[Zardoz]

Admiral Hymen Rickover was a remarkable guy. I had no idea, however, that he was such a visionary:

Admiral Rickover: The future of fossil fuels

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his is what might be called the fossil fuel age. Coal, oil, and natural gas supply 93 per cent of the world’s energy. Water power accounts for only 1 per cent. Labor of men and domestic animals accounts for 6 per cent. This is in startling contrast to a century ago when fossil fuels supplied only 5 per cent of the world’s energy, and men and animals 94 per cent. Five-sixths of all the coal, oil, and gas ever consumed by man has been burned up in the last 55 years.

The rate at which fossil fuels are being consumed is breath-taking. All coal, oil, natural gas used before 1900 would not last five years at today’s rate of consumption.

The United States with only 5 per cent of the world’s population uses one-third of the world’s total energy output. This accounts for America’s high standard of living...

...Now what of the future of fossil fuels? It is an unpleasant fact that according to our best estimates total fossil fuel reserves (recoverable at not over twice today’s unit cost) are likely to run out at some time between 2000 and 2050 A.D. Oil and natural gas will disappear first; coal last.

[Tanada]

In many ways Rickover was a brilliant, driven individual who accomplished great things. He was also a pollitical infighter par excellence' who wanted the navy run his way and only his way and got what he wanted for some 20 years (mid 60's to mid 80's) by making deals with key contractors and using them to lobby key congressional members.

The problems got out of hand and he was 'deposed' because during his time of greatest influence the Navy got horribly behind in actually receiving subs and ships. The key contractor he made so many deals with was overloaded with work while at the same time the competitors got zero contracts and were going bankrupt one after another as a result. When your bread and butter is a building contract and you were on the Admirals' S--t list you were up said creek with no paddle as a result.

For a fascinating look at the fall of Rickover read Command Of The Sea's by John Lehman. I couldn't beleive that such a brilliant man could become so petty and short sighted but the data on how the Navy was being run back up the claims.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'T')hat was from 1957, for God's sake! The data was there folks. Some knew what was going on, and what was coming, fifty long years ago. We chose to ignore them.

Most of us are still ignoring them.

[Zardoz]

Daily Kos article on Rickover's amazing speech:

Pentagon and peak oil - then (1957) and now

[PolestaR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'D')aily Kos article on Rickover's amazing speech:

Pentagon and peak oil - then (1957) and now

[emersonbiggins]

1957 was three or four ring suburbs ago. Oh, the changes we could've made...

[Ayame]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '
')There is no way 5/6ths of the shit was used by 1957 so isn't this just proof that us doomers have been around a long time? Or did he just mean what has been consumed has been consumed recently?

[PolestaR]

I still don't get why Zardoz labeled him a visionary. I mean you ask a 10 year old "If you have finite resources will it one day run out?" they will say sure. Was it sarcasm?

[Lighthouse]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'A')dmiral Hymen Rickover was a remarkable guy. I had no idea, however, that he was such a visionary:

Admiral Rickover: The future of fossil fuels

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')... Five-sixths of all the coal, oil, and gas ever consumed by man has been burned up in the last 55 years....

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'A')dmiral Hymen Rickover was a remarkable guy. I had no idea, however, that he was such a visionary:

Admiral Rickover: The future of fossil fuels

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '.')... Five-sixths of all the coal, oil, and gas ever consumed by man has been burned up in the last 55 years....

[Lighthouse]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'I') think you missed the point? Why would it be unreasonable to state that in 1957, if you looked back 55 years, you would conclude that most of the fossil fuels ever consumed had occured during that period of time?

He didn't say "we have used up 5/6 of the available fossil fuels in the last 55 years". If he had, I would have joined your laughter.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'I') think you missed the point? Why would it be unreasonable to state that in 1957, if you looked back 55 years, you would conclude that most of the fossil fuels ever consumed had occured during that period of time?

He didn't say "we have used up 5/6 of the available fossil fuels in the last 55 years". If he had, I would have joined your laughter.

[gego]

Was not Jimmy Carter involved with Rickover sometime in his career in the Navy before he was a politician? Maybe this is partly why Carter was the only president to understand and speak of the energy crisis.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'R')ight. I still find the claim credible. Where was the mass consumption prior to 1800? I know China has been burning the crap for a long time, but at what scale?

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'W')as not Jimmy Carter involved with Rickover sometime in his career in the Navy before he was a politician? Maybe this is partly why Carter was the only president to understand and speak of the energy crisis.

[Zardoz]

Any questions?

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/aer/eh/frame.html

(EDIT:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lighthouse', 'Y')ou are so funny. 5/6 by 1957 -- 5/6 of coal? Please stop it, my tummy hurts

And the best thing some even falling for this remarkable visionary heap of BS

[seahorse2]

Zardoz, the mistake you are making with Lighthouse is believing that facts should ever get in the way of one's opinion.

Here's another point to take from this 1957 prediction - the perspective of how little time we have to address a peak oil and gas problem. Let's assume CERA is right, and that world oil won't peak until 2030; that's a mere 23 years from now. This prediction was made in 1957, 50 years ago, yet we have still done nothing. We will talk PO to death like every other social problem we have and do nothing. Assuming we have until 2030, we will pass this problem onto my kids who will be less than 30 in 2030, supposedly in the prime of their lives, for them to deal with how?

[Lighthouse]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '.').. It could be that lots more than 5/6ths all the oil, coal and gas that had been burned up by 1957 had been torched between 1902 and 1957.

Yep, BS indeed. Why, from the chart, it appears that he was actually a cornucopian energy industry apologist, huh? Got to be part of a cover-up, I'm sure.)

[Lighthouse]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse2', '.')..Here's another point to take from this 1957 prediction - the perspective of how little time we have to address a peak oil and gas problem. Let's assume CERA is right, and that world oil won't peak until 2030; that's a mere 23 years from now. This prediction was made in 1957, 50 years ago, yet we have still done nothing. We will talk PO to death like every other social problem we have and do nothing. Assuming we have until 2030, we will pass this problem onto my kids who will be less than 30 in 2030, supposedly in the prime of their lives, for them to deal with how?