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Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby TonyPrep » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 22:50:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Prince', 'C')lose this thread already.
this one has probably gone on a bit too long but this kind of thread is useful for newbies who may be searching for a good denial argument. It's useful because it demonstrates that optimism about being able to continue business as usual is always (so far) based on wishful thinking. Perhaps threads such as this can get people past the denial stage and into an acceptance of the finite nature of the world.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby gego » Tue 30 Jan 2007, 22:54:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Prince', 'S')omebody asked this earlier, but let me ask again... why are we still feeding this troll? He's obviously doing this to (a) push your buttons and (b) for attention. He's accomplishing both.

As for the original poster, oil_rocks, perhaps the moderators need to make him the lead guitarist on the peakoil.com BANNED!

Close this thread already.


I don't think that this thread should be banned or closed.

I a nearby town, there is a fellow who is unquestionably the village idiot. He is pathetic, but people are kind, and understanding to him. If there is not a Libertarian candidate on the election ballot, I even write his name in under the theory that an idiot could do as well as anyone available to elect.

I think we should view this thread with the same compassion. Some people do not possess adequate wattage to generate sufficient light to see reality; it is not their fault, and we should be understanding. Also some people have personality problems that give them the need for attention, negative or positive, or the feeling of triumph, regardless of their ability to present logical arguments to justify their ascendancy to this position.

Other than suggesting that this thread be transferred to the Hall of Flames based on the likely disingenuous motives of its author, I think it should be continued. I am reminded of an English professor once whose big theme was that literature should never be censored because the bad gave us the contrast to appreciate the good. We need idiots posting on this site.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby gego » Wed 31 Jan 2007, 00:12:17

By the way guys, I have just been notified by MonteQuest that I have been banned for moderator disrespect. It is justified because I have respect for most of his posts, but do not respect his tyrannical attitude as a moderator, but in a dictatorship there is no appeal.

I suppose I am an abrasive guy.

Actually I will be surprised if this post appears, but then maybe it will take him a little time to update the system.

In any event, I do abhor censorship, and I to thing that respect is earned, not commanded, so I guess I am guilty of moderator disrespect, not to mention a lot of other disrespect.

Bye.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby TonyPrep » Wed 31 Jan 2007, 00:37:51

Bummer. I hadn't noticed that much disrespect from you. As a long time poster, I would have thought you'd be given just a warning.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby oil_rocks » Wed 31 Jan 2007, 05:20:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Prince', 'A')s for the original poster, oil_rocks, perhaps the moderators need to make him the lead guitarist on the peakoil.com BANNED!

Close this thread already.


Its amazing to me how so many people want this thread banned simply because someone is stating an opinion that is different from the majority. For all there talk of tolerance, its interesting to note that its really the left that has cornered the market on intolerance.

I'll try stating my position in a different way and notice that my theory is based on science and common sense and historical trends, and not simply unbridled passion like so many on this forum.

If we look at the peak oil crisis theory, i can honestly say that i believe in it, or at least a version of it. And i can also say that i believe that oil is a finite resource that will run out some day. The only difference i have with all of you is the timeline and the amount of shock that will hit our society as a result of it. And i'm quite certain i'm right about this. let me explain:

If we look at how this theory will play its self out, some people believe in the hardcore, far-left version of the theory which basically considers that all the worlds oil reserves are currently tapped and being drilled. they will soon follow the hubbert curve and begin running out which will cause total devastation to our economy. probably half of you on this forum believe in this version of the peak oil crisis.

Now others believe that peak may be delayed some x number of years because of various factors... new technology, finding new deposits, conservation, new fuels etc. Note, i am not saying that these new discoveries will prevent the oil crisis, but merely push it back a couple of years.

Now, my view is closer to the far right extreme view of the theory. which simply means that i believe there will be enough of the factors listed above to push it back many years. possibly dozens of years. maybe even, dare i say hundreds of years.

for those who believe the total societal collapse is imminent, i see those as the truely radical ones because it means they are on the far, far extreme left fringe of the theory. The ONLY way you could believe that is if you believe:
1) No new technologies will ever be invented
2) No new deposits will ever be found
3) No existing but untapped fields will ever be tapped
4) No country will ever be able to conserve even 1 barrel of oil
AND... and
5) No new forms of fuel will ever be found.

to me that's radical thinking!
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby oil_rocks » Wed 31 Jan 2007, 05:35:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'Y')ou make absurd statements like the first drop of oil produced from a field cost the same as the last drop.


i never said i believe that. I said the hubbert curve is based on that principal. which is why i say, yes, the hubbert curve applies to a single deposit, but not when u look at the earth as a whole. when u look at the earth as a whole you have to factor in that some deposits are more difficult to reach than others. To me that seems a pretty obvious statement.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Wed 31 Jan 2007, 06:04:53

Those calling for the closing of the thread (though its' understandable) are wrong, as anyone reading with any hint of a brain will see that 'oil_rocks's arguements are total and utter lunacy.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Wed 31 Jan 2007, 06:05:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'f')or those who believe the total societal collapse is imminent, i see those as the truely radical ones because it means they are on the far, far extreme left fringe of the theory. The ONLY way you could believe that is if you believe:
1) No new technologies will ever be invented
2) No new deposits will ever be found
3) No existing but untapped fields will ever be tapped
4) No country will ever be able to conserve even 1 barrel of oil
AND... and
5) No new forms of fuel will ever be found.

to me that's radical thinking!


Welcome to our world!

Look. you ARE entitled to your opinion, that is a given here. The problem is, right now your opinion is not based on anything which involves reality NOW. I dont neccesarily disagree with your premise, it IS POSSIBLE. My problem (and Im definitely NOT left leaning) is that after two years here, and other places, I dont see the state of our science nor our discoveries being able to make up for the LACK OF TIME WE HAVE TO TRANSITION. Your points above all can be modified with a simple statement...... add the words "in time" to all of those and that is pretty much my belief.

None of what you believe can or will work If we have a collpased economy due to hgih energy costs. You just cant get there from where we are now. On the one hand is a harsh cold reality some of us seem ready to accept. Many will not. If you don't, than thats cool, personally I plan to at least meet what may be coming with an open mind and the ability to do some preparation for a time when things may not go as well as they are now. If Im wrong than no harm done really the way i see it.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby Bas » Wed 31 Jan 2007, 06:26:27

Just a quick thought, (as I haven't really followed the thread), do you think that oil production will never peak ie will be bigger every year for all eternity?
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby Bas » Wed 31 Jan 2007, 06:35:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ts amazing to me how so many people want this thread banned simply because someone is stating an opinion that is different from the majority. For all there talk of tolerance, its interesting to note that its really the left that has cornered the market on intolerance.


I think people just think it's a pretentious and condecending title under which you posted, which doesn't have much to do with an opinion but more with trying to be annoying.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby TonyPrep » Wed 31 Jan 2007, 06:45:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'I')ts amazing to me how so many people want this thread banned
How many is that, oil_rocks? I only recall one person making that request, though there are a few posts I've missed. Would you like to provide links to the amazing number of people who want this thread banned?$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'I')f we look at how this theory will play its self out, some people believe in the hardcore, far-left version of the theory which basically considers that all the worlds oil reserves are currently tapped and being drilled.
Could you provide any links? In two years of looking at peak oil, I've never come across such a view. As small finds are continuing to be made and a few places are yet to be drilled, that would be an absurd position. If you can't provide any proof that such a view is anything more than a fringe view, then please drop this line.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'N')ow others believe that peak may be delayed some x number of years because of various factors... new technology, finding new deposits, conservation, new fuels etc. Note, i am not saying that these new discoveries will prevent the oil crisis, but merely push it back a couple of years.
I wouldn't use the term "delayed". Most people take these factors into account, to some degree, when trying to come up with a date. All of these things are factors and should always be taken into account when trying to determine the date. It's best, however, to try and be realistic about them.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'i') believe there will be enough of the factors listed above to push it back many years. possibly dozens of years. maybe even, dare i say hundreds of years.
Exactly what I've been saying about your view: it's a belief. You started your post off saying your "theory" is based on science. Your theory is actually an hypothesis, based on belief. That's fine, but don't try to attribute characteristics to it that it doesn't have.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'f')or those who believe the total societal collapse is imminent, i see those as the truely radical ones because it means they are on the far, far extreme left fringe of the theory. The ONLY way you could believe that is if you believe:
1) No new technologies will ever be invented
2) No new deposits will ever be found
3) No existing but untapped fields will ever be tapped
4) No country will ever be able to conserve even 1 barrel of oil
AND... and
5) No new forms of fuel will ever be found.Please explain how rapid collapse requires all of those things. Just stating it doesn't make it so. Collapse comes, for those people, after peak, or at least once supply can't keep up with demand. So all of the points you present are false. Once peak occurs and alternatives can't keep up with the decline, then rapid collapse is possible (only possible, not certain) if the realisation of what that means sinks in.

Now please don't keep claiming that your position is based on anything other than belief. You've presented no evidence of any sort and have repeatedly avoided many points raised that rebut your arguments.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby TonyPrep » Wed 31 Jan 2007, 06:56:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'Y')ou make absurd statements like the first drop of oil produced from a field cost the same as the last drop.


i never said i believe that. I said the hubbert curve is based on that principal. which is why i say, yes, the hubbert curve applies to a single deposit, but not when u look at the earth as a whole. when u look at the earth as a whole you have to factor in that some deposits are more difficult to reach than others. To me that seems a pretty obvious statement.
Since you seem to have modified your view, let me remind you what you wrote here:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'T')his is your other mistake. the hubbert curve is easy to understand and its easy to see how it works on a single field and its easy to say, "now just image the whole earth as a big field". makes sense, right? well no wrong. A single field has a known amount of oil and the cost of extracting it is the same for the first drop as for the last (relatively speaking). The size of the earth-field is not a finite size.
You mention Hubbert and then clearly try to argue why he's wrong, including your now denied view that the last drop in a field has the same extraction cost as the first. Hubbert's model does not rely on the belief that you stated, nor do you suggest that it does.

Since you've now changed your mind on this, perhaps you could at least acknowledge that?
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 31 Jan 2007, 09:59:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'T')he ONLY way you could believe that is if you believe:
1) No new technologies will ever be invented
2) No new deposits will ever be found
3) No existing but untapped fields will ever be tapped
4) No country will ever be able to conserve even 1 barrel of oil
AND... and
5) No new forms of fuel will ever be found.

to me that's radical thinking!

1. Read: Technologies irrelevant to large scale energy production will be invented. Technologies replacing oil are unlikely to be invented on time.
2. Read: Fewer and fewer deposits will be found as time pass.
3. It will be uneconomical (base on EROEI) to tap many known fields (especially deep fields...).
4. Read: Small amounts of fuel may be conserved before modern economy begins to crumble.
5. Read: Dilithium crystals will not be found. Neither there are any undiscovered/unknown chemical elements left in Earth crust.

It is rather acknowledgment of physical limits.

Radical thinking looks like that:
1. Steam engine 250 years ago.
2. Computers/Internet now.
3. Time travel within next 250 years (or even faster, if you wish to "accelerate").
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby clueless » Wed 31 Jan 2007, 11:28:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1')) No new technologies will ever be invented
2) No new deposits will ever be found
3) No existing but untapped fields will ever be tapped
4) No country will ever be able to conserve even 1 barrel of oil
AND... and
5) No new forms of fuel will ever be found.


These are (again) absurd extreme strawman arguments. My basis is current established trends are going to continue ( which means declines will offset any new production) and no new technology will be developed that will make any meaningfull difference.

As I have stated and as you ignored before, what else can be found in abundance that can be burned ? How about offering some suggestions ? Or are you going to stick with the "something will come up" thesis.
Last edited by clueless on Wed 31 Jan 2007, 12:41:09, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 31 Jan 2007, 12:36:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'B')y the way guys, I have just been notified by MonteQuest that I have been banned for moderator disrespect. It is justified because I have respect for most of his posts, but do not respect his tyrannical attitude as a moderator, but in a dictatorship there is no appeal.


gego is being banned for two weeks for publicly questioning moderator actions and for failure to respect moderator warnings, both in violation of the COC. This was following a personal attack in the regular forums on another member where his offensive post was deleted by me as per the COC.

Nothing tyrannical about it.

Violations of this type are an automatic two week ban as per the COC.

Everyone should know this by now.

In fact, this post of his is in violation of the COC.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')embers who choose not to acknowledge moderator warnings, show lack of respect for the moderators or news editors, or publicly question their actions, will be immediately banned for 2 weeks for Moderator Evasion.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')o not publicly post correspondence you receive from moderators and administrators.


You cannot even mention moderator actions in the public forms. If you have and issue with site moderation, you send a pm or e-mail to the moderator of the site admin. Period. No exceptions.
Last edited by MonteQuest on Wed 31 Jan 2007, 13:15:59, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby clueless » Wed 31 Jan 2007, 12:39:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'V')iolations of this type are an automatic two week ban as per the COC.


Come on GEGO, two weeks is a walk in the park. You can do that standing on your head with one hand tied behind your back.

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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby oil_rocks » Wed 31 Jan 2007, 14:09:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'Y')ou make absurd statements like the first drop of oil produced from a field cost the same as the last drop.


i never said i believe that. I said the hubbert curve is based on that principal. which is why i say, yes, the hubbert curve applies to a single deposit, but not when u look at the earth as a whole. when u look at the earth as a whole you have to factor in that some deposits are more difficult to reach than others. To me that seems a pretty obvious statement.
Since you seem to have modified your view, let me remind you what you wrote here:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'T')his is your other mistake. the hubbert curve is easy to understand and its easy to see how it works on a single field and its easy to say, "now just image the whole earth as a big field". makes sense, right? well no wrong. A single field has a known amount of oil and the cost of extracting it is the same for the first drop as for the last (relatively speaking). The size of the earth-field is not a finite size.
You mention Hubbert and then clearly try to argue why he's wrong, including your now denied view that the last drop in a field has the same extraction cost as the first. Hubbert's model does not rely on the belief that you stated, nor do you suggest that it does.

Since you've now changed your mind on this, perhaps you could at least acknowledge that?


TonyPrep, i'm not exactly sure what you are trying to argue with this post. I've re-read both my quotes several times and they are completely consistant yet you seem to be trying to say that i have changed position. let me try for a 3rd time to say the exact same thing i said two times before and maybe it will make sense to you:

I was merely pointing out that a single oil field has a finite amount of oil and once you tap it, the cost for extracting the oil does not change much as the oil gets pumped out. does that make sense? There may be a large cost in setting up all the drilling equipment, but once the oil starts pumping, then it continues to pump. i'm not sure why this concept is so hard to understand. and this concept is what the hubbert curve is based on, you just add in the fact that it works its way down to a trickle as it starts to run out. maybe i could draw a picture for you.
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby dinopello » Wed 31 Jan 2007, 14:56:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'm')aybe i could draw a picture for you.


I'm sure we'd all love to see it...
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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby UncoveringTruths » Wed 31 Jan 2007, 15:10:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'm')aybe i could draw a picture for you.


I'm sure we'd all love to see it...


Does it look something like this. :roll:

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Re: Sorry, No such thing as Peak Oil

Unread postby PrairieMule » Wed 31 Jan 2007, 15:26:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('oil_rocks', 'm')aybe i could draw a picture for you.


I'm sure we'd all love to see it...


Feel free to draw us a picture. May I ask the source of which expert has this childlike faith in technological fix to time and logistical barriers?

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