[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'H')ayward also said the start-up of Atlantis, another Gulf of Mexico project, is now due by the end of 2007. The company had previously said production was scheduled to start in the second half of the year. The platform's planned capacity is 200,000 barrels of oil and 180 million cubic feet of gas a day.
About Thunder Horse, Hayward said "it will happen." The project is now three years behind the original schedule. Thunder Horse is "something that hasn't been done before...We probably pushed the technology envelope a little bit too far," he added.
Hayward said the new guidance, more cautious than previously announced, was largely due to supply-chain issues, with the oil services sector now running at full tilt. "There was no new incident. It's just recognizing the reality of the industry today," he said.

[AirlinePilot]

I have to agree with you Joe. It's almost macabe the dance we are doing. The daily analyst story, the constant delays. There is just so much out there pointing in the wrong direction. How could it be so that just a few of us can actually see the massive wreck coming?

Some times I wonder about that. While I hope for a slow slide it just doesnt look like it will play out that way. As for timing its anyones guess, but i see the whole thing like an avalanche. Once it lets lose, its going to be large and there will be no stopping it.

[seldom_seen]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse2', 'I')t makes one wonder whether the new "JacK" discovery will ever amount to anything.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'I') have to agree with you Joe. It's almost macabe the dance we are doing. The daily analyst story, the constant delays. There is just so much out there pointing in the wrong direction. How could it be so that just a few of us can actually see the massive wreck coming?
Some times I wonder about that. While I hope for a slow slide it just doesnt look like it will play out that way. As for timing its anyones guess, but i see the whole thing like an avalanche. Once it lets lose, its going to be large and there will be no stopping it.

[nth]

BP is just plain screwing up. Shell, Chevron, and Exxon are able to get back to at least 90% after the hurricane.

From what we know so far, Thunder Horse would be delay even if no hurricane came through. For some reason, the other oil majors were able to secure their required resources. As for Jack, if they ever decide to do the go ahead, I am sure it will be a category 4 safe FSPO. Also, they may just move the ship if hurricanes are too much a threat like they do for ice bergs in Arctic.

[DantesPeak]

This is the first news on Jack in some time, apparently further development of Jack has not yet been “sanctioned”. Previously we have learned in December(?) that absolutely nothing will be going on at the Jack #2 site for at least six months.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')P Alert - Energy 7 Feb 2007 OK DevonEnergy Q4ern 02 07
Devon and its co-owners conducted a successful production test of the deepwater Jack No. 2 well in the Gulf of Mexico's Lower Tertiary Trend. During the test, the Jack No. 2 flowed at a sustained rate of 6,000 barrels of oil per day from approximately 40 percent of the total net pay measured in the well. The successful production test was an important milestone in moving the Jack project toward sanctioning and development. Devon has a 25 percent working interest in the Jack prospect.

[seahorse2]

If they describe Thunderhorse as "pushing the envelope" how will they describe the development of Jack? At the time Jack was in the news, they were talking about not only the depth of recovery which had never been done, but they weren't exactly sure how or what to put the oil into when they pumped it up from 20K feet.

Its definitely the end of cheap oil but, for all practical purposes, it may be the end of oil if we can't get it out of the ground in sufficient amounts to satisfy demand.

Further, with BP down etc., there is growing evidence we are getting ever closer to the significant "crossover" event where nonopec production plateaus or falls and is overtaken by Opec production.

[nth]

Chevron is the operator of Jack.
They have their resources tied up in other GoM fields. Tahiti is the main one. This will be their main hub for further deep water production. Fields like Jack will be tied back to Tahiti.
Basically, Walker Ridge and Green Canyon will be tied back to Tahiti.

It will be interesting to see which one Chevron will green light on next for the Walker Ridge and Green Canyon area. There are several fields for them to go after. Jack is the least explore one, but probably holds more potential in my opinion. Big Foot had a few sidetracks done. I am not geologist or expert, but I think Jack will not be next on the list.

[DantesPeak]

Jack #2, after laying covered in the dark murky depths of the Gulf of Mexico for a year or so, will be revisited by Chevron later in the this year:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') second delineation well will be drilled at the Chevron Corp. (CVX)-led Jack project in the second half of 2007, Hadden said. Jack serves as the bellwether for the exploitation potential of the lower Tertiary trend, a rich hydrocarbons layer buried deep beneath the Gulf's subsoil.

[Leanan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', ' ')From what we know so far, Thunder Horse would be delay even if no hurricane came through.

[Aaron]

link
A friend who works this project told me yesterday that the recent delays announced for this project are the result of problems with much of the infrastructure. Apparently, technical difficulties have forced them to disassemble the active drilling components... ship them back to the mainland to be retooled or replaced.

Basically they are going to rebuild much of the drilling apparatus due to mechanical failures associated with the depth of this project. 2008 is now their best guess for beginning to produce oil. (I think that's irresponsibly optimistic myself)

This neatly illustrates the problems associated with finding & exploiting less conventional resources. The oil is there, it's just damn hard to get to it. ... & it's expensive.

I see this as yet another confirmation that big oil understands very well about peak oil & is turning to increasingly difficult to extract resources. The older petrologist's I know laugh at these kinds of projects... hearkening back to the glory days of wild cats when truly giant discoveries were made.

Praise HawkMan

[skyemoor]

I wonder how much of this is also related to hurricane damage? I still find significant irony in the possible involvement of AGW-induced storms limiting our access to more AGW feedstock...

[Kingcoal]

We all know that the thunderhorse story will be a more and more common one in the future.

[mekrob]

Rigzone reports that Thunderhorse (250kpd) and Atlantis (200kpd) are both delayed. Thunderhorse until the end of 2008. So now we have two more years for more delays for Thunderhorse.

[DantesPeak]

Aaron, I read something similar to what you said near the end of last summer. Therefore I knew it was a lie for them to say they could have got it back up and running before well into 2008 – at best.

Considering that there are strict rules made by the SEC to prevent inaccurate forward projections and forecasts, one wonders why they are lying. My own opinion is that they are doing this to show they are doing something important for the country. Therefore they are undeserving of further 'windfall profits' and other kinds of new taxes. As some of you know by reading the Weekly Inventory thread, there was a new 'inventory' tax put into effect last year on 75% of the unrealized gain on oil inventories (but this only applies to large oil companies).

[nth]

I don't think they purposely lie about this. This sort of thing goes on even for non-oil projects like software or hardware or even airplane production. Project planners and engineers disagree constantly on when projects will get completed with planners pushing the envelope.

As for the end of cheap oil, does anyone know any oil company who publicly states that cheap oil will return in the future? The only oil expert that I heard such nonsense is from CERA, which puzzles me as their papers do not claim as such, but Yergin is always quoted saying that he won't be surprise to see oil prices fall. &*(&^#$

[Leanan]

Seems like the extreme pressure may be causing problems that were not anticipated by the engineers.

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', ' ') Rigzone

[Aaron]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'S')eems like the extreme pressure may be causing problems that were not anticipated by the engineers.

[grabby]

Look up "Able Archer 83" on wikipedia. interestingly it is the topic for today, kind of interesting. Remember today we have even quicker and more accurate tools than the one that gave them the worries last time.