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Where did all the doomers go?

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.
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Re: Where did all the doomers go?

Unread postby Concerned » Wed 06 Dec 2006, 04:25:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('stungmaster', 'S')o does that mean if I buy 100 barrels of crude right now around $62ish USD, that I'll triple my investment by 2015?

Can an average person even BUY crude oil like that? Methinks no.


two problems with this scenario. inflation and demand destruction.
Both work against you making any money.
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Re: Where did all the doomers go?

Unread postby garyp » Wed 06 Dec 2006, 04:45:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '
')I think maybe you are losing touch with "common people". Every person I have asked "What would you do if all the food dried up?" the answer they gave was "I'd go to the country" ie the source. These are non peak oil aware people.

Couldn't agree more. The countryside will be awash with gangs of suburban crusties and camped out survivalists - each armed to the teeth. Still, all that blood is good for the soil I guess.

If you want to get "away from it" may I suggest a boat. Mobility and separation in one.
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Re: Where did all the doomers go?

Unread postby Concerned » Wed 06 Dec 2006, 05:02:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'G')otta go with Agentr (roof?) on this one.

People in the cities and suburbs will not look to the country for help. It would not occur to people raised on lattes and shopping malls to consider a soybean or wheat field as food. It does not look like food. The woods do not look like packaged steaks. Ponds do not look like fish sticks.

If anything the bored angry masses will go to the money. They will head for 5th Avenue. Rodeo Drive. The Mall.


I think maybe you are losing touch with "common people". Every person I have asked "What would you do if all the food dried up?" the answer they gave was "I'd go to the country" ie the source. These are non peak oil aware people.

I find your conclusions hilarious though, so if you have any more....


Did you ask them how they plan on getting there and what they intend to do when they get out there?

Do they plan on raiding a beef feed lot for steak? Or head to a large corn or wheat farms for grain? Whats their plan for next season after the current herd has been slaughtered?

What do they intend doing when they reach such a place and there is competition from other starving hordes?

A small farm with barely enough to feed ten or twelve over winter, how will they handle that? Do they honestly think that if one hundred thousand come one by one that food will last and be doled out for all? Do they think if that hundred thousand come as one that food will be given to all? How do they think they will get food? What about next season and next year :twisted:

I think the people like me sitting back and enjoying have to be ready to take scraps, fight to the bitter end and be prepared to be the ones participating in the die off if things get in really bad shape.
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Re: Where did all the doomers go?

Unread postby PolestaR » Wed 06 Dec 2006, 05:27:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Concerned', 'D')id you ask them how they plan on getting there and what they intend to do when they get out there?

Do they plan on raiding a beef feed lot for steak? Or head to a large corn or wheat farms for grain? Whats their plan for next season after the current herd has been slaughtered?

What do they intend doing when they reach such a place and there is competition from other starving hordes?

A small farm with barely enough to feed ten or twelve over winter, how will they handle that? Do they honestly think that if one hundred thousand come one by one that food will last and be doled out for all? Do they think if that hundred thousand come as one that food will be given to all? How do they think they will get food? What about next season and next year :twisted:

I think the people like me sitting back and enjoying have to be ready to take scraps, fight to the bitter end and be prepared to be the ones participating in the die off if things get in really bad shape.


I seriously doubt these "normal people" have any concrete plans, a bug out plan like most of us, they just have a "goal" - if shit happens get out of the city. There is a difference between having a goal and achieving it obviously, however saying people can't walk or ride a bike 50-100 miles is so ludicrous I'm not sure why these otherwise intelligent people would say it. I'm not talking about disasters where people think the govt etc will save them ala New Orleans. I'm talking about a real collapse where no one can save them.

Even if only 10% (very very conservative) of the population can travel 50 miles if the base you're looking at is 2 million that means 200K people. I don't care how much ammo you have... you don't have that much.

Even if you had to "deal" with 5 people a day it would stress you out having to be on constant aim unless your retreat had many members. I know you should be on constant lookout but dealing with 5 people each day compared to none is a lot.
Last edited by PolestaR on Wed 06 Dec 2006, 05:34:26, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Where did all the doomers go?

Unread postby waegari » Wed 06 Dec 2006, 05:27:48

Though as a news editor I try to remain as neutral as humanly possible, for those of you who didn't (want to) notice, I would like to point out that we at the news boards posted three stories within roughly the last 24 hours, which by and large predict a peaking of oil reserves in three different regions:

1.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il production in Southeast Asia will reach a peak in 2013 as fewer new fields are found, forcing the region to evaluate its dependence on crude, said Michael Smith chief executive of UK-based consultant Energyfiles Ltd.


Southeast Asian oil output likely to peak by 2013

2.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ngola will attain in 2011 its highest oil production level (two million and 600,000 barrels/year), with discoveries of new fields in deep and ultra-deep waters, according to a prediction of a World Bank report on the country's economy.

In 2020, according to a bar graph, a low production very similar to that of the year 2000 is expected.


Angola's Oil Production to Reach Highest Level in 2011

3.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')orway needs to open up new offshore oil exploration areas and step up the search in existing zones if it is to remain a key oil exporter, a national oil industry association report said Monday.

“We have no time to lose,” it said. “Exploration activity must be intensified and its results must be improved.”

The Nordic nation's offshore fields make it the world's third largest oil exporter, after Saudi Arabia and Russia, as well as a major natural gas supplier.

However, the association — known by its Norwegian acronym OLF — said that after more than three decades as an oil producer, the country needs new big finds to keep up the flow. New oil fields need to be located fast because there is often at least a 10-year lag between finding one and developing it, the report said.


Oil firms say Norway needs more offshore exploration

I leave it up to you to decide whether this is a sign of future cornucopian bliss or rather something else (also considering the all too well known facts about Cantarell...).
The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand the exponential function.

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Re: Where did all the doomers go?

Unread postby Bas » Wed 06 Dec 2006, 08:04:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'B')as, we are in ecologic overshoot. (yes aaron I am now convinced and I am ready to join the cast. skreeee!).

--US Cropland: 442 million acres (20 percent of the land area);
--US population: 300 million
--1.5 acres/person

The US is no longer a net exporter of food. Our agricultural lands, aquifers, and surface waters are depleting at a distressing rate. A great deal of our agriculture depends on pumped water, petroleum chemical inputs, & diesel farm equipment and a beneficent climate.

If any of that fossil fuel leaves us, many of those 442 million acres are useless. All naturally irrigated (Eastern USA) farmlands are either in use or covered by suburbs. The rest depends on petroleum.

If there is the slightest chance we will soon see yearly, permanent, 5%, 7%, or 10% declines (these decline rates are very very real--see North Sea, Cantarell) then adapting a 'doomer' perspective is not an unreasonable response.

Year one: discretionary incomes evaporates
Year two: municipal town and county budgets gutted
Year three: federal budget in free-fall
year four: economy in ruins
year five: food?
year six: skreee!

Bas, you want to tell me everything is just comin up roses?


No, I'm not saying that. I agree on what you say, I'm very concerned about the environment and sustainability, angry with politicians that don't seem to think ahead and I've been convinced of PO with it's inevitable declines for a long time.

Apart from that I know it's impossible to predict the future accurately and the marketeconomy/people have a talent for improvising when it's needed.
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Re: Where did all the doomers go?

Unread postby Zardoz » Wed 06 Dec 2006, 11:50:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('stungmaster', 'I')'ve never understood the whole survivalist thing, but I guess I don't understand a lot of things.

What makes one think, in the face of the worse of the worse, when the TSHTF that they'll be safe in their log cabin away from the "suburban zombie hordes?" I don't think anyone would have enough rounds to take 'em all out, if they think guns and ammo can save them...

Of course. That's what many of us have been saying all along. Those who think they'll be "safe" if they're located X number of miles from urban centers are childishly naive.

If the Mad Max scenario actually does come to pass, there will be no safe place to hide, anywhere.
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Re: Where did all the doomers go?

Unread postby NeoPeasant » Wed 06 Dec 2006, 12:50:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'I')f the Mad Max scenario actually does come to pass, there will be no safe place to hide, anywhere.


I'm betting on a decline to a third world way of life amongst the mostly useless remains of the built environment of an affluent society. If you wonder how we will survive with scarce resources and dysfunctional government, just look at how it's been done for years elsewhere in the world. If the government loses it's ability to provide security and order, there will be warlords to take their place.

In a Mad Max Scenario, you could join the minions of lord Humungous or work in the pig shit mines.
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Re: Where did all the doomers go?

Unread postby JustinFrankl » Wed 06 Dec 2006, 13:43:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('stungmaster', 'I')'ve never understood the whole survivalist thing, but I guess I don't understand a lot of things.

What makes one think, in the face of the worse of the worse, when the TSHTF that they'll be safe in their log cabin away from the "suburban zombie hordes?" I don't think anyone would have enough rounds to take 'em all out, if they think guns and ammo can save them...

Of course. That's what many of us have been saying all along. Those who think they'll be "safe" if they're located X number of miles from urban centers are childishly naive.

If the Mad Max scenario actually does come to pass, there will be no safe place to hide, anywhere.

Safety is a matter of degrees, it's not binary, and it has many components.

Your degree of safety can be increased through:
- decreasing proximty to population centers
- weapons and defense training
- adding more people to your supporting group
- broadening the total group skillset
- seeing through corporate/media/government doublespeak

Oddly enough, these things also will increase your liberty.

But nothing anywhere ever makes you 100% safe or 100% free.
"We have seen the enemy, and he is us." -- Walt Kelly
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Re: Where did all the doomers go?

Unread postby AgentR » Wed 06 Dec 2006, 14:45:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'N')o. There will be no horde. Rural folks will have other problems to deal with of course; but a rampaging horde of fleeing suburbanites isn't one of them.


I call BS rwwff. If refugees have shown us anything, no matter where they come from, they try and get to a better place. You act like walking is some skill you need to invest MORE time on other than your lifetime spent walking to be good at it.


Walking is not a skill. It is however, an energy consuming, injury inflicting activity when conducted on the scale of 100+ miles.

I doubt most will even try.

Of those that do try, most will be seriously weakened by the experience, and will die at the destination if they try anything even remotely aggressive.

I am concerned about many things with regard to peak oil and a collapse. Refugees aren't one of those things.
Yes, we are. As we are.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
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Re: Where did all the doomers go?

Unread postby MD » Wed 06 Dec 2006, 14:49:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '.')...

I am concerned about many things with regard to peak oil and a collapse. Refugees aren't one of those things.


other than not becoming one, perhaps?
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: Where did all the doomers go?

Unread postby AgentR » Wed 06 Dec 2006, 14:50:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'I') am concerned about many things with regard to peak oil and a collapse. Refugees aren't one of those things.
other than not becoming one, perhaps?


Already taken care of. So no, not concerned.
Yes, we are. As we are.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
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Re: Where did all the doomers go?

Unread postby holmes » Wed 06 Dec 2006, 15:13:12

Just my observations most environmentalists have not a clue of what the environment is all about. Just sierra club backpacking trips. Pretty pictures. Thats why I ceased to be associated with them. We really need realists and ecologists.
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Re: Where did all the doomers go?

Unread postby holmes » Wed 06 Dec 2006, 15:39:39

Did I mispell something? Thats another issue I have with many of them: Elitism.
Many have not clue on how much land and how much goes into stocking their urban organic produce market.
Many were just bred from the urban pavement so how can I blame them?
And pstarr your not one of the ones Im speaking of. You have an edge that I admire.
"To crush the Cornucopians, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women."
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Re: Where did all the doomers go?

Unread postby Bas » Wed 06 Dec 2006, 15:49:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('holmes', 'D')id I mispell something? Thats another issue I have with many of them: Elitism.
Many have not clue on how much land and how much goes into stocking their urban organic produce market.
Many were just bred from the urban pavement so how can I blame them?
And pstarr your not one of the ones Im speaking of. You have an edge that I admire.


I'm an environmentalist but at the same time I find it more important that nobody dies of hunger. Nice if you can do without pesticides, but if not, that's ok too, just be careful how much you use and what kind. I have high hopes for GE crops that can do without pesticides and at the same time can grow in area's that right now are not suitable for growing crops.

I prefer nuclear over coal for environmental reasons, the world cannot work on solar and wind alone, I'm realistic enough to see that. That's what my "problem" is with this vocal yet impractable branch of environmentalists; they criticize everything but don't come up with solutions. On the other hand, without them making so much noise about the environment, we may not have been having this discussion.
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Re: Where did all the doomers go?

Unread postby holmes » Wed 06 Dec 2006, 15:53:56

But Bas do you see the illogic species thinking? The human scale must be reduced or you have NO environment! Its dissapearing 2.2 million acres a year in the US alone! You are trying to find away around the overshoot problem. Your solutions will be somewhat ok when we drop population. even then it will just create another set of problems. Environmentalists must promote powerdown and an ecological paradigm! No other way for you to be an environmentalist with a BAU mindset. Thats my issue with them!
"To crush the Cornucopians, see them driven before you, and to hear the lamentation of their women."
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Re: Where did all the doomers go?

Unread postby Bas » Wed 06 Dec 2006, 16:05:48

I agree we have a set of huge environmental problems that are related to overpopulation of this planet. And I think things will get much worse before they get any better, and it's highly unlikely that things will get better within our lifetimes. That this doesn't seem to alarm the political elite is a mystery to me.
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Re: Where did all the doomers go?

Unread postby holmes » Wed 06 Dec 2006, 16:08:16

Now we agree! Good deal.
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