[Leanan]

There are some who thing Saudi and Russia are already in decline. Though I'm sure they'll do all right if oil goes to $500, even if they don't have as much to sell.

[Tyler_JC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', 'Y')es i am sure that Russia and SA will expirience an imminent decline if the price goes to $500 :sarcasm:

[Tyler_JC]

So I hear that Duncan maintains that 2030 date as the end of industrial civilization. That means that the decline must be faster than previously predicted, right? As a last side note on $500 oil. Want to see what America's balance sheet looks like with $500 oil?

Cost of total US oil imports at that price? $2.37 TRILLION dollars.

% of economy devoted to oil imports alone at that price? 18.2%!!!

Current total imports of all goods and service? 1.87 trillion dollars.

The price of our imports would increase by more than 100% with $500 oil assuming that there is NO inflation created by increased oil prices. ...total fiscal collapse... Let's hope we don't see $500 oil any time soon.

[chris-h]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'I')n the short-term there will be a few winners among the many who will lose so very much.

[Tyler_JC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'I')n the short-term there will be a few winners among the many who will lose so very much.

[chris-h]

Tyler_JC $500 means economic disaster yes. But it will not be worse than a war. I know i would prefer $500 oil than get drafted . With oil at $500 suburbia dies everyone goes within bicycle range.

So if oil goes to $500 i would have to:
1)Use a bicycle to go to work. Not a big deal with the roads empty.
2) I would have to heat one room only in winter . No big deal.
3) Forget air travel and travel for entertaiment . No big deal.
4) Forget meat and fish . No big deal .I can survive with rice and bread.
5) Repair everything instead of thowing away and buyin new. No big deal.

Rent and healthcare and mortages and work could be solved with the old soviet way ( It is not communism we will rename it to something else ) But i and everybody would survive.Oh yes capitalism would die .Communism or dictatorship or theocracy or facism would definetly replace democrasy with $500 oil. But people would survive .

[eastbay]

Oh no doubt about it the net will be astounding losses all around. Losses the likes of which humans rarely experience, but on a scale never seen before will start to kick in starting quite soon for some and a maybe bit later for others.

But those who enjoy brief economic gain as prices of various vital necessities increase ultimately will lose by all measures.

It will be an incredible event to experience.

[eastbay]

chris-h,

..... uh, go to work where?

.... and remaining suburban dwellers would bicycle where?

I don't mean to come off as a smart alek, but seriously there will be nowhere to go or work.

[BrazilianPO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'I')n the short-term there will be a few winners among the many who will lose so very much.

[chris-h]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'c')hris-h,

..... uh, go to work where?

.... and remaining suburban dwellers would bicycle where?

I don't mean to come off as a smart alek, but seriously there will be nowhere to go or work.

[chris-h]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BrazilianPO', '
')
That is a good point. Any country with large amounts of storable and transferable energy (coal, oil, uranium, etc) should expect to be labeled as a source of WMD and prepare for invasion and democratization.

[JPL]

After reading that, I think I'm gonna plant more some trees tomorrow. And the next day, and the next, guess what I'm going to do?

One word, four letters, begins with 't' ends with 'e'.

Pleuggh... Good ole' Duncan, says it how it is, huh?

Still, it's been nice knowin' y'all...

JPL

[seahorse]

I'm having problems opening or downloading, and probably won't be able to correct from home. Can anyone post some comments from the article or give some analysis?

[chris-h]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'I')'m having problems opening or downloading, and probably won't be able to correct from home. Can anyone post some comments from the article or give some analysis?

[Leanan]

And where would one get rice and bread?

Let's face it. If the result of peak oil is most of us working as farm serfs on the ConAgra plantation, most people would see that as collapse. That's Kunstler's vision.

The thing is, even if a few get outrageously wealthy, they need a class of labor, skilled and unskilled, to support them in the style to which they are accustomed. Without that, their lifestyle is going to take a hit, too.

[cube]

Isn't it funny how the "information age/economy" is basically being powered by coal?

The same energy source that started the industrial revolution in England about 300 years ago.

One of the most "interesting" points in the essay was an observation/theory that we'll "regress" back to coal. The energy source of the nearterm-future is not nuclear fussion, hydrogen, or alternative power....it's coal! If there is any doubt this should eliminate it:

China to open one coal power station per week

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', ' ')
So if oil goes to $500 i would have to.

1)Use a bicycle to go to work. Not a big deal with the roads empty.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('chris-h', 'T')yler_JC $500 means economic disaster yes.
But it will not be worse than a war.
I know i would prefer $500 oil than get drafted .
With oil at $500 suburbia dies everyone goes within bicycle range.

[chris-h]

MonteQuest and Jack you are right people will die in the USA.
However they will not die the way wou expect at all.
Tney will not die in a disorganised way by gangs or starvation.

They will be executed by the new american state.

The supreme dictator whatever his name is will make some laws like:

1) Cars belong to the state now . Disobidience means execution.
2) All property belongs to the state now. Disobidience means execution.
3)Turn all guns to the state now. Disobidience means execution.
4) All hail the new order now. Disobidience means execution.
5)Forget your old jobs.Your new jobs will all be manual unless you are the 5% of the inner circle or whatever.Disobidience means execution.
6)You will go to the city if we order you or to the country if we decide that is best .
Disobidience means execution.
Execution could be immediate like being put on a pike or slow by being work to death in the coalmines.

Mu guess is the about 20 million will be executed for the new order to be established exactly like Stalin did.

Of course everything will be for the common good.

MonteQuest and Jack the flaw in your arguments is in my honest opinion that you underestimate the power of organised state.The organised state does not require oil or nat gas or alternatives. A little coal or wood is enough.
The USA state especially is the most powerful and the most organised state that the world has ever known.It has all by itshelf enforced its will to the rest of the world.
As an example Resources extra cheap IP extra expensive.
You can be very sure that when it cannot enforce the power outside for the benefit of americans in will enforce it in the inside for it own benefit and survival.
And you can be very sure that the militias and libertarias will provide no more challenge than a very fun and short target practice for them .Iraq does not work because genocide is avoided.It will not be avoided in the USA.
And our leaders know all this . Guess what their plans are.
Guess why they are increasing the money for the Army.
Their answer for peak oil is a brutal dictatorship.With them on top.
Nothing changes for them.
MonteQuest there is always work for manual labors.

[chris-h]

Why the new american state dictatorship be stable ?
Why it will not collapse ?

Well very simply when the will of the people does not matter and when we can sacrifice humans to build things things become very easy.

Rail will be be built.
Streetcars will be built.
Bycicles will be used.
People will move where it is convinient for the state.
10 and 20 people can survive in a single big home.
50 million will work as farmers.
Almost all will work hard manual labor.
Nobody will consume for fun.
State will have power of life death .
Such a state needs very little oil or none.
Such a state can work with coal.
People will obey or be executed for disobidience.
Such a state can be like Byzantium and be stable for 1000 years.

And that is why The Olduvai Theory is pure BS IMHO.

There are shades of gray.
It is not WHITE or BLACK.
It is not that one moment we are on the top of the world and the other civilization ends.