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Most dangerous weapon on Earth?

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Most dangerous weapon on Earth?

Poll ended at Fri 12 Jan 2007, 10:32:24

Atomic bomb
0
0%
H bomb
3
No votes
Biological bomb
4
No votes
Fundamentalism
14
No votes
Information
6
No votes
Stupidity
18
No votes
 
Total votes : 45

Re: Most dangerous weapon on Earth?

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Fri 15 Dec 2006, 17:43:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'A')nyway, when you are talking about ferromagnetic materials, why in the hell are you offering expensive cobalt and not much cheaper iron?


Because I already mentioned iron and you went with aluminium. I figured you had something against iron, so I named the only other ferrous material I could think of off-hand. Yes, it's a terrible choice, but it's the only one I could think of.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'N')uclear explosions will not deliver sufficient EMP to destroy power lines or transformers, unless the bomb exploded so nearly, that they would be done "for other reasons" anyway.


That depends on the height and yield of the detonation. Starfish Prime (1.4Mt) back in 1962 was detonated at a height of ~400 km over Johnson Island, and caused blackouts as far away as Hawaii, 1500km away. It blew out street lights, fused wires and disabled 3 low-orbit satellites. Starfish Prime wasn't even designed to be an EMP weapon.

Granted, not many people or organizations have the capability of delivering a 1.4Mt payload to 400km, but the threat does exist.
The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
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Re: Most dangerous weapon on Earth?

Unread postby Stratovarius » Fri 15 Dec 2006, 17:44:40

Everyone! Into the Faraday cage!
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Re: Most dangerous weapon on Earth?

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Fri 15 Dec 2006, 18:27:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'N')uclear explosions will not deliver sufficient EMP to destroy power lines or transformers, unless the bomb exploded so nearly, that they would be done "for other reasons" anyway.


That depends on the height and yield of the detonation. Starfish Prime (1.4Mt) back in 1962 was detonated at a height of ~400 km over Johnson Island, and caused blackouts as far away as Hawaii, 1500km away. It blew out street lights, fused wires and disabled 3 low-orbit satellites. Starfish Prime wasn't even designed to be an EMP weapon.

Granted, not many people or organizations have the capability of delivering a 1.4Mt payload to 400km, but the threat does exist.


I have to agree with you on this account but this really requires firing large nukes in the space. Poor ISS...
You have below an interesting link about EMP and protection against it.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/libra ... 7010_1.htm
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Re: Most dangerous weapon on Earth?

Unread postby Gridlock » Fri 15 Dec 2006, 18:51:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') vote for the automobile. It kills people directly in accidents


MOTOR VEHICLE MILEAGE DEATH RATES BY COUNTRY, 1996

(1) Sweden 1.2
(2) United Kingdom 1.4
(3) Finland 1.5
(4) United States 1.7
(5) Netherlands 1.8
(6) Denmark 2.0
....
(15) South Korea 35.8

Swedes come out on top again :-)
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Re: Most dangerous weapon on Earth?

Unread postby Dreamtwister » Fri 15 Dec 2006, 20:34:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'I') have to agree with you on this account but this really requires firing large nukes in the space. Poor ISS...
You have below an interesting link about EMP and protection against it.
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/libra ... 7010_1.htm


That is a great link. I've only skimmed it so far, but these in particular attracted my attention:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')esterday we invited the intelligence community to provide us with their most up-to-date material on EMP threats. We received documents that were 10 years old, interestingly enough, written at that time by a member of our staff, who now is an expert with us, Peter Pry, who at that time was with the agency and the expert on EMP.

We understand that no NIE has been issued on EMP since the 1980's, and this is 1997. We also understand that some of our EMP testing sets have been dismantled or are in disrepair.


This tells me that while I'm sure research has continued, and the bulk of military hardware is doubtless properly shielded by now, virtually nothing has happened in the last decade to harden the civilian infrastructure against EMP attack.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Soviets took the V–2 engineering crew to the Soviet Union, and they started cranking out in the early 1950's several generations of rockets which are now known to the world as Scuds. Those rockets have been sold very extensively throughout the Third World to the point that even, if you will, a rinky-dink power like North Korea is capable of indigenously producing rockets which are imminently satisfactory for launching not only conventional payloads but nuclear trajectories that go into space.

The Scud rockets used by the Iraqis very effectively, as terror weapons in Operation Desert Storm, flew to altitudes of 150 kilometers, which is imminently satisfactory for the type of regional EMP laydowns I have been referring to.

The Iraqis succeeded in launching not only 80 rockets—79 rockets that landed on or near targets, but they succeeded in launching them at extremely high rates with a very high rate of success. Over 90 percent of all the launches they attempted were successful.

They succeeded, in one particularly striking set of launches, in launching seven of them nearly simultaneously within a time window of 10 minutes. Each of these rockets flew into space. They achieved apogee altitudes of about 150 kilometers. One of these rockets could have carried a nuclear explosive of a kiloton class yield into space and, in particular, detonated it over our forces.


So how many countries out there can build scuds? There's got to be at least a couple dozen by now, and some of them *cough North Korea* are nuclear already.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e didn't have any confirmed kills of Scud-launching capability during Operation Desert Storm, in spite of having flown 8,000 sorties that were specific against Scud launchers.


An object lesson for anyone who's still considering airstrikes into Iran.

I also noticed that they weren't talking about "big" warheads either. They were discussing weapons in the 100kt range - far more manageable.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')oing a lot of work in Russia—I was in Moscow 6 weeks ago with five other Members of Congress in a meeting with General Lebed. General Lebed was asked about the status of nuclear forces in Russia. He told us—using his exact quote, ''Mr. Congressman, when I chaired the Defense Council for Boris Yeltsin, one of my responsibilities was to account for all of the suitcase-sized nuclear devices that we built inside of Russia.''

He went on to say that during the tenure of building these devices, they had, in fact, manufactured 132; and he told us they had only been able to account for 48.

That means there are 84 very nasty suitcases floating around out there, and nobody knows where.
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Re: Most dangerous weapon on Earth?

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Fri 15 Dec 2006, 20:40:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', '
')Even if that were true, all of civilization would still end overnight and there's not much TPTB could do about it.


I don't think civilization would end overnight just because some of the electronics broke down. What proportion of the electronics would an EMP weapon break?


The electrical grid goes down, hundreds of thousands of transformers need to be rebuilt and replaced across the entire country, requiring years of work that becomes impossible without <<< electricity >>> .

Haven't had time to continue with http://www.giltweasel.com/stuff/LightsOut-Current.pdf

EMP DOOM
This is fascinating. Thanks for posting it. Jack, I'm sure you would also get into this doomer novel. I thought after the first couple of paragraphs that the author was amateur, but it's really well thought out. I'm a couple hundred pages into it now and have to press-on, a "page-turner" as they say in the dust-jacket blurb biz.
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Re: Most dangerous weapon on Earth?

Unread postby jupiters_release » Fri 15 Dec 2006, 21:26:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', '
')Even if that were true, all of civilization would still end overnight and there's not much TPTB could do about it.


I don't think civilization would end overnight just because some of the electronics broke down. What proportion of the electronics would an EMP weapon break?


The electrical grid goes down, hundreds of thousands of transformers need to be rebuilt and replaced across the entire country, requiring years of work that becomes impossible without <<< electricity >>> .

Haven't had time to continue with http://www.giltweasel.com/stuff/LightsOut-Current.pdf

EMP DOOM
This is fascinating. Thanks for posting it. Jack, I'm sure you would also get into this doomer novel. I thought after the first couple of paragraphs that the author was amateur, but it's really well thought out. I'm a couple hundred pages into it now and have to press-on, a "page-turner" as they say in the dust-jacket blurb biz.


No problem, its been linked here several times before by other members, easy to miss the good stuff with barrage of daily links.
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Re: Most dangerous weapon on Earth?

Unread postby eric_b » Fri 15 Dec 2006, 21:29:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', '
')
I don't question the quality of military gear, but this EMP thing sounds pervasive short of cost prohibitive vacuum environments, course I don't know anything about electrical engineering just the impression I got reading about photons and such crossing the entire continent within a millisecond.


Ah, electromagnetic radiation has no trouble propagating through a vacuum. Most rad hardened stuff is encased in heavy metal shielding (faraday cage). This is the most reliable, but there are other ways to go about it.

No vacuum required :)
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Re: Most dangerous weapon on Earth?

Unread postby jupiters_release » Fri 15 Dec 2006, 21:30:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'A')ny electron tube based old fashion equipment (including a radio belonging to my grandpa) would survive.


True. But how many of them are still out there and working? I don't think I've seen one in ~20 years.


My integrated HH Scott 299A stereo tube amp is now 47 years old and outclasses almost anything you can buy today, but it can't run without electricity though. :(
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Re: Most dangerous weapon on Earth?

Unread postby jupiters_release » Fri 15 Dec 2006, 21:32:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eric_b', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jupiters_release', '
')
I don't question the quality of military gear, but this EMP thing sounds pervasive short of cost prohibitive vacuum environments, course I don't know anything about electrical engineering just the impression I got reading about photons and such crossing the entire continent within a millisecond.


Ah, electromagnetic radiation has no trouble propagating through a vacuum. Most rad hardened stuff is encased in heavy metal shielding (faraday cage). This is the most reliable, but there are other ways to go about it.

No vacuum required :)


Yeah I have no clue on this at all, good to learn about it here because its one topic I've rarely seen discussed.
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Re: Most dangerous weapon on Earth?

Unread postby eric_b » Fri 15 Dec 2006, 21:36:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', 'N')uclear explosions will not deliver sufficient EMP to destroy power lines or transformers, unless the bomb exploded so nearly, that they would be done "for other reasons" anyway.


That depends on the height and yield of the detonation. Starfish Prime (1.4Mt) back in 1962 was detonated at a height of ~400 km over Johnson Island, and caused blackouts as far away as Hawaii, 1500km away. It blew out street lights, fused wires and disabled 3 low-orbit satellites. Starfish Prime wasn't even designed to be an EMP weapon.



Exactly. The amount and severity of the EMP depends on many factors, most important being the size of the bomb ( & type) and the altitude it's detonated at.

If the desire is to completely paralyze a country without rendering it totally radioactive a large (many megatonne, not a wimpy kilotonne yield weapon) weapon detonated at very hight altitude would produce a large and devasting amount of EMP, which would defeat a lot of shielded electronics.

Undertand too the military has apparently developed EMP weapons which could be used to knockout electronics over a smaller area. Too useful a phenomenon not to be weaponized.
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Re: Most dangerous weapon on Earth?

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Sat 16 Dec 2006, 03:46:32

The Lights Out story is a great read. It is completely devoid of any literary style, as much fiction is these days. The words have only one function: to tell the story. It does make for quick reading, though. Plenty of action and the characters are believable even if somewhat superficial. It is just enough to support the main concern of the author, I would say, which is to present the situation and map out the course of the disaster and show how a sudden collapse of civilization would play out. From what I've heard of EMP attacks, a sudden collapse seems very possible. This is just what some people were worrying over in the Y2K days. Not the sort of thing one would expect from peak oil, but heck, you never know. Suppose the hoarding effect just kicked in and oil became impossible to buy at any price. In a matter of months the whole international market collapses, etc. People point out some times that the Roman Empire took centuries to collapse and suggest that our civilization should take a long time to collapse. That's probably true but nothing is certain. Nothing of this complexity has existed before. For all we know, this economic system has to have the oil flowing or else it siezes up and fries. The shortages in the 70s were not too large but the effect was very bad. Imagine if the whole oil market suddenly froze because exporting countries got hit by panic and a hoarding mentality set in. The economies of the developed nations are far too complex for anyone to direct or control. That means then that no one really knows how vulnerable they might prove to be.
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