[Baldwin]

I live on long island, (a suburb of New York City).

My chance of survival is zero, for various reasons.

[keehah]

Bytesmiths Island is one of the few places I would consider not needing a weapon if I was well connected with the community. I think that community will really pull together (they already are).

Most of us are not so lucky. Altough even that island has been infected with the condo disease in this last real-estate bubble.

[max_power29]

I don't know where his or her island is but, I know that the Vikings did not care if you had bodies of water as obstacles nor did they have any firearms.

[max_power29]

I don't know where his or her island is but, I know that the Vikings did not care if you had bodies of water as obstacles nor did they have any firearms.

[Bytesmiths]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('keehah', 'M')ost of us are not so lucky. Although even that island has been infected with the condo disease in this last real-estate bubble.

[Heineken]

I don't see how your view of the future differs materially from present-day realities, bytesmith. Basically, you envision a very orderly Collapse and Dieoff, with the same basic social system remaining intact.

Convenient, but probably not realistic.

[BlisteredWhippet]

I voted for "making it" and I'll tell you why.

Even though rationalism would dictate the odds poorly to any individual in the maelstrom of change, personal volition makes or breaks any specific individual's chances of survival. In other words, statistics predict the outcomes in the abstract, not the particular. And the particular experience of any individual depends on his or her mental state.

At the heart of issues of survival is the physical, and anyone who has undergone physical training also knows that the mind succumbs before the body. Therefore the correct posture toward a goal of survival is mental in nature. If the mental picture is consistent with survival, then the body can be dragged along. This does not mean one can jump into freezing water and escape hypothermia by believing that one's body is immune to freezing saltwater. It only means that a tough mental attitude precipitates a tough physical posture.

Statistics is irrelevant. Genetics is irrelevant. Chance is irrelevant. The correct survival posture is belief in and planning for, survival. It might be internally consistent with predictive logic to assume by statistics or genetics alone the abstract outcome of survival. But the hopelessness of logic simply means that a self-fulfilling mechanism is in place for failure. This is problematic because the mind tends to fulfill its prophesies.

I think a good way to illustrate the illogic of chance and the primacy of volition is motorcycle riding. In any statistic measure, motorcycle riding is dangerous, holding a near 100% chance of accident for any rider who rides for a good length of time. Every instance of zipping across the surface of the planet without being strapped in, reassured by safety devices, inches from an unforgiving hard surface, surrounded by dimly aware idiots eating Chinese takeout in massive two-ton vehicles is akin to balancing on a 360 degree fulcrum where any move to any direction will result in a fall.

The statistics of motorcycle accidents are frightening. The chance of injury and death is many times higher than most other activities. Yet the fact remains that in the realm of the particular, the human mind influences the survival factor. Choice of ride, level of skill, plan of attack, technique, foresight in choosing safety gear, physical conditioning- all these things modify the damage potential and skew the statistics. The fact is that looking at bare statistics and planning eventualities is a prescription for failure, in itself. The least successful riders, the ones involved in the most damaging, fatal accidents, are found to be those who neglected to wear safety gear, who took unnecessary risks beyond their abilities, and who ironically "crashed" in order to "avoid crashing". From a statistical point of view, the individual's chances are much, much better for correcting in practice the errors which worsen statistical chances.

None of these corrective, odds-bettering practices are precipitated by anything but mental conditioning. The attitude of prudence in getting your gear together. The attitude of a proper balance of comfort and safety, an especially, an attitude that you are NOT going to crash, that you are NOT going to ditch your bike to avoid an accident, that you are NOT going to go down in any situation, that you will TRY to stay on the bike, ride out any problem, any situation, NO MATTER WHAT.

To the extent that a prepared mind conditions an individual to anticipate and deal with reality, severely skews any abstract assessment of survival probability.

So I don't plan on dying, I plan on surviving. Probabilities and statistics cannot kill or hurt you and will not influence material reality. The proper attitude toward survival, though is essential. Many don't have it. I think its something that is apparent in everyday life, in "non-survival" situations, as well. Dedication, perseverance, foresight, fortitude, all virtues of survival. People without these virtues are shot through with a sort of fatalism or defeatism. The reaction formation is one of doubt, not necessarily fear. It is simple ignorance, really, of a whole set of mental components that exist to modify survival chances. These virtues and tools are built-in features of the human mind. They are not and have not been necessarily encouraged by a postmodern technological lifestyle. The physical degeneration of America's population is clearly influenced by this mental deficiency. The values exist, but are underutilized.

That being said, I think many people who theorize on peak oil and these issues are probably better off. A component of mental conditioning is mental exercise like scenario-building and visualization. These are the building blocks for cognition. This is preparing for testing. They might seem like useless daydreams, nightmares, or prattling message board commentary, but they are really conditioning. The understatement of chances by individuals highly committed to such exercises is also an aspect of this conditioning. The "objective" de-emphasis on personal survival chances is just another way of keeping an individual's perspective under control, a type of restraint. For myself, such restraint is unnecessary because I subjectively believe in my own success. I would invite anyone assuming the worst to replace those expectations with affirmations along the lines of the virtues described above in order to strengthen the frame of mind required to overcome physical challenges, thereby releasing the mind from the occlusive constructs of abstract risk analysis.

When it comes to physical survival, the prime skills are going to be mental: the resistance to pain, hunger, thirst, disgust, hopelessness, cold, heat, all types of discomfort. To prepare go out and hurt yourself if you don't know what pain feels like. Starve yourself to make hunger your friend. Go skinny dipping in freezing water. Walk for miles in bare feet. Commit to mental exercises like inner silence, isolation from people, going without sleep. Just some ideas. All this develops perseverance.

Push yourself to physical exhaustion in some way every day. Lift your body weight and try to do more than you are able. It is impossible to hurt yourself trying to do more pushups that you ever thought imaginable. The point is trying to push yourself to the point of physical nausea. If you feel like you're going to throw up, you've reached your goal. Do not, of course, throw up. The point is actually to push yourself to that point and then resist throwing up. This builds fortitude.

Believe that you will live, that nothing is unsurmountable, and attempt new and previously impossible tasks every day. Sometimes it is difficult to find inspiration to recognize the things which represent the greatest challenges because the mind tends to deny perception of things that appear not to be possible. For some reason I am thinking of Parkour, (Youtube- Parkour) mainly because it explores the possibilities in the mundane. Dedicate yourself to goals tied to time frames.

Finally, do go ahead and plan for the future you think is going to happen. Develop a lifestyle in line with your essential values. Continually develop inner dialog and meditate on virtue. Study wisdom, acquire intelligence. You'll be fine...

[Revi]

Blistered Whippet wrote:
"None of these corrective, odds-bettering practices are precipitated by anything but mental conditioning. The attitude of prudence in getting your gear together. The attitude of a proper balance of comfort and safety, an especially, an attitude that you are NOT going to crash, that you are NOT going to ditch your bike to avoid an accident, that you are NOT going to go down in any situation, that you will TRY to stay on the bike, ride out any problem, any situation, NO MATTER WHAT. "

I used to ride an enduro when I lived in Guatemala. There were times that I had to ditch the bike. One time I was on a clay covered road in the jungle that was wet from the rain (it was the rain forest) There was no way I could keep that thing up. I just kept slithering off one side or the other. In that situation, the best thing to do is to push the bike. Eventually I could ride again.

There comes a time when you have to "push the bike". We'll all have to abandon some aspect of the lifestyle we're used to and go to plan B. I like having plans C and D ready as well. We'll be stretched to the limit soon, no doubt about that. We'll have to learn to live within the very meagre limits set by nature again. If you can only cut a cord off of your two acre plot, you'll have to make it through the winter on that. If the chickens aren't laying, no eggs. If the incoming solar isn't enough to heat your bath water, no shower. There isn't going to be enough to buy outside sources of energy. This includes food. Most people are going to be pretty hungry. There will be a few who live the kind of lifestyle we are living now, but they will only be the very wealthy. The rest of us are going to be eating a lot of beans.

[Bytesmiths]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', 'I') voted for "making it" and I'll tell you why... The correct survival posture is belief in and planning for, survival.

[ironborne]

I'm going to make it for awhile because I'm too stupid/stubborn to die.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', ' ')If you feel like you're going to throw up, you've reached your goal. Do not, of course, throw up.

[Baldwin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', ' ')If you feel like you're going to throw up, you've reached your goal. Do not, of course, throw up.

[Narz]

Whip certainly has a way with words.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Baldwin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', ' ')If you feel like you're going to throw up, you've reached your goal. Do not, of course, throw up.

[crapattack]

"a sword and armor are my terms"

Well, post-PO there will be plenty of communities who will need hired soldiers to protect them from bandits. Sword, martial, and armour/fletching/firearm skills may be a way of earning your keep so long as you're not a drunk or woman beater you'll probably do fine in many of these arrangements. If you are an instructor in any of these areas you'll be highly valued.

I imagine that there will be many town and village militias that will spring up, and possibly larger armies belonging to emerging lords or organized or semi-organized governments. Engineers who know how to build defensive fortifications and/or castles will be very valueable. Weird but true.

[Ludi]

You don't really take the "sword and armor" seriously do you?

What a LAFF RIOT.


Sword and armor.

[Bytesmiths]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('crapattack', 'W')eird but true.

[Revi]

The future is unknowable. Any one of a million things could happen. The only thing we know is that the energy source we've become so dependent on is becoming harder to get. The only sensible thing to do is to use less of it. Get yourself off the junk!

There were hundreds of people in my town here in Central Maine in snowmobile suits. They came here in $40,000 trucks towing $10,000 trailers containing $30,000 in snowmobiles. They spent a lot of money, which is good for the local economy, but this constitutes an enormous waste of money and energy. They are mortgaging themselves so that they can zoom around on these foolish toys. It shows where most people's heads are at.

An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. I'll bet that they will wish that they had spent that $50,000 on something else in a few years. Or maybe not...

[crapattack]

Sure it's true, I'm surprised you don't agree! Personally I'd like a smallish castle and a few dozen cute wenches to serve me ale and smoked turkey legs Of course I'm mostly kidding - Ludi's on to me, but hell you never know what could happen.

I don't know about making it, at what point would someone sigh, put their hands on the hips and say "boy, I made it" then as soon as that's said a horde of dirty drooly canibals come over the hill and set your pants on fire. I would like to survive the initial die off, or maybe not, I can't decide. It depends on how I survive I guess, like Heinken is saying - if I'm knawing on hedges or chained to someones human-pulled-hummer-cum-lord's-chariot then maybe I don't want to have "made it", I mean at that point would you say to yourself "I'm so glad I survived"? Anyhow, I'll try to "make it" with as many folks as I can before I go, and I mean with a community those of you with dirty minds.

[savethehumans]

I won't make it. I have health problems now as it is, and when TSHTF, I won't even be able to get/afford the meds I currently need. I'll be ripe for whichever pandemic hits first.

I sure don't plan for them to come knocking at the door for me. I need to decide how they'd find my dead body once they kick in the door. (That is, if the pandemic didn't get me first.)

I suppose looters or raiders could get me--not that I have anything they'd want.

Or maybe the food I eat will be deadly--I doubt we'll be having even our present questionable food inspections then. That is, if I can afford any food in the first place.

Whichever way I look, I'm done for. Maybe that's why I can be so resigned about it. Enjoy the little time that's left. Try to live each day as it comes. That's about all I, and most people on this planet, have got.

Pessimistic and doomer-heavy? You bet. Also realistic. You who will get thru this have the attitude and moxie to do so. I don't. It's really that simple. (And, heck, I'm a Christian, and believe that after the worst imaginable time on this planet, God's gonna deal with it. I'll be watching from the other side, though.)

I don't envy you. Yet I have to admit, there's a part of me who wants to live thru this. Inexplicable, except maybe the desire to watch history unfold, or something. The best to you who are going to take it on, and fight. I mean that.