[Revi]

I used to live with the Mayans in Guatemala. Most people only needed a little kerosene for lamps. They used no fossil fuel besides that. The bus fare would go up a bit in Guate city and people would be flipping busses over and rioting. Not a good idea to push people too far in order to keep somebody's SUV running up in the States.

[pup55]

Here is an updated graph for you. If it really is 3.31 mbpd currently, then three years is about right. It looks as though the "optimistic" 3% decline scenario is not happening. It's actually more like 12%. They were at 3.76 mbpd in 2005.

[Polemic]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')After that, what kind of leverage will they have over the US? Almost none.

[DantesPeak]

To briefly summarize a story in the Mexican press today, there are growing worries that long before Mexican oil exports disappear, federal finances will crash - being that the Mexican government depends heavily on PEMEX for revenue, and most PEMEX revenues come from Cantarell.

Since Mexican pesos are not accepted around the world the same as US dollars, Mexico will be forced to cut back federal spending and probably also imports to pay its bills. Surprisingly, Mexico imports significant amounts of gasoline.

The US bailed Mexico out of financial crisis in the early 90s when Cantarell was still increasing production. But will the US loan Mexico money, or even gasoline, when the fall comes?

[Newsseeker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'T')he US bailed Mexico out of financial crisis in the early 90s when Cantarell was still increasing production. But will the US loan Mexico money, or even gasoline, when the fall comes?

[grabby]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', 'T')o briefly summarize a story in the Mexican press today, there are growing worries that long before Mexican oil exports disappear, federal finances will crash - being that the Mexican government depends heavily on PEMEX for revenue, and most PEMEX revenues come from Cantarell.

Since Mexican pesos are not accepted around the world the same as US dollars, Mexico will be forced to cut back federal spending and probably also imports to pay its bills. Surprisingly, Mexico imports significant amounts of gasoline.

The US bailed Mexico out of financial crisis in the early 90s when Cantarell was still increasing production. But will the US loan Mexico money, or even gasoline, when the fall comes?

[TreebeardsUncle]

Mexico and Africa (except for South Africa) are considered affordable losses. The US governement may extend the 700-mile-long proposed wall at the border to keep out the influx of those largely descended from people who preceded most inhabitants of the US by around 10,000 years. Expect to see many of these individuals subject to substantially greater food insecurity before gas prices get high enough to siginificantly impede suv sales in the US.

g

[Ibon]

A 700 mile fence along the Mexican border demonstrates a total lack of vision. What we need is a huge dome that covers the continental United States. Alaska and Hawaii will have to fend for themselves. Then we can control the skies and borders. On top of that we can include huge intake and exhaust valves so we can dump our excess carbon out the exhaust, say in New Jersey and take in oxygen rich atmosphere from off the coast of California. Then we will have solved all our problems. We lack that good old Star Wars vision that Ronald Reagan had. Come on America. Let's work together to secure our borders and our atmosphere. F**K all those international protocols and a la mierda con los pinche mexicanos. Vive los Estados Unidos!

[Newsseeker]

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Arc ... exico.html

From the article it says that 40% (!) of Mexico's revenue comes from oil and that 55% of Pemex's profits go to the government. Mexico is denifinitely going to be in a hurt locker soon. There has been a 50% drop in oil production over the past five years and little optimism for slowing the decline. America will have to find a new supplier of oil soon because this cliff doesn't look like its ending anytime soon. As the collapse continues I expect Mexico's government to go down with the oil and result in massive (more massive) amounts of illegals going to El Norte.

[Eli]

And the one the thing GW and the new congress agree on is that all the illegals should be given citizenship.

And then we have a guy like Bill Gates who goes down there and tells them send all your workers north. What an asshole he lives in a techno palace surrounded by all his billions, and he invites all of Mexico to come take as many jobs as they can.

It is like they want to set up the ultimate cage fight of the lower class, between all the Mexicans with a 3rd grade education and the soon to be swelling American lower classes. There will be no middle.

Meanwhile GW and all the rest are using the protect and defend clause of the constitution as toilet paper. Viva el Amero!

[pea-jay]

hey while you're talking about that nation's prospects dont forget about our ethanol craze sucking the corn right out of their dinner plates.

[The_Toecutter]

I pretty much have the same opinion as this dude on the issue of immigrants

[seldom_seen]

Let's see we have:

Mexico oil production in terminal decline.
Food being allocated to machines, and raising mexican food prices.
A cratering housing market that employs an army of illegal aliens.
US economy plummeting in to recession.
A decade long drought in the desert southwest.
A general state of anarchy on the US/mexico border.
Mexican gangs targeting black people in LA because they're black.

I think that's a pretty good recipe for social upheaval in both Mexico and the US! I guess I'll grab some popcorn and my glock and see how it all unfolds.

[Newsseeker]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seldom_seen', 'L')et's see we have:

Mexico oil production in terminal decline.
Food being allocated to machines, and raising mexican food prices.
A cratering housing market that employs an army of illegal aliens.
US economy plummeting in to recession.
A decade long drought in the desert southwest.
A general state of anarchy on the US/mexico border.
Mexican gangs targeting black people in LA because they're black.

I think that's a pretty good recipe for social upheaval in both Mexico and the US! I guess I'll grab some popcorn and my glock and see how it all unfolds.

[Dreamtwister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newsseeker', 'h')ttp://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Archives2007/BonnerMexico.html

[Denny]

See this from CNN

" Mexico's projected oil output slashed
EIA says lack of foreign investment will hinder the country's ability to tap resources deep in the Gulf of Mexico.

May 21 2007: 3:42 PM EDT

NEW YORK (Reuters) -- U.S. government forecasters sharply reduced their projection for Mexican oil output in a report released Monday after reassessing the willingness of the Mexican government to open up the country's oil sector to foreign investment.

The Energy Information Administration said in its 2007 International Energy Outlook that Mexican oil production is expected to decline to 3 million barrels per day by 2012 before gradually rebounding to reach 3.5 million bpd by 2030. "

You have to wonder, just how much investment it will take to do that kick up of 500,000 barrels per day, if its beyond Mexico's internal financial reach.

Sure, let's blame the Mexcian government, rather than say the gloomy words that peak oil has arrived south of the border big time.

[Eli]

3.5 million will never happen with or without foreign investment.

Lets see, the US already has deep water prospects that need to be developed. The technology to get at the oil has yet to be developed and the costs are continually going up as the easy oil is used up.


This is pure wishful thinking.

[Ayame]

I'm sure that in the EIA forecast department they have a bunch of monkeys throwing darts at a spinning wheel.

[shortonoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')'m sure that in the EIA forecast department they have a bunch of monkeys throwing darts at a spinning wheel.

[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', 'I')t's not that advanced, it's just a bunch of monkeys throwing darts.