[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nwildmand', 'I') think we might get by with 55 billion a day with a whole lot of conservation.

[Colorado-Valley]

My wife gets mad when I'm reading Mogambo late at night and I start laughing uncontrollably ... hahaha!

I let off a few rounds of the .45 magnum in her direction and then she usually leaves me alone.

[JoeCoal]

Jeez, I'm having to use hand grenades for that lately...

RTMEW!

[MrBill]

Thanks for the link. I always keep my eyes open for his newest and latest post, but sometimes I miss it! Thanks again.

[EnergyHog]

All of Mogambo's articles can be found at http://news.goldseek.com/RichardDaughty/

A Long Honest Mogambo Article (LHMA) comes out every Wednesday.

[LadyRuby]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', 'M')y wife gets mad when I'm reading Mogambo late at night and I start laughing uncontrollably ... hahaha!

I let off a few rounds of the .45 magnum in her direction and then she usually leaves me alone.

[MrBill]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyHog', 'A')ll of Mogambo's articles can be found at http://news.goldseek.com/RichardDaughty/

A Long Honest Mogambo Article (LHMA) comes out every Wednesday.

[firestarter]

Mogambo sez:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') read that the "movement" to increase the minimum-wage is heating up....But I will admit that people needing higher wages because prices are higher is a valid point, but that is not the issue, as sad a tale as it is. The real issue is why the prices are higher in the first place, making their erstwhile perfectly-satisfactory wages suddenly inadequate. So I casually ask the class the innocent rhetorical question, "Why do people need higher wages?"...Well, the place exploded in a simultaneous shout "Because things cost more, you stupid Mogambo moron (SMM)!" and then they all joined together to laugh at me!...The minimum-wage worker can't make ends meet now because things cost too much to be able to afford them. So (and here is where The Mogambo laughs and laughs and laughs (LALAL) at the sheer stupidly of mandating higher wages), businesses are now required, as a result of paying higher labor costs, to charge their customers higher prices to make up for it! Hahaha! Higher prices, caused by requiring higher wages, is the solution to higher prices? Hahahaha!...This is the genius of the electorate? Instead of stopping inflation by reining in the Federal Reserve, we are going to make the inflation situation worse by mandating higher wages? Hahahaha! What suicidal idiocy! It makes you wonder why anyone has any respect for democracy at all! Hahahahaha!

[Newsseeker]

Bakhtiari is interviewed but some highlights include oil hitting $5 a litre within five years. A 2006 peak. Bakhtiari shines as perhaps (IMHO) the best peak oil forecaster when he begins to explain his four transition phases (T1-T4). T1 begins in 2006 with a slight decline and lasts 3-5 years. T2 is when it gets interesting. On megaprojects: "I do not think such a project will ever be finished, because the high oil prices will trigger price rises in prices for all other commondities." Like Simmons he predicts that there will come a day when oil is $300 a barrel. He sees a decline from a current 81 million barrels to 79 by 2009 and eventually to 55 million by 2020. And the rest..... I will let you read that. Comments are more than welcome! I think the T1-T4 is probably the way it will go down.

http://www.sfu.ca/~asamsamb/Macquarie%2 ... erview.pdf

[Aaron]

This is the guy who correctly predicted $50 per barrel oil prices amidst very vocal criticism.

Turns out Lynch was wrong predicting $35 & Dr. B was right.

As if there was ever really any question.

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ased on his bottom-up analysis of world oil supply over the
next 14 years, he believes present global production of 81 million
barrels a day will decrease to 79 million by 2009 and to about 55
million barrels a day by 2020.

[theragtopguy]

An excellent article! This guy really knows his stuff.

I fear for my children's generation.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theragtopguy', 'A')n excellent article! This guy really knows his stuff.

I fear for my children's generation.

[Ayoob]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('theragtopguy', 'A')n excellent article! This guy really knows his stuff.

I fear for my children's generation.

[gg3]

Interestingly, he goes through a list of substitute energy sources and, one by one, dismisses all of them as not being able to replace the dwindling petroleum.

But there is one word he does not mention: Nuclear. Okay, two, the other being Uranium.

This is particularly interesting given that Iran has been vociferously protesting to the world that it has a right, not only to fission reactors, but also to operate the entire fuel cycle.

Bakhtiari is a most interesting man. A Sufi (the mystical branch of Islam, and the branch that is most compatible with peaceful relations between faiths & nations) in a country governed by a Shiite (fundamentalist) theocracy that views Sufis as dangerous heretics. Clearly a brilliant man in many ways. And somehow the Iranian government tolerates him making statements that for anyone else might merit a one-way ticket to the dungeons.

I suspect what's going on here is that they are allowing him to speak his mind because what he says naturally coincides with Iran's interest in nuclear power (and whatever else they might want to do with uranium). In that case we have to ask ourselves, could it be that Iran really only wants nuclear power and not a bomb, as they say? Or could it be that they want simply to have the ability to produce a bomb if at some point in the future they decide they want one?

Anyway, B was right before, he's likely to be right again, and as for most of us here, the best we can do is prepare and be ready.

[Newsseeker]

Those that see an immediate 3-5% yearly decline following peak oil are likely to be disappointed by a reality that has seen a slight decline from May of 2005. Dr. B's prognostications are coming true in hindsight and his prediction of a decrease to 55 mbpd by 2020 is frightening indeed. Yet out of all the peak oil crowd I find his musings to be the most realistic.

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', 'T')hose that see an immediate 3-5% yearly decline following peak oil are likely to be disappointed by a reality that has seen a slight decline from May of 2005. Dr. B's prognostications are coming true in hindsight and his prediction of a decrease to 55 mbpd by 2020 is frightening indeed. Yet out of all the peak oil crowd I find his musings to be the most realistic.

[Pablo2079]

Newsseeker - I might be splitting hairs, but I don't think anyone will really be measuring what the yearly decline was after "Peak Oil".

How far back would we need to look back to really determine when Peak Oil was?

I believe that TPTB will try and make it sound like this is a temporary decline in production. All we need to do is:

1) Open up ANWR.
2) Open up Coastal Drilling
3) Relax Environmental Regulations
4) Stop the Evil Axis from Restricting the Flow of Oil

etc....

Everything will be blamed but the fact that we outgrew the reserves we have/had.

At this point, we could see an ultra-conservative push.... drop all environmental regs, drill everywhere, and start up more resource wars (to much more of a degree than today)

OR

We may see a shift to the left. Price controls, rationing, pushing of alternatives etc....

Neither of which will be sustainable.... then the sh*t really hits the fan.