[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TigPil', 'S')trategic metals can always be recycled although the cost of extracting the materials from manufactured goods may be substantially higher than mining.

[TigPil]

With respect to metals, I was thinking of studies like this:

http://www.edie.net/news/news_story.asp?id=11010&channel=0

But I think those estimates are based on a population of 6 billion and growing so it may not be much of a concern for a post-peak world.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gazzatrone', 'I')s it reasonable to assume that when the poor die of so will the rich that buy the food the poor grow?

[Revi]

[/quote]

Is it reasonable to assume that when the poor die of so will the rich that buy the food the poor grow?

I think we can put ourselves back on track with this thread concerning EROEI. Especially when you apply it to food production.[/quote]

I think it's already happening. The idea of turning all our excess corn into car fuel will kill lots of people who use that corn to make tortillas in Mexico and Central America. What are they going to use? The land is all taken up down past the middle of Mexico with subsistence farming, and market growing. There is no way they can support Mexico City off of what is grown around there. The extra corn must come from the US. They buy that corn with money that comes from things like oil production, and maybe money derived from industries. When the price of corn goes up, people starve. Simple as that.

There's an old saying: When the US sneezes, Mexico catches pneumonia. The poorer nations will feel it first, but we're next.

[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'I')t sounds to me like we are quibbling over the exact details of a horror show.

[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')hey buy that corn with money that comes from things like oil production

[WildRose]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TigPil', '
')
As I tried to demonstrate earlier, most of the developed world can produce enough food to feed itself from a caloric perspective. Disruptions in the developing world will impact the variety of what will be available. For example, since there are no developed tropical nations, bananas, pineapples, coconuts, coffee and chocolate may not be readily available. I'm sure the list will be more extensive but I don't know the specifics of current production patterns to give an exhaustive list.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WildRose', 'O')f course, growing everything locally will also mean that we are at the mercy of our climate - a cool, rainy summer would mean a significant shortfall in the crops produced, whether those crops are vegetables or grains.

[TigPil]

WildRose: Those are definitely some interesting questions.

The current agricultural production patterns have more to do with industrial agriculture than the specific suitability of crops to specific regions. It is economically more efficient for one company to raise all the lettuce they produce in California rather than raise it in a variety of different locations. Thus the agricultural output of specific states and regions has grown more and more specialized. Rising transport costs will reverse this pattern as the economic distance between points of consumption and production increases, regional production will become more diversified.

However, there are absolute limits that are related to climate and geography. Not all areas are suitable for producing every variety of crop. This has been historically the case and one can compare the culinary traditions of the North European countries (England, Germany, Scandinavia, Russia) with the South European ones (Italy, Spain, France) to see the impact of food diversity on culinary traditions. The same will hold true in North America, with regions further north having a lower diversity in terms of local production (assuming there is almost no interregional trade) than those closer to the equator. Seasonal availability will also become a more important factor, as currently certain products are obtained from the southern hemisphere during our winter season.

When I say that North America can produce enough food, I am only focusing on caloric quantity and not dietary diversity. The cheapest and most efficient production will be in the form of grains (wheat and corn mostly, with rye, barley and millet for some diversity and some rice production further south). Vegetables of one type or another can grow in the full climatic range of North America, although colder parts may be limited to root vegetables. Fruits will be far more problematic as many of them prefer warmer climates that only prevail in some regions. So while it will be possible to provide 2000 calories per person in North America after peak oil, the diversity and quality of that diet may be far different from what it is today.

Distribution from countryside to cities will also be a problem and will depend on how transportation develops. Before the use of oil, railroads were the main source of food transport from the agricultural heartland to the more densely populated northeast cities of the US. Agriculture may become less mechanized and therefore more labor intensive so people may resettle from the cities to the countryside to some extent, helping relive the pressure. But overall I imagine food production and distribution will be prioritized over most other economic expenditures and the food production and distribution networks will continue to function in a more limited capacity.

[Ludi]

TigPil, it's not clear to me how the agricultural system will be supported financially during this unending collapse.

You say that food production and distribution will be prioritized and I'm sure that's true, but once people spend 100% of their income on food, there's no more they can spend.

[JPL]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')igPil, it's not clear to me how the agricultural system will be supported financially during this unending collapse.

You say that food production and distribution will be prioritized and I'm sure that's true, but once people spend 100% of their income on food, there's no more they can spend.

[Ludi]

Yes, I agree it is a serious social issue. Very few people in industrialized countries grow food.

It is also a fact you cannot learn to grow food while you are starving to death.

[Revi]

We can relearn how to grow food, but it will take at least a generation. Some of us are doing it already. A garden is an amazing thing to start with. Not much investment, some work to plant and weed, but what a payoff! Fresh tomatoes are a wonderful thing. Asparagus fresh from the garden is so tasty. It will take a change in most people's mentality, however. I think most will just die. I'm putting a fence around my garden, and it's not just to keep the groundhogs out!

[WildRose]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TigPil', 'W')hen I say that North America can produce enough food, I am only focusing on caloric quantity and not dietary diversity. The cheapest and most efficient production will be in the form of grains (wheat and corn mostly, with rye, barley and millet for some diversity and some rice production further south). Vegetables of one type or another can grow in the full climatic range of North America, although colder parts may be limited to root vegetables. Fruits will be far more problematic as many of them prefer warmer climates that only prevail in some regions. So while it will be possible to provide 2000 calories per person in North America after peak oil, the diversity and quality of that diet may be far different from what it is today.

[TigPil]

It will really be a matter of how quickly oil supplies drop off and what alternatives are available and how quickly they are ramped up. Lets say oil supplies to North America drop at a rate of 5% per year and alternate energy production (nuclear, coal, renewables) only replaces 1% because we have failed to make timely investments in infrastructure (as is the case right now). This means that we have a net 4% drop in oil derived energy per year.

What will be the impact of a 4% annual drop in oil supplies year by year? Well the first few years probably will have relatively minimal impact. Gasoline prices will rise and consumers will cut back their transportation. Personal vehicles consume just over 40% of the oil used in North America and transportation as a whole consumes almost 2/3 of the total. The 6% used by air carriers will also decline although I think the 16% used by trucking will be initially unchanged. Throughout these first few years rising fuel prices will trickle through into inflationary pressure on a variety of goods that have fuel as an input, most importantly food.

We all seem to be in agreement that food production will be prioritized once governments realize that there is an energy crisis. Currently the two industrial usage inputs that may flow into agriculture make up about 2 million barrels per day of US consumption but a significant amount of this must not be for other types of industry. So I will make an aggressive estimate that 1 million barrels are used for agriculture, for powering farm equipment and as feedstock primarily for pesticides. Trucking currently uses 16% of US oil consumption but again this covers a wide range of goods so lets say that 4% of total oil consumption is related to food distribution. This means that about 2 million barrels of oil are essential to food production. So at a 4% annual drop rate in oil supplies, it will take 23 years from the onset of peak oil until the prioritized area of food production is affected. This is without changing current production patterns or lowering consumption at all but I think production patterns will change as people try to balance food requirements with other basic needs.

In those 23 years, a lot of adjustments can take place. If mechanized agriculture has to be phased out then a lot of people will have to move back to the countryside and employment in agriculture will rise from the current 2-3% to much higher levels (depending on how unmechanized agriculture beceomes). In 1900 40% of the US labor force was involved in agriculture and 40% of the population lived in a rural context. I suppose that would be the worst case scenario since there was basically no agricultural mechanization at that time.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')igPil, it's not clear to me how the agricultural system will be supported financially during this unending collapse.
You say that food production and distribution will be prioritized and I'm sure that's true, but once people spend 100% of their income on food, there's no more they can spend.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TigPil', 'W')hat will be the impact of a 4% annual drop in oil supplies year by year? Well the first few years probably will have relatively minimal impact.

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '
')I don't think it can be assumed that the impact will be minimal in the first few years. It is quite possible that the first few years will see the highest impact.

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', '
')I don't think it can be assumed that the impact will be minimal in the first few years. It is quite possible that the first few years will see the highest impact.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I')f it's enforced through higher prices, why won't those higher prices hit farmers, both increasing prices and production or profitability?

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TonyPrep', 'I')f it's enforced through higher prices, why won't those higher prices hit farmers, both increasing prices and production or profitability?

[Ludi]

TigPil, how will the government fund its intervention in the food production and distribution system?