[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('johnmarkos', 'I') was reading Bruce Sterling's latest "State of the World" conversation and I came across this gem about the optimist vs. pessimist debate. In one awesome paragraph, he shows the whole controversy to be quite silly. It made me think of this group.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bruce Sterling', 'T')o do serious futurism you need to think historically. The future is a kind of history that hasn't happened yet. If someone asked if you were optimistic or pessimistic about the 19th century, that question would have no meaning. If you wrote a book about the 19th century and you said it was the worst of all possible centuries and that only glum, terrible, and degrading things happened then, you'd be clearly fraudulent. You wouldn't be considered a great historian; it'd be obvious to everybody that you had some kind of bee in your bonnet.

[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'I') live in a medium city and don't have the capital to buy a piece of land unfortunately. Nor do I know much about growing food. Not sure where to begin preparing; maybe I should start with stocking up on bicycle parts, hmmmmm

[johnmarkos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Bas', 'I') think there's a logic fallacy in there, in that you cannot be optimistic or pessimistic about anything that has already fully played out. However you can be optimistic/pessimistic about the future as being optimistic/pessimistic in it's very essence draws on the as yet unknown future; I find it a very weak argument as if from someone who is lost in philosophy and books.

[Bas]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('johnmarkos', '
')
It's not really an argument in the philosophical sense of the word. Rather, he's looking at the optimist/pessimist debate from the point of view of what it looks like to talk about a hundred years in completely positive or negative terms. He's taking the long view. And since, in the long term, we'll all be dead (odds are good we'll all be dead by 2100), it doesn't make sense to generalize about such a period in a positive or negative way.

Anyway, I don't think it's right to look for philosophical consistency here. Rather, look for insight, an "Aha!" moment. I had one. If you don't, well, that's OK.

[gg3]

Optimist or pessimist in this case seems to refer to one's answer to the question "do you and those you care about expect to be doing better or worse in the future, by all relevant measures of human happiness?"

It's not unfair to ask the same question with respect to the past. In which case for example, black Americans with long-standing historic roots here might say that the first half of t he 19th century was awful (slavery) and for that matter our entire history up until the Civil Rights movement, sucked for them. Jewish Europeans could say the same thing about roughly the first half of the 20th century. Russians might say it about the entire 20th century, at least up until the last few years.

[undertaker]

I gave a Powerpoint presentation at www.wrenchintheworks.org last Saturday evening. Here's the speech I gave, except I shortened it and put it in a Powerpoint presentation:

http://powerdownblog.blogspot.com/

I showed up with 6 friends, and there were about 10 others in the audience. The Powerpoint presentation included a discussion of local resources they could use, such as a brewer supply store that dabbled in cheesemaking and would teach them cheesemaking. I also offered to show them where to get raw milk fresh off a farm for cheap, 2 bucks a gallon.

I also informed them that I know the family that owns a local slaughterhouse (some of the lefty vegan types made a face) and that they are an excellent resource, for example to get free beef suet to make soap, and that I know local farmers who will trade labor for food.

There is a local organic supermarket, but non-rich cannot afford to shop there regularly. I said, "You can have the high quality food like the co-op has in exchange for a few hours of work a week!"

I also laid out several books on the table such as "Stocking Up" by Rodale press and "Wild Fermentation" by Sandor Ellix Katz (krauts, miso soup, pickling, etc), and "Cook for a Day, Eat for a Month."

I explained that local farming, which is our only real food security, failed because the women of the household stopped buying in bulk from local farmers and doing canning/pickling/freezing of the harvest for the long cold winter to come. Instead they started going to teh supermarket and everything's gone down hill since.

I don't think that went over too well with the feminists, though they didn't say anything.

Afterwards I passed around a piece of paper offering to contact people and put them in touch with local farm resources. This was a very lefty, crunchy, hippie crowd, and they seemed like nice enough folks, but I only got two e-mail addresses. One of the e-mails bounced, and the other one replied, "haha what?" I looked at the e-mail I sent and it explained who I was and where this person met me and what I offered. So I said the hell with it.

To be fair, I got the same response at a NOFA conference (see www.nofa.org ). Most of my local farm resources are not members of NOFA and never heard of it. I tried to put the NOFA people in touch with my local farmer friends. You'd think the "progressive" minded people at NOFA might respond. Nope.

I think it's different out west. But here on the East Coast it's pretty hopeless. I got my family and friends as my lifeboat, but as far as starting a relocalized Peak Oil Preparation, Powerdown community here, it's not happening. You can lead a horse to water, as they say.

[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('undertaker', '
')
I think it's different out west. But here on the East Coast it's pretty hopeless. I got my family and friends as my lifeboat, but as far as starting a relocalized Peak Oil Preparation, Powerdown community here, it's not happening. You can lead a horse to water, as they say.

[cestlavie]

Good moooorrnning Vietnam!!!! (just having fun!) :>

I was born in 1972 when the ship was well on its way headed toward the iceberg (though I didn't know it then). I'm currently pounding the nails into my makeshift raft and hope to push off the titanic before the jarring crash. I have my seed potato in the basement, not nearly enough seed potato unfortunately (woefully) to plant a 1/2 acre but I learned my lesson last year, so next year I'll save enough seed potato to plant a full 1/2 acre hopefully, and then hopefully also have enough potato to feed our family through the winter. You can eat potato every day if your a good cook, or at least every other day. I strongly beleive in unavoidable powerdown, I believe depression is basically powerdown. People are out of a job, which means doing what you can to cut down expenses, like car-pooling (powerdown), and reducing electric bill (ex: tie a string from tree #1 to tree #2 and hang clothes). Considering that when world oil fields go in decline (as they are now), they look like single diamond or double-diamond ski slopes, AND looking at different graphs (like world car graph, world population graph, graph of world demand, graph of Chinas oil demand) then depression is the simple result of supply vs demand, except demand is huge, and supply is well, (quite) limited. All of the just mentioned graphs together present the true picture, which is certain depression and then dieoff, the extent to which is debatable. What makes dieoff occur is when (in the middle of depression when you are dirt poor) price keeps going up which makes it absolutely impossible to buy any type of sustenance food at all (kind of impossible to imagine now, yeah?) which means stealing - or death. If you aren't self sufficient then you end up dependent on the government food trucks and rations. However, if your too old to steal and somehow end up near death (due to inability to plant and defend a garden or steal) then it might be disease that pushes you up into the world in the sky. In an environment where price simply keeps going up and up (since production keeps going down), eventually we must see mass starvation like in Africa, disease and lack of proper nutrition, and death. Hard to imagine now...

I believe that powerdown will happen since we (civilization) are in checkmate and we're unwilling to uncheck ourselves - meaning reduce consumption. I feel dieoff will eventually happen if significant empathy in the world does not happen - the opposite vision is a world of oil wars were nations compete for oil (oil will cost lots of $$$, yes?). In this world, governments don't want to waste any resources (like money especially since oil is so much $$$$) to feed people and just want to secure their access to oil...

I have to say cestlavie! Do your best to create a best life (for all) but live for today!
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Peace is experienced by those sweating, digging the soil & preparing for Peak...

[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cestlavie', ' ')I have my seed potato in the basement, not nearly enough seed potato unfortunately (woefully) to plant a 1/2 acre but I learned my lesson last year, so next year I'll save enough seed potato to plant a full 1/2 acre hopefully, and then hopefully also have enough potato to feed our family through the winter.

[Grifter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JPL', '
')
About 60 yards will feed a family of four providing you look after them. (That's only about 3 or 4 bags of seed BTW). I planted 90 this year ('cos I was feeling particularly doomer-ish) & now have a shed full of sprouting potatoes (pleuugh...)

JPL

[cestlavie]

JPL, Grifter,

Thanks for the support. We had enough crop to feed our family for 3 months, with enough extra seed potato to have a similar harvest for next year. This was my first year being a potato farmer with the help of my dads tractor (no way we could get from 0 production to an initial garden of 1/2 acre without some form of oil fired machinery!)

But, boy did I underestimate how much humans can eat! I know that you can't have enough potatoes. In the future if I end up having too many in the spring, I'll just have more seed potatoes to pass around to friends! Who need them

We may be lucky enough to avoid dieoff and "simply" have re-localization (i.e. powerdown?) IF the sleeping masses start to wake up. However, the type of sound that has to come from the alarm clock has to be quite jarring. It has to be some combination of this: high oil prices, really high credit card bills, fear, exposure to Peak Oil in daily life, and seeing other people in real life who are aware, talking about Peak Oil and getting ready. There is no easy way out. There is no shortcut home. This really is the "red pill". But reality can feel good (with good peak preparation...)

The advice I got from a farmer last year was when I was out buying my seed potatoes, was simply "cut 'em up into four pieces and plant 'em". I followed his advice and even did one better! I made sure each quarter piece looked like a root was coming, and let the cut pieces dry overnight. Remember, if your a doomer, no potato harvest is too small!!!! Its all pays off in the end. What the bugs dont get, you will!!!

Just remember, "doom" happens because of the presence of absolute ignorance in society. Powerdown supposes we have a little more intelligence, less ignorance. I'll be pulling both oars on my liferaft in the night looking at the brightly lit party on the titanic from farther and farther away, hearing the sounds of merriment and laughter across the sea...
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Peace is experienced by those sweating, digging the soil & preparing for Peak...

[hi-fiver]

Cestlavie:
What is your procedure for keeping the seed potatoes through-out the winter. Do you have a "Root Celler"? I live in Alaska, and I know my personal taste would allow me to survive on potatoes and cabbage as my steady diet, but the flatulance produced by a steady diet of cabbage and potatoes might necessitate a solo inviroment.

[cestlavie]

Hey Hi-fiver,

Have you tried removing cabbage from your diet and just eating potatoes for awhile? If cabbage is the culprit, oowolf has lots of posts about alternatives - he also lives in a northern climate like you and there should be some substitutes that can be a sustainable staple crop (like cabbage) to get you through the winter. Oowolf had initially posted this incredible link nutrition content and I have to give credit where credit is due! :>

I'm hoping that once my productivity goes up maybe I'll be a "content doomer". Good productivity combined with (ok, somewhat safe) storage location in the ground for my tubers = bliss in my book. Ok, so maybe I will be digging a root cellar...

Carbohydrates give you more energy for food production, defense, helps to keep you healthy and strong, and makes it so you can also keep your family healthy. Potatoes are a good choice for carbs...

Since this is my first year growing potatos I really am a newbie... Is there someone out there who can advise on potato storing? My potato book mentions three things are needed: #1) a temp of around 30-40 degrees F, #2) high humidity, and #3) good air circulation. It also mentions not to pile up the potatoes more than 1.5 feet high or else the bottom ones get crushed. Apparently you can put hay on the bottom to avoid the "crushing effects"...

My potatoes used to hang in a mesh bag in the basement, and around December they all decided to start spouting like crazy (I guess they were just all too happy, or thought it was spring). I had to break sprouts off, and spread them on a table. These are all the small potatoes from my harvest and in the spring I'll plant all these small full sized potatoes which (from what I hear) gives better yields. My basement doesn't have the high humidity but it does now have 30-40 degrees and some good air circulation. I've got the Green mountain potato - a late season, good storing potato, its mealy and keeps its flavor through the months, hopefully all is well with this variety. If I have to, I'll dig a root cellar but just dont have the time currently with our 2 yr old maniac who takes all the time out of our schedule (and then some), plus root cellar is also a heck of a lot of work (with digging/building), I always opt for the easiest solution to lifes problems... :>

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Peace is experienced by those sweating, digging the soil & preparing for Peak...

[Ludi]

I put "Doomer" because I don't see any evidence of people moving toward a societal powerdown, but I see plenty of evidence of resource wars.


But I've been called lots of things here on the board......

[Revi]

I like Monte's description of a powerdowner. I don't think we'll know if the third world will have dieoffs. They are having them now. The powerdown will be an essential strategy for survival in the near future. It is now. Most people are driving around in a car that's twice the size they can afford here in the US, and are driving way more than they need to. This will have to change. We are going to have to adapt or we'll go the way of the dinosaurs. Most people live lives of quiet desperation surrounded by the junk they bought thinking that energy was going to be cheap forever. If they just could think rationally they would rearrange their lives to use less energy. That's a big if.

I guess I'm a combo of doomer and powerdowner. I know which one I prefer, which is powerdown, but doom may come anyway.

[cestlavie]

Whosoever speaketh exactly why (or why not) you are a powerdowner or doomer, I think that would be even or interesting than just stating who you are, for it is more deep. For there is such a superficiality in our culture, that really asking who we are and why really gets at the core issue and really prepares us for the times ahead...

Growing potatoes is such an addiction, I got such joy digging my hands into the dirt last summer (I'm still dreaming this winter even when the ground is now frozen) and pulling out tubers everywhere I totally forgot I was such a doomer! Amazing how the simple things can have so much meaning. I too am in a technical field - graduated as CSE (computer science and engineering), worked 2 years in web development so I'll eventually post a website - if most or at least half of our brainpower processing is done visually then we can help people process extreme amounts of information this way

So visually (like through combinations of graphs and logic) I will see what I can do to change the world. Everyone - a word of hope!!! one single parameter or variable can affect an entire system (either take down and crash, or entirely support). There is a thread on potato storage (below). Hopefully there is enough time to learn (so we can post to it and teach others). Otherwise we are Doomed! We have to be Pro-active...

Food storage can provide *some* sense of comfort. But there ain't nothing like growing (and storing) potatoes! <grin!> And we all need psychological comfort when this peak oil thing comes to town! I woe that I had not initially posted here potato storage but cest la vie!

[I_Like_Plants]

I'm between a powerdowner and a doomer when it comes right down to it. The world system, just the USA, is so big that unless we get some kind of a Black Plague kind of trim-down, we're going to have a Depression-causted Powerdown, punctuated by various sudden events that may result in wholesale loss of life.

Example: Blockage of Straits of Hormuz results in gas rationing, 20% lose their jobs, people plant "Victory" gardens and walk/bike more, weight loss plan companies lose 80% of their business. More babies are aborted and more birth control is used. There's a bit more death due to stress and loss of nutrition among the poorest, less babies are born, etc. Things go along like this, misery but bearable misery. Then a plague sweeps through, maybe 10% of the population goes, then things go back to steady misery...... then a border war breaks out, 10% of population gets expended fighting it in the border area..... back to steady misery.... etc.

Instead of punctuated evolution, punctuated de-evolution.

[killJOY]

DON'T HANG POTATOES IN A MESH BAG. THEY NEED ABSOLUTE DARKNESS.

I'm a "Doomerdowner."

Powered down twenty years ago -- because I'm cheap and lazy. I hate shopping, I hate driving, and I hate "being employed."

I love doing everything I can for myself, I love staying home, and I love having part-time gigs that allow me free time.

And yet I expect things to go to Hell pretty soon and pretty quickly, taking me with it.

[Revi]

I guess I'm a mixture of the two, but I'm thinking that there is only one way to make it and that's to adopt a green lifestyle. Narrow is the path and green is the way.

[undertaker]

I used to be a tech support guy for United Technologies Corporation, and I had a chance to speak by telephone several times with engineers at UTC working on Renewable Energy Tech such as photovoltaics and windmills.

I told them they should be testing out these technologies on real communities - make sure they last, make sure they are easy to maintain, and then when it is more or less "perfected" they will be able to get government grants to install this stuff world-wide. For example, the Bill Gates fund.

The engineers said that they weren't allowed to go this far. They are just playing around with these technologies at their research center, but there is no aggressive program to develop it in the practical world.

They don't need to invent "magic perpetual motion and infinite energy machines," why not just perfect existing technologies? Use these technologies to collect/purify water, such as the Global Sun Oven type thing.

The high tech companies think their things have to be spectacular, like rockets and sports cars; they don't care about perfecting simple technologies with real, practical uses.

Hence, doomer, as I already said. Doomer doomer doomer.