agree that we must wait and see.
Specially not this time.


Unless you're a doomer addicted to the collapse fix, that is. :mrgreen:
I've been thinking about this post since you posted it. It's been in the back of my mind. There's going to be a lot of people thrilled to see the whole thing come crashing down. This isn't the Titanic. It's the whole fucking world. wow. So you're addicted to it, can't wait to witness the biggest thing in human history? Bigger than WWII? I think it's going to be a real drag, but I can see how someone would get excited.
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Re: Energy costs and ramifications Post 2007/2008

Unread postby Newsseeker » Wed 14 Mar 2007, 18:27:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', ' ')Oil Drum calculate their decline at? 8%. Could it be that the Saudis indeed are going down as Twilight in the Desert predicts? I think so. But I agree that we must wait and see.
Specially not this time.


Unless you're a doomer addicted to the collapse fix, that is. :mrgreen:
I've been thinking about this post since you posted it. It's been in the back of my mind. There's going to be a lot of people thrilled to see the whole thing come crashing down. This isn't the Titanic. It's the whole fucking world. wow. So you're addicted to it, can't wait to witness the biggest thing in human history? Bigger than WWII? I think it's going to be a real drag, but I can see how someone would get excited.


I don't know if excited is the right word but being peak oil aware has made me appreciate things more like driving or having a beer. I am 29 and I know that within my lifetime these things may not be available. I don't relish the idea of the petrocollapse the way that Jan Lundberg does but I have to admit that things are getting VERY interesting.
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Re: Energy costs and ramifications Post 2007/2008

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Wed 14 Mar 2007, 20:33:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', '
')I don't know if excited is the right word . . . but I have to admit that things are getting VERY interesting.
yeah, I can appreciate measured words like that. Some really are going to gloat over a collapse, though. Anybody living in an ecovillage better be well armed and ready to fight.
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Re: Energy costs and ramifications Post 2007/2008

Unread postby Revi » Wed 14 Mar 2007, 22:49:57

Things are getting more expensive now, right on schedule. The price of electricity is going up big time. We are using about the same amount of kilowatt hours of electricity as last year, but it costs over 1/3 more now. Everything seems to be climbing by over 20% per year. The price of gas will probably average over $3 this year. Wasn't it $2 a gallon just 2 years ago? Everyone is bewildered by the changes. Why don't they do something?
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Re: Energy costs and ramifications Post 2007/2008

Unread postby RdSnt » Thu 15 Mar 2007, 08:03:01

Who'se "they" Revi? And what are you expecting from them?

More importantly what are you expecting can be done?

I have a big diesel engine, an antique really, that is a true diesel in that it doesn't require any electricity to run and no glow plug. Runs simply on compression. To stop it I have to turn the fuel off and wait. There is nothing else to do, it has a big flywheel, and no amount of outside interference is going to shorten the time it takes for the engine to come to a stop. It would just rip my arm off if I tried.
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Re: Energy costs and ramifications Post 2007/2008

Unread postby Revi » Thu 15 Mar 2007, 08:11:08

"They" is anyone who is paying attention. I see monster trucks driving around, people aren't insulating their houses, aren't investing in more energy efficiency. Why not? Do they prefer to go bankrupt? If we can barely make the bills and we have reduced our fossil fuel use by half, and I'm still employed, what is it like for the average person? They must feel totally clobbered by their bills. That monster truck eats three times as much gas as mine. Their house costs three times as much to heat. They get an electric bill every month that's over $100. How do "they" do it?
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Re: Energy costs and ramifications Post 2007/2008

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Thu 15 Mar 2007, 14:10:01

Revi the answer is CREDIT CARDS.
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Re: Energy costs and ramifications Post 2007/2008

Unread postby Newsseeker » Thu 15 Mar 2007, 20:48:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', '
')I don't know if excited is the right word . . . but I have to admit that things are getting VERY interesting.
yeah, I can appreciate measured words like that. Some really are going to gloat over a collapse, though. Anybody living in an ecovillage better be well armed and ready to fight.


Yeah I don't think any place will be safe and it will NOT be easy going for anyone, even if you have one of Matt Savinar's Global Sun Ovens....
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Re: Energy costs and ramifications Post 2007/2008

Unread postby Revi » Thu 15 Mar 2007, 22:25:27

Any port in a storm. Start looking for a hurricane hole. It's gonna get nasty soon. We'll have to make our stand here in Maine. At least we have wood to heat our house and some solar to keep the lights on for a while. Good luck everyone!
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Re: Energy costs and ramifications Post 2007/2008

Unread postby Newsseeker » Mon 19 Mar 2007, 19:04:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'A')ny port in a storm. Start looking for a hurricane hole. It's gonna get nasty soon. We'll have to make our stand here in Maine. At least we have wood to heat our house and some solar to keep the lights on for a while. Good luck everyone!


Good luck to you too! Keep your powder hard and your pecker dry or something like that...
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Re: Energy costs and ramifications Post 2007/2008

Unread postby Revi » Mon 19 Mar 2007, 21:10:16

Thanks! I'll try to do that.

It's getting harder and harder for the average person to keep afloat. We are working 5 jobs and cutting expenses, and still slipping. I feel that every day we can live some semblance of a lower middle class lifestyle is a bonus.
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Re: Energy costs and ramifications Post 2007/2008

Unread postby I_Like_Plants » Tue 20 Mar 2007, 00:24:10

I'm in the same boat - debt = my annual gross income, not sure if I can pay it down or would be best off gearing way down and living poor for a few years and doing a bankruptcy.

Make a chart, make many charts, and keep track of expenses - you may find some "money leaks" you weren't aware of that way.

I'm giving myself 8 months, to the end of this apartment lease, to have made good progress at paying stuff down, or to have a skill developed that's relatively portable - I've been working on street musician skills but my old art skills are still in the running and may be more useful on rainy/foggy/cold days.

Just staying in the "lower middle" class is becoming a dream for most people.
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Re: Energy costs and ramifications Post 2007/2008

Unread postby Revi » Tue 20 Mar 2007, 08:13:10

We are much more frugal than most people, but the cost of things is going up so fast that any amount of frugality can't cover it. The next things to go, garbabe pickup and the newspaper on weekends will hurt. I can take the garbage up to the dump, but the newspaper is nice. Oh, well, I suppose it could be a lot worse. 2007/8 seems to be the breaking point for us. We'll move into ultra frugal mode next winter.
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