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Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Thu 15 Feb 2007, 03:37:01

BA Da BING!!!!! :)
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby jdmartin » Thu 15 Feb 2007, 14:14:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'I') think its fun to talk about peak oil crisis and hear what people have to say about it. I just happen to be one of those who correctly understand it to be a psychology and not a real science.




Your arguments are ridiculous and not positioned in reality, and are so circular in nature that rational people cannot reason with you. I agree that there are some hard-core doomsayers on here (I for one do not believe the world's coming to a screeching halt later this year), but the science in oil extraction, technology et al is not debatable unless you have absolutely no qualifications to speak about it. And I'd say that fits just about right in this case.

Mostly, I'd say it looks like you're here just to stir up trouble.
After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby jdmartin » Thu 15 Feb 2007, 14:32:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'I') was merely pointing out that a single oil field has a finite amount of oil and once you tap it, the cost for extracting the oil does not change much as the oil gets pumped out. does that make sense? There may be a large cost in setting up all the drilling equipment, but once the oil starts pumping, then it continues to pump. i'm not sure why this concept is so hard to understand. and this concept is what the hubbert curve is based on, you just add in the fact that it works its way down to a trickle as it starts to run out. maybe i could draw a picture for you.


This quote alone shows the lack of understanding you have about the geology of oil.

In simplistic terms: When you first tap a field, it costs next to nothing to get the oil out. Much of it is flowing out under its own pressure. In the early days this was how people even knew where to look - oil simply ran out onto the ground.

As the field becomes extracted, or doesn't flow into the cut you've made, you need additional measures to get that oil out. That means drilling additional wells, pumping gases or water into the ground to create pressure, etc. This costs more money. Eventually, you are spending a lot of money to get out a little bit of oil, and you give up. The field might still have oil in it, but it's become too expensive to get it out. Can you get it out later when (if) technology is invented to get it more economically? Sure, but not as cheap as when you first started.
After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby clueless » Thu 15 Feb 2007, 14:39:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his quote alone shows the lack of understanding you have about the geology of oil.

In simplistic terms: When you first tap a field, it costs next to nothing to get the oil out. Much of it is flowing out under its own pressure. In the early days this was how people even knew where to look - oil simply ran out onto the ground.

As the field becomes extracted, or doesn't flow into the cut you've made, you need additional measures to get that oil out. That means drilling additional wells, pumping gases or water into the ground to create pressure, etc. This costs more money. Eventually, you are spending a lot of money to get out a little bit of oil, and you give up. The field might still have oil in it, but it's become too expensive to get it out. Can you get it out later when (if) technology is invented to get it more economically? Sure, but not as cheap as when you first started.


Perhaps Oil_Rocks has accepted my challenge of finding a way to suck a bowling ball through a straw, I hope he doesn't hurt himself.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby clueless » Thu 15 Feb 2007, 14:41:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n simplistic terms: When you first tap a field, it costs next to nothing to get the oil out. Much of it is flowing out under its own pressure. In the early days this was how people even knew where to look - oil simply ran out onto the ground.


Maybe Oil_Rocks is one of those advocates of blasting underground oil deposits with nukes to soften up the oil -I hope he doesn't try that with the bowling ball and garden hose.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby jdmartin » Thu 15 Feb 2007, 14:55:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', '
')You see I am actually 1 step ahead of today's greatest scientists because while i admit they are making predictions based on the best information they have at the moment, none of them is factoring in the variables of future technological improvements. And since we all know that improvement continue to be made on yearly basis, then my calculations, factoring in future developments are actually more accurate than today's scientists who simply omit those variables.

I'm sure others will look back on this thread in the years to come and get a little chuckle out of it.


:lol: :lol: :lol: That part I emboldened is some of the funniest stuff I've heard all year. I think I'll make it part of my new signature!
After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby clueless » Thu 15 Feb 2007, 15:02:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m sure others will look back on this thread in the years to come and get a little chuckle out of it.


Who needs to wait for the "years to come" to get a chucke ?

Now that I ponder that statement - This guy has to be a phony, nobody is this ignorant. I really am trying to be nice oil_rocks, In a way I respect you for being so adamant in your positon.

I think we need Hawkman or POPS to intervene in this thread, Are you guys out there ????
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby jdmartin » Thu 15 Feb 2007, 15:07:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', '
')
Actually it is not me who is ignorant. apparently you do not know your history, my friend. The shaw died on July 27, 1980 at age of 60. only a year and a half after his overthrow, completely penniless and homeless.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_shah_of_iran



You are a fool. You offer your own conjecture as facts and then present links to prove what a fool you are. I read your link. Nowhere in your link does it state that the shah was "completely penniless". Nor was he "homeless". Rather, he was without a "home country". Were you even alive when the Shah was overthrown? I was. I watched the news and followed the events. How did the penniless Shah travel all over the world, and then to the US to get expensive treatment for cancer (lymphoma, I think it was)?

While I think it's always good for this board to have opposing viewpoints, yours are idiotic and disgraceful, and prove what an inept debater you really are.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby Bas » Thu 15 Feb 2007, 15:12:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'H')ere is a quiz you guys can take to demonstrate the flaws of peak oil crisis theory:

1) How many new deposits will be found in the future?
a) None
b) Some, at a rate consistant with the past 10 years
c) infinate new deposits will be found

2) How many new drilling technologies will be developed?
a) None
b) Some, history has shown this to be true
c) infinate new technologies will be developed

3) How much oil demand will ethanol replace?
a) None, not even 1 drop
b) Likely some cars will start running on ethanol
c) 100% replacement

4) Will a new yet undiscovered fuel ever be found?
a) No
b) maybe
c) Yes

5) What will happen to oil use if the price spikes?
a) Nothing, demand will always go up
b) If the price spikes, demand will go down
c) people will just stop using oil altogether



I think almost everybody had bbbbb dudio
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby oil_rocks » Thu 15 Feb 2007, 16:05:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', 'N')owhere in your link does it state that the shah was "completely penniless".


jdmartin, i'm not quite sure why u picked this point to argue with me. I've given plenty of fodder on the subject of peak oil, but u seemed to have picked this. ok fine with me, but i completely, 100% stand by what I said.

The person who first posted about the Shaw was trying to make the case that he had devised the perfect plan where he would store away billions of dollars in oil profits so that once the US government overthrew him, he would live the life of luxury in some foreign county living off the profits that he had stored in secret bank accounts. He provided the story of the Shaw as proof to his conspiracy theory, and I had to call his BS. Anyone who knows the real story of the shaw knows that he did not leave the country as some sort of hero who went on to spend millions of dollars living the high life, as the posted had implied. Instead he was run out of the country in disgrace and didn't have access to any wealth at all. He fled from one country to another where he was completely unwelcome and died a very short time after his overthrow, in total disgrace.

he was penniless, he was homeless and he was disgraced by the entire world (including the US and Iran). if you are trying to make the case that he left as some sort of wealthy hero, you are crazy and simply don't know your history. There really is no debate on this subject, its very clear cut.

on a side note, trust me, i have never posted on this forum before under any other name. I heard about peak oil crisis on some history channel show or something and decided to look into it.

as far as my theories go, I am correct on both my main two beliefs and time will prove me right as it already has.
1) Oil will last longer than we expect - Never underestimate man's will to be wealthy and drive industry.
2) We will ALWAYS be on the verge of hitting the peak oil crisis. This has been true for 30 years, will be true in 10 years and will be true in 50 years. its a psychology.

Every year that goes by proves me more right on both theories. I'm not going to restate all my reasons here, but to many people, both of those beliefs are pretty obvious.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby clueless » Thu 15 Feb 2007, 16:08:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he person who first posted about the Shaw was trying to make the case that he had devised the perfect plan where he would store away billions of dollars in oil profits so that once the US government overthrew him


You are a very poor liar - I used the example to show you how middle eastern dictators can be overthrown. I never said anything about the US overthrowing anybody. It was the predecessor to the Shaw (PM Mossadeg) that was overthrown by the US, and the shah was overthrown by the Iranian people:

http://history.sandiego.edu/gen/20th/iran2.html

I won't bother biting your childish attempt to bait me - I will just let your stupidity speak for itself. And your desperation to be right about something is self evident.

Oil_rocks - Are you one of those socially challenged computer nerds who can only deal with life by means of an anonymous screen name and internet connection ?

Have you had any success getting the bowling ball to go through the garden hose ?
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby clueless » Thu 15 Feb 2007, 16:48:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')very year that goes by proves me more right on both theories. I'm not going to restate all my reasons here, but to many people, both of those beliefs are pretty obvious.


Didn't you state in an earlier post that your "theories" were based on science ?
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby clueless » Thu 15 Feb 2007, 16:57:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'b')oth of those beliefs are pretty obvious


What does a belief mean ? People believe many things, the Tooth Fairy, Santa Clause, The Dalia Lama, etc...

Does that make it right ? Well I think not.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby oil_rocks » Thu 15 Feb 2007, 17:27:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdmartin', 'A')s the field becomes extracted, or doesn't flow into the cut you've made, you need additional measures to get that oil out.


jdmartin, you are correct and perhaps i did not do a very good job of getting my point across. What I meant to point out is that there are many deposits that today's scientists and economists would classify as not being economically feasible to extract the oil. meaning it would take more energy and more costs to extract the oil, than you would get from the product itself. like shale oil and deep ocean drilling. so many scientists correctly look at those reserves and say that we can't count that towards the potential oil reserves because its not really usable. And from an economics standpoint they would be correct. But that is also one of my points, because using today’s technology and today's price of oil, yes we cannot count those reserves, but that doesn't mean that 10 years from now we will still be in the same situation. So my point is that this is one of those unknown factors, that we can't count today, but 10 years from now, we will be looking back and say, "well this was one of the reasons that the peak oil projections of 2007 were off and now new projections show oil lasting a little longer than we thought"

just like we can now look back at the projections made in 1997 and explain why we have had to adjust the projections from back then. This isn't even a particularly controversial point i am making. just pointing out the obvious.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby jdmartin » Thu 15 Feb 2007, 17:32:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', '
')didn't have access to any wealth at all.

he was penniless


Provide a link backing up those statements. Otherwise you're nothing but a loud-mouthed jackass who likes to hear himself speak.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby clueless » Thu 15 Feb 2007, 17:41:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o my point is that this is one of those unknown factors


Your theories are not only just theories, but also based on unknown factors. You have stated it yourself. And I also noticed you have changed your own thesis statment from their being "no such thing as Peak Oil" to the "Peak Oil Crisis Theory".

JDmartin - It would be a waste of your time to read ll 22 pages of this thread, but take my word for it - He does this all the time. I think he would be a great politician, and sadly most in this country would buy his rhetoric.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby oil_rocks » Thu 15 Feb 2007, 17:43:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('clueless', 'T')he Dictators know one day they will be invaded and taken over, they have been occupied on and off for over 75 years, by either foriegn armies or corporations, so the more they can pump and sock away the more they will have when they are forced to flea - Like the Shah did in the 70's.

ok, you didn't specifically mention the US (although it is clearly implied). But you did put forward the Shah as proof of your theory that dictators are stockpiling oil money to live off of once they are overthrown. and that simply did not happen with the shah. it was a nice try though.

clueless, i think you should back off a little and allows others to post before taking your cheap shots. your witty comments are really not that witty.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby clueless » Thu 15 Feb 2007, 17:50:55

I implied nothing and if middle eastern dictators are not "stockpiling" thier money then what are they doing with it ? Giving it to charity ?

Did you know Iran was under British and foreign occupation from the early 1900's and the Saudi Royals cut an oil for protection deal in the 1950'a (I am too busy to look that one up can somebody help me on that one?).

How many military bases are in Iraq, Afghanistan, Quatar, Oman, Saudi Arabia etc... If there is no threat of public unrest or invasion then why the military buildup ??? Or do we have a special mission to only liberate the oppressed people in that particular time zone ?

I don't try to be witty just truthfull.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby Ingenuity_Gap » Thu 15 Feb 2007, 17:55:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'Y')ou see I am actually 1 step ahead of today's greatest scientists ...


Whatta maroon! Whatta ignoranimus!
"The world is becoming too complex and too fast-paced to manage." - Thomas Homer-Dixon
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