[Euric]

pay attention to numbers 3 and 4.

Striking the US where it hurts

By Victor N Corpus

Victor N Corpus is a retired brigadier general of the Armed Forces
of the Philippines (AFP); former chief of the Intelligence Service,
AFP; and holds a master's degree in public administration from the
Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University.

10/19/06 "Asia Times" -- -- A noted Chinese theorist on modern
warfare, Chang Mengxiong, compared China's form of fighting to "a
Chinese boxer with a keen knowledge of vital body points who can
bring an opponent to his knees with a minimum of movements". It is
like key acupuncture points in ancient Chinese medicine. Puncture
one vital point and the whole anatomy is affected. If America ever
goes to war with China, say, over Taiwan, then America should be
prepared for the following "acupuncture points" in its anatomy to
be "punctured". Each of the vital points can bring America to its
knees with a minimum of effort.

I Electro-magnetic Pulse (EMP) attack
China and Russia are two potential US adversaries that have the
capability for this kind of attack. An EMP attack can either come
from an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), a submarine-
launched ballistic missile (SLBM), a long-range cruise missile, or
an orbiting satellite armed with a nuclear or non-nuclear EMP
warhead. A nuclear burst of one (or more) megaton some 400
kilometers over central United States (Omaha, Nebraska) can blanket
the whole continental US with electro-magnetic pulse in less than
one second.

An EMP attack will damage all electrical grids on the US mainland.
It will disable computers and other similar electronic devices with
microchips. Most businesses and industries will shut down. The
entire US economy will practically grind to a halt. Satellites
within line of sight of the EMP burst will also be damaged,
adversely affecting military command, control, communications,
computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (C4ISR).
Land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles will be rendered
unserviceable in their silos. Anti-ballistic missile defenses will
suffer the same fate. In short – total blackout. And American
society as we know it will be thrown back to the Dark Ages.

Of course, the US may decide to strike first, but China and Russia
now have the means of striking back with submarine-launched
ballistic missiles with the same or even more devastating results.
But knowing China's strategy of "active defense", when war with the
US becomes imminent, China will surely not allow itself to be
targeted first. It will seize the initiative as mandated by its
doctrine by striking first.

China has repeatedly announced that it will not be the first to use
nuclear weapons. But as an old Chinese saying goes: "There can never
be too much deception in war." If it means the survival of the whole
Chinese nation that is at stake, China will surely not allow a
public statement to tie its hands and prevent it from seizing the
initiative. As another saying goes: "All is fair in love and war."

2 Cyber attack
America is the most advanced country in the world in the field of
information technology (IT). Practically all of its industries,
manufacturing, business and finance, telecommunications, key
government services and defense establishment rely heavily on
computers and computer networks.

But this heavy dependence on computers is a double-edged sword. It
has thrust the US economy and defense establishment ahead of all
other countries; but it has also created an Achilles' heel that can
potentially bring the superpower to its knees with a few keystrokes
on a dozen or so laptops.

China's new concept of a "people's war" includes IT warriors coming,
not only from its military more than 2-million strong, but from the
general citizenry of some 1.3 billion people. If we add the hackers
and information warriors from Russia, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela,
Cuba, Syria and other countries sympathetic to China, the cyber
attack on the US would be formidable indeed.

So, if a major conflict erupts between China and America, more than
a few dozen laptops will be engaged to hack America's military
establishment; banking system; stock exchange; defense industries;
telecommunication system; power grids; water system; oil and gas
pipeline system; air traffic and train traffic control systems;
C4ISR system, ballistic missile system, and other systems that prop
up the American way of life.

America, on the whole, has not adequately prepared itself for this
kind of attack. Neither has it prepared itself for a possible EMP
attack. Such attacks can bring a superpower like America to its
knees with a minimum of movement.

3 Interdiction of US foreign oil supply
America is now 75% dependent on foreign imported oil. About 23.5% of
America's imported oil supply comes from the Persian Gulf. To cut
off this oil supply, Iran can simply mine the Strait of Hormuz,
using bottom-rising sea mines. It is worthwhile to note that Iran
has the world's fourth-largest inventory of sea mines, after China,
Russia and the US.

Combined with sea mines, Iran can also block the narrow strait with
supersonic cruise missiles such as Yakhonts, Moskits, Granits and
Brahmos deployed on Abu Musa Island and all along the rugged and
mountainous coastline of Iran fronting the Persian Gulf. This single
action can bring America to its knees. Not only America but Japan
(which derives 90% of its oil supply) and Europe (which derives
about 60% of its oil supply from the Persian Gulf ) will be
adversely affected.

In the event of a major conflict involving superpower America and
its allies (primarily Japan and Britain) on the one hand and China
and its allies (primarily Russia and Iran) on the other, Iran's role
will become strategically crucial. Iran can totally stop the flow of
oil coming from the Persian Gulf. This is the main reason why China
and Russia are carefully nurturing intimate economic, cultural,
political, diplomatic and military ties with Iran, which at one time
was condemned by US President George W Bush as belonging to
that "axis of evil", along with Iraq and North Korea.

This is also the reason why Iran is so brave in daring the US to
attack it on the nuclear proliferation issue. Iran knows that it has
the power to hurt the US. Without oil from the Gulf, the war
machines of the US and its principal allies will literally run out
of gas.

A single blow from Iran or China or Russia, or a combination of the
three at the Strait of Hormuz can paralyze America. In addition,
Chinese and Russian submarines can stop the flow of oil to the US
and Japan by interdicting oil tanker traffic coming from the Middle
East, Africa and Latin America. On the other hand, US naval
supremacy will have minimal effect on China's oil supply because it
is already connected to Kazakhstan with a pipeline and will soon be
connected to Russia and Iran as well.

One wonders: what will be the price of oil if Iran blocks the Strait
of Hormuz. It will surely drive oil prices sky high. Prolonged high
oil prices can, in turn, trigger inflation in the US and a sharp
decline of the dollar, possibly even a dollar free-fall. The
collapse of the dollar will have a serious impact on the entire US
economy.

This brings us to the next "acupuncture point" in the US anatomy:
dollar vulnerability.

4 Attack on the US dollar
One of the pillars propping up US superpower status and worldwide
economic dominance is the dollar being accepted as the predominant
reserve currency. Central banks of various countries have to stock
up dollar reserves because they can only buy their oil requirements
and other major commodities in US dollars.

This US economic strength, however, is a double-edged sword and can
turn out to be America's economic Achilles' heel. A run of the US
dollar, for instance, which would cause a dollar free-fall, can
bring the entire US economy toppling down.

What is frightening for the US is the fact that China, Russia and
Iran possess the power to cause a run on the US dollar and force its
collapse.

China is now the biggest holder of foreign exchange reserves in the
world, accumulating $941 billion as of June 30 and expected to
exceed a trillion dollars by the end of 2006 - a first in world
history. A decision by China to shift a major portion of its reserve
to the euro or the yen or gold could trigger other central banks to
follow suit. Nobody would want to be left behind holding a bagfull
of dollars rapidly turning worthless. The herd psychology would be
very difficult to control in this case because national economic
survival would be at stake.

This global herd psychology motivated by the survival instinct will
be strongly reinforced by the latent anger of many countries in the
Middle East, Eurasia, Southeast Asia, Africa and Latin America that
silently abhor the pugnacious arrogance displayed by the lone
Superpower in the exercise of its unilateral and militaristic
foreign policies. They will just be too happy to dump the dollar and
watch the lone Superpower squirm and collapse.

The danger of the dollar collapsing is reinforced by the mounting US
current account deficit, which sky-rocketed to $900 billion at an
annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2005. This figure is 7% of US
gross domestic product (GDP), the largest in US history. The current
account deficit reflects the imbalance of US imports to its exports.
The large imbalance shows that the US economy is losing its
competitiveness, with US jobs and incomes suffering as a result.

These record deficits in external trade and current accounts mean
that the US has to borrow from foreign lenders (mostly Japan and
China) $900 billion annually or nearly $2.5 billion every single day
to finance the gap between payments and receipts from the rest of
the world. In financial year 2005, $352 billion was spent on
interest payment of national debt alone - a national debt that has
ballooned to $8.5 trillion as of August 24.

The International Monetary Fund has warned: "The US is on course to
increase its net external liabilities to around 40% of its GDP
within the next few years - an unprecedented level of external debt
for a large industrial country."

The picture of the US federal budget deficit is equally grim. Dennis
Cauchon, writing for USA Today said:

The federal government keeps two sets of books. The set the
government promotes to the public has a healthier bottom line: a
$318 billion deficit in 2005. The set the government doesn't talk
about is the audited financial statement produced by the
government's accountants following standard accounting rules. It
reports a more ominous financial picture: a $760 billion deficit for
2005. If social security and medicare were included - as the board
that sets accounting rules is considering - the federal deficit
would have been $3.5 trillion. Congress has written its own
accounting rules - which would be illegal for a corporation to use
because they ignore important costs such as the growing expense of
retirement benefits for civil servants and military personnel. Last
year, the audited statement produced by the accountants said the
government ran a deficit equal to $6,700 for every American
household. The number given to the public put the deficit at $2,800
per household ... The audited financial statement - prepared by the
Treasury Department - reveals a federal government in far worse
financial shape than official budget reports indicate, a USA Today
analysis found. The government has run a deficit of $2.9 trillion
since 1997, according to the audited number. The official deficit
since then is just $729 billion. The difference is equal to an
entire year's worth of federal spending.
The huge US current account and trade deficits, the mounting
external debt and the ever-increasing federal budget deficits are
clear signs of an economy on the edge. They have dragged the dollar
to the brink of the precipice. Such a state of economic affairs
cannot be sustained for long, and the stability of the dollar is put
in grave danger. One push and the dollar will plunge into free-fall.
And that push can come from China, Russia or Iran, whom superpower
America has been pushing and bullying all along.

We have seen what China can do. How can Russia or Iran, in turn,
cause a dollar downfall? On September 2, 2003, Russia and Saudi
Arabia signed an agreement on oil and gas cooperation. Russia and
Saudi Arabia have agreed "to exercise joint control over the
dynamics of prices for raw materials on foreign markets". The two
biggest oil and gas producers, in cooperation, say, with Iran, could
control oil production and sales to keep the price of oil relatively
high. Sustained high oil prices, in turn, could trigger a high
inflation rate in the US and put extreme pressure on the already
weak dollar to trigger a more rapid decline.

Russia is now the world's biggest energy supplier, surpassing Saudi
Arabia in energy exports measured in barrel oil equivalent or boe
(13.3 million boe per day for Russia vs 10 million boe per day for
Saudi Arabia). Russia has the biggest gas reserves in the world.
Iran, on the other hand, runs second in the world to Russia in gas
reserves, and also ranks among the top oil producers. If and when
either Russia or Iran, or both, shift away from a rapidly declining
dollar in energy transactions, many oil producers will follow suit.
These include Venezuela, Indonesia, Norway, Sudan, Nigeria and the
Central Asian Republics.

There is a good chance that even Saudi Arabia and the other oil-
exporting countries in the Middle East may follow suit. They
wouldn't want to be left with fast-shrinking dollars when the shift
from petro-dollar to euro-dollar occurs. Again, the herd psychology
will come into play, and the US will eventually be left with a
dollar that is practically worthless. Considering the strong anti-
American sentiments in the world caused by American unilateralism,
especially in the Middle East, a concerted effort to dump the dollar
in favor of the euro becomes even more plausible.

When the dollar was removed from the gold standard in August 1971,
the dollar gained its strength through its use as the currency of
choice in oil transactions. Once the dollar is rejected in favor of
the euro or another currency for global oil transactions, the dollar
will rapidly lose its value and central banks all over the world
will be racing to diversify to other currencies. The shift from
petro-dollar to petro-euro will have a devastating effect on the
dollar. It could cause the dollar to collapse; and the whole US
economy crushing down with it - a scene reminiscent of the collapse
of the Twin Towers on September 11, 2001. But this one will be a
thousand times more devastating.

A successful assault on the US dollar will make America crawl on its
knees with a minimum of movements. And this assault can come from
China, Russia or Iran - or a combination of the three - if they ever
decide that they have had enough of US bullying.

5 Diplomatic isolation
In 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed from its own weight, the US
emerged as the sole superpower in the world. At that crucial period,
it would have been a great opportunity for the US to establish its
global leadership and dominance worldwide. With the world's biggest
economy, its control of international financial institutions, its
huge lead in science and technology (specially information
technology) and its unequaled military might, America could have
seized the moment to establish a truly American Century.

But in the critical years after 1991, America had to make a choice
between two divergent approaches to the use of its almost unlimited
power: soft power or hard power. The exercise of soft power would
have seen America leading the world in the fight against poverty,
disease, drugs, environmental degradation, global warming and other
ills plaguing humankind.

It would have pushed America in leading the move to address the debt
burden of poor, undeveloped or developing countries; promoting
distance learning in remote rural areas to empower the poor
economically by providing them access to quality education; and
helped poor countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America build
highways, railways, ports, airports, hospitals, schools and
telecommunication systems.

Unfortunately, such was not to be. If there was any effort at the
exercise of soft power at all, it was minimal. In fact, it is not
America which is practicing soft power in diplomacy but a rising
power in the East - China. China has been busy in the past decade or
so exercising soft power in almost all countries in Africa, Latin
America, Central Asia, Southeast Asia, South Asia and the Middle
East, winning most of the countries in these regions to its side.
Through the use of soft power, China has created a de facto global
united front under its silent, low-key leadership.

The US, on the other hand, decided to employ mainly hard power in
the exercise of its global power. It adapted the policy of
unilateralism and militarism in its foreign policy. It discarded the
United Nations and even the advice of close allies. It unilaterally
discarded signed international treaties (such as the Anti-Ballistic
Missile Treaty). It adapted the policy of regime change and
preventive war. It led the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in the
78-day bombing of Serbia purportedly for "humanitarian" reasons. It
invaded Afghanistan and Iraq without UN sanctions and against the
advice of key European allies like France and Germany.

The US-led war in Iraq was a tactical victory for the US initially,
but has resulted in strategic defeat overall. The Iraq war caused
the US to lose its principal allies in Europe and be isolated,
despised and hated in many parts of the world. Without too many
friends and allies, the US is likened to an "emperor with no
clothes".

So in a major conflict between America and China, isolated America
cannot possibly win against a global united front led by China and
Russia.

This brings us to the question of alliances, another "acupuncture
point" in the anatomy of the superpower, which will be addressed in
the second part of this report.

[joewp]

Decent article, but you should just post a paragraph or two with the link to the rest of the piece. There's also a Part 2 that's interesting.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')o one ever imagined before 1991 that China and Russia would come together to form a close-knit alliance politically, diplomatically and, most important of all, militarily. For more than three decades before the break-up of the Soviet Union, China and the USSR had been bitter rivals, even going into a shooting war with each other along their common border.

But now the picture has changed completely. China and Russia have embraced one another and help each other ward off the military advances of the lone superpower in their respective backyards. In fact, it was a series of strategic blunders by the superpower that forced China and Russia into each other's arms. How so?

[MD]

worth a read.

US is done....say bye bye

[lateStarter]

An interesting read, but I found this to be a bit 'silly':

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n the other hand, US naval
supremacy will have minimal effect on China's oil supply because it
is already connected to Kazakhstan with a pipeline and will soon be connected to Russia and Iran as well.

[MacG]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', 'E')ven if that were true, how hard is it to take out a pipeline?

[wowpleasewakeupalready]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', 'A')n interesting read, but I found this to be a bit 'silly':

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n the other hand, US naval
supremacy will have minimal effect on China's oil supply because it
is already connected to Kazakhstan with a pipeline and will soon be connected to Russia and Iran as well.

[Armageddon]

They have already started dumping the dollar, evident by the decline against the euro. America is almost done.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wowpleasewakeupalready', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', 'A')n interesting read, but I found this to be a bit 'silly':

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n the other hand, US naval
supremacy will have minimal effect on China's oil supply because it
is already connected to Kazakhstan with a pipeline and will soon be connected to Russia and Iran as well.

[wowpleasewakeupalready]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wowpleasewakeupalready', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', 'A')n interesting read, but I found this to be a bit 'silly':

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n the other hand, US naval
supremacy will have minimal effect on China's oil supply because it
is already connected to Kazakhstan with a pipeline and will soon be connected to Russia and Iran as well.

[Heineken]

When the rest of the world crumbles, the US will have had a lot to do with it. And we'll ALL be in the shithouse.

Yes, the world needs the US---but not the current US. Maybe something more like the US as it was 60 years ago, before it got sold down the river.

So what's your point, anyway? "My country, right or wrong?"

[wowpleasewakeupalready]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'W')hen the rest of the world crumbles, the US will have had a lot to do with it. And we'll ALL be in the shithouse.

Yes, the world needs the US---but not the current US. Maybe something more like the US as it was 60 years ago, before it got sold down the river.

So what's your point, anyway? "My country, right or wrong?"

[NEOPO]

Red dawn

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wowpleasewakeupalready', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'W')hen the rest of the world crumbles, the US will have had a lot to do with it. And we'll ALL be in the shithouse.

Yes, the world needs the US---but not the current US. Maybe something more like the US as it was 60 years ago, before it got sold down the river.

So what's your point, anyway? "My country, right or wrong?"

[Euric]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', 'A')n interesting read, but I found this to be a bit 'silly':

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n the other hand, US naval
supremacy will have minimal effect on China's oil supply because it
is already connected to Kazakhstan with a pipeline and will soon be connected to Russia and Iran as well.

[wowpleasewakeupalready]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Euric', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', 'A')n interesting read, but I found this to be a bit 'silly':

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n the other hand, US naval
supremacy will have minimal effect on China's oil supply because it
is already connected to Kazakhstan with a pipeline and will soon be connected to Russia and Iran as well.

[Euric]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wowpleasewakeupalready', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', 'A')n interesting read, but I found this to be a bit 'silly':

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n the other hand, US naval
supremacy will have minimal effect on China's oil supply because it
is already connected to Kazakhstan with a pipeline and will soon be connected to Russia and Iran as well.

[wowpleasewakeupalready]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Euric', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wowpleasewakeupalready', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lateStarter', 'A')n interesting read, but I found this to be a bit 'silly':

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n the other hand, US naval
supremacy will have minimal effect on China's oil supply because it
is already connected to Kazakhstan with a pipeline and will soon be connected to Russia and Iran as well.

[Euric]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wowpleasewakeupalready', '
')
If US existance depending on "beating" Iraq as you seem to think the current goal is, you can be sure that there wouldn't be an "Iraq" right now.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wowpleasewakeupalready', 'N')o doubt it's from losers that live in loser countries.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wowpleasewakeupalready', 'I') think the US has made many mistakes - but it also does a lot of good in the world from humanitarian deeds such as giving aid to the poorest of countries, to influencing industrialized economies by dragging them to a better standard of living for the past 100 years.