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BP sees 6th straight production drop

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BP sees 6th straight production drop

Unread postby mekrob » Tue 09 Jan 2007, 08:39:23

Link

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LONDON (AFP) - BP, the world's second largest oil company, has said that its energy production dropped by five percent in the final three months of 2006, the sixth quarterly drop in a row.


So it's pretty clear that even the majors are having a tough time getting oil as they are now past peak, it seems after 6 3-month data points. Because the majors like BP are not restricted to only one region, but operate all over the world (but not in every place), this is definitely an indication that the world is heading towards peak very soon (on a larger timescale) and not just the US or England.
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Re: BP sees 6th straight production drop

Unread postby morph » Tue 09 Jan 2007, 08:41:12

contrasting report on the bbc??

here
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Re: BP sees 6th straight production drop

Unread postby chris-h » Tue 09 Jan 2007, 08:43:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', '[')url=http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20070109/wl_uk_afp/britainenergyoil]Link[/url]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')
LONDON (AFP) - BP, the world's second largest oil company, has said that its energy production dropped by five percent in the final three months of 2006, the sixth quarterly drop in a row.


Because the majors like BP are not restricted to only one region, but operate all over the world (but not in every place), this is definitely an indication that the world is heading towards peak very soon (on a larger timescale) and not just the US or England.



I do not dissagree that peak oil has already happened or will happen the next 5 years but this is more like an indication of nationalization (in gas and oil resources) and of the growing power of China rather than peak oil.
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Re: BP sees 6th straight production drop

Unread postby mekrob » Tue 09 Jan 2007, 09:11:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('morph', 'c')ontrasting report on the bbc??

here


A quick search on Google News shows that most (except BBC) state it's a drop.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')I do not dissagree that peak oil has already happened or will happen the next 5 years but this is more like an indication of nationalization (in gas and oil resources) and of the growing power of China rather than peak oil.


It's not an exact proportion, but it is close enough because BP operates all over the world. But due to nationalization of a great deal of producing nations, the majors will most likely peak several years before the world-wide peak.
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Re: BP sees 6th straight production drop

Unread postby mekrob » Tue 09 Jan 2007, 09:18:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Overall BP production in 3Q06 is expected to be around 3,800 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboed).



3rd quarter had losses due to Alyeska being shutdown, so their capacity is down, although production isn't. Capacity matters a bit more as production rates are only for current rates and can change rapidly in either direction.

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Re: BP sees 6th straight production drop

Unread postby TommyJefferson » Tue 09 Jan 2007, 13:42:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', '.')..this is definitely an indication that the world is heading towards peak very soon (on a larger timescale) and not just the US or England.


Production can vary for a number of reasons that have nothing to do with P.O.
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Re: BP sees 6th straight production drop

Unread postby mekrob » Tue 09 Jan 2007, 18:41:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Production can vary for a number of reasons that have nothing to do with P.O.


True, but their capacity has consistently gone down for over a year and a half. That is much more telling than a single drop in production.
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Re: BP sees 6th straight production drop

Unread postby TreebeardsUncle » Tue 09 Jan 2007, 19:41:06

Hi.
Well, the media will spin this as nationalization and inefficiencies in state-run oil production programs are responsible for limitations on supply and for running up prices.
g
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Re: BP sees 6th straight production drop

Unread postby MrBill » Wed 10 Jan 2007, 05:26:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreebeardsUncle', 'H')i.
Well, the media will spin this as nationalization and inefficiencies in state-run oil production programs are responsible for limitations on supply and for running up prices.
g


I do not think it is purely media spin. Worldwide resource nationalization in places like Venezuela, Russia and Bolivia are fact not fiction.

National oil companies are gaining an increased percentage of reserves at the expense of multinational oil companies. Who may in the end become mere service providers and not owning their reserves.

In this respect they may look more like Baker, Schlumberger or Haliburton as oilfield supply and service companies rather than integrated oil giants in the future. However, even national oil companies like Petrobraz are partnering with other national oil companies like PEMEX or PVDSA to offer their skills in deepwater offshore drilling for example.

The trend is for CNOC and ONGC to partner with companies like Gazprom who are aligned with the state and/or state owned. And this is something that RDS, XOM, COP and BP must factor into their investment decisions. Especially, as the sanctity of the contract no longer means much to many governments who are prepared to aggressively take when the getting is good despite sunk costs when prices were low that make walking away from existing projects extremely difficult for the multis.

However, drops in 'potential' production from waste, civil wars and conflicts, under-investment, corruption and incompetence should not be confused with peak oil the geological phenomenon. They may be related, but they are not the same.
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