by MrBill » Tue 12 Dec 2006, 04:43:04
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '.')..I prefer to live closer to my work and to walk, but still it is lot less stressful than commuting by auto, and then the infrastructure is there post peak oil.
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The infrastructure (electric trains) may be there after PO but will there be $$$ to operate it? Public tranist exists in Europe because of hundreds of billions of dollars of subsidies. When PO hits and governments can no longer afford to collect taxes from fossil fuels where will the money come from to "subsidize" these projects? Much to the approval of environmentalists, fossil fuel taxes are quite often earmarked for public transit. I fail to see how that makes public transit "independant" of fossil fuels. However I have long since given up on trying to understand environmentalists.
Electric trains and ICE cars are equally dependant on fossils fuels. 
I think you have to carefully distinguish between post peak oil scenarios in which fossil fuels are simply very expensive or they are simply unavailable. Of course, the end game has to be total lack of supply of petroleum, but I happen to believe that there are many levels of resource depletion before that particular Hell.
Stripped back to their absolute basics prices reflect the cost of labor. Nothing more, nothing less. We have learned to substitute energy for labor because we found it more cost efficient. But so long as we produce an agricultural surplus as the cost of labor falls we can substitute more labor for energy.
This reverses the increases in standards of living that we have witnessed over the past 150-years. If we cannot produce an agricultural surplus, then that is another story. That has everything to do with over-population relative to our ability to grow food, and although it is influenced by post peak oil resource depletion, they are separate.
Rail track can be maintained by manual labor. That is the way it used to be done. That is the way it can be done again. It is harder and less efficient than the way railways are maintained now, but given its importance post peak oil it will not go undone due to lack of funding. Funding afterall is an artificial concept based on our existing money supply, and has nothing to do with the labor and agricultural surplus needed to maintain physical projects.
Europeans pay on average 52% in income tax and mandatory payments, plus up to 20% VAT on everything they purchase. That is the cost in euros to maintain their system as it is. However, if you substitute labor and agricultural surplus as cash equivalents then theoretically you have a lot of surplus manual labor to carry out necessary public works projects.
So therefore it is incorrect to state that railways will stop running as soon as we can no longer afford them. The reverse is true. In the face of scarce energy we will need rail more than ever. Of course, it takes less energy to maintain the track and rolling stock that is already in place rather than build it from scratch, especially if energy is very expensive and/or unavailable. This is where much of Europe has an economical advantage over parts of the USA and many other countries.
Rail can run on stationary power. Sources of stationary power will outlive our current sources of petroleum by a wide margin. Even if the overall system has to be run sub-optimally with less overall energy than we presently consume. Or hope to consume.
But even using ever scarcer petroleum - diesel - for trains is still more efficient than using those same non-renewable resources for commuting by autos or long haul transport using truck. Just as in the past, the future will rely more on long distance movement of goods and people via rail and water because they are more efficient. And as petroleum becomes more expensive and/or more scarce it will necessitate trade-offs between comfort and convenience on one hand and energy efficiency and cost on the other side.
The point being that those areas serviced by rail and water will become important commercial hubs, not those places only accessible by road. Other regional centres may spring up close to places producing an agricultural surplus and excess labor will gravitate to those places that offer employment in rail and water transport and related activities such as loading, unloading, distribution and warehousing. Or that surplus labor will migrate to where surplus food is grown as farm labor.
Again, no one has said anything about rising standards of living or maintaining all of our existing infrastructure with less energy. That which is uneconomical will be salvaged for other purposes or abandoned. For example, used lumber and household accessories from McMansions will not likely be burned for firewood, but they may be salvaged for use in construction elsewhere. Large houses can be sub-divided into multi-family homes. But not if they are in the middle of no where.
However, in the intervening period. Between now, peak oil, and the trough of total resource depletion is likely a long and bumpy ride. The merits of good, integrated public transport will be apparent when the resources needed to maintain roads are no longer available, but workers still need to travel, and essential goods will need to be delivered. I believe it was you (Cube) that said, that cars will be abandoned when governments can no longer subsidize roads before people can no longer afford cars, right?
Please do not get me wrong. Eventually, the rails and the rolling stock will wear out and need to be replaced. I understand the challenges of mining with less energy and other associated problems. Also, the transition will be difficult due to over-population and people living in the wrong places that will need to be displaced. As well infrastructure like rails can be ripped up and stolen to be sold as scrap by gangs. That is also true. And we still have to address other resource depletion issues, not just post peak oil depletion in isolation. However, what is the alternative?
In the meantime, I think you will find many workers willing to take a one hour train ride when they can no longer afford to drive, or to own a car, or the roads are no longer maintained, as opposed to walking. And the delivery of freight will mainly favor rail and water over draught or animal power. Although that is not to say that regional distribution will never again be done by horse and cart. That is also highly likely looking at the developing world that operates a mix of competing transportation systems in conjunction with one another.
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.