[coyote]

Thanks.

I always heard this was Kunstler's movie, but Gregory Greene is the writer/director.

[dukey]

good film
thx for link

[EnergyUnlimited]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KevO', 'j')ust click, get out the doom cookies and sit back

http://youtube.com/watch?v=Q3uvzcY2Xug

[AgentR]

First off, I want to confirm that I remain a doomer.. that said..

I watched it for the first time this afternoon...

short history of suburbia
creation of suburbia permitted by cars, cheap oil and long commutes.
assertion that without cheap oil, suburbia dies.

short history of cheap oil
reasoning why cheap oil goes away.

A flaw is bothering me though... He never does any math to put a limit point on what is cheap oil. When I've done some math, I get the limit point somewhere way out at like $20/gallon for gasoline as being the top of the spectrum for cheap oil. OTOH, I have a feeling the End of Suburbia producers would not appreciate that assertion; though I am unsure if they could do anything about the math.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'W')hen I've done some math, I get the limit point somewhere way out at like $20/gallon for gasoline as being the top of the spectrum for cheap oil.

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'W')hen I've done some math, I get the limit point somewhere way out at like $20/gallon for gasoline as being the top of the spectrum for cheap oil.

[joewp]

Well, you didn't give a time frame. I was assuming swift increases in price as depletion accelerates in the near future. People won't have the time or the money to trade in their gas-guzzler for a scooter.

Also, as gas/energy prices rise (please note that all energy prices rise in unison, keeping their cost per BTU relatively equal), so will the price of those more efficient vehicles AND demand for them will rise faster than their supply, which will put upward pressure on their price. People will be forced to keep their gas-guzzlers until they just can't afford to drive at all, lose their jobs and houses and live in those aging Expeditions and Escalades.

The End of Suburbia, way earlier than $20/gallon!

[jeezlouise]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'I')'d expect by the time gas gets to $20 a gallon, people will be using vehicles that get about 75 mpg.

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jeezlouise', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'I')'d expect by the time gas gets to $20 a gallon, people will be using vehicles that get about 75 mpg.

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'W')ell, you didn't give a time frame. I was assuming swift increases in price as depletion accelerates in the near future. People won't have the time or the money to trade in their gas-guzzler for a scooter.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'W')ell, you didn't give a time frame. I was assuming swift increases in price as depletion accelerates in the near future. People won't have the time or the money to trade in their gas-guzzler for a scooter.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '
')Fuel cost per pound of truck cargo is extremely tiny.

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', 'F')uel cost per pound of truck cargo is extremely tiny.

[Denny]

I liked the cars in the video. They had some real style.

I remember my older cousin who was the first in her family to move to the suburbs in the mid-50's. Scarborough, just east of Toronto. But they only had one car for a long time. A nice one, mind you, a Cadillac. Still, she used the TTC bus to go downtown to shop every other week or so, and visit her mom at least once a week. They didn't drive their kids around much, they walked to school, rode bikes to go swimming in the summer, etc. Now, everybody thinks they have to haul their kids everywhere on wheels.

Same thing with my mom and dad , who moved to the burbs too a few years later and we only had one car, though we moved a bit later.

So, as I have said before, you can have transit in the burbs. They even had it in the 50's.

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joewp', 'T')here's another factor in the End of Suburbia that you're forgetting. Most of the new houses around here are 4000sq.ft. or more with higher ceilings and natural gas heat.

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', '
')Eventually, sure, but that would require, again, a very steep escalation in price, which I don't think can be achieved by the market. People can do all sorts of hideous things to avoid burning miles, if given the appropriate motivation.

[Denny]

It was interesting in the video, how they pointed out that the earlier suburbs of the 20's often had light rail transit. Even in Canada, a relatively poorer country back then, there used to be light rail from Toronto out 60 miles to Guelph and similar north to Lake Simcoe. But, that died in the Depression.

Even back then, one could travel from Guelph to downtown Toronto in about 1.5 hours. It takes you that today, on a weekday, in a car with the congestion. And, Lord only knows how much more energy per passenger.

So, you have to wonder if we have really advanced that much in lifestyle terms.

[AgentR]

But its still so unbelievably cheap in the car. Rails are mostly gone now, and are better at moving really heavy cargo anyway, but busses would be an entirely reasonable adaptation for $20/gal gas.

[RacerJace]

I have a couple of points to make....

1. It took 15+ years to transition from leaded to unleaded fuel. That was a simple change to the materials and tuning of engines and the implimentations of a new fuel in distribution.

2. The big car makers have trillions of dollars invested in the internal combustion engine technology. Think of all the manufacturing plants pumping out thousands upon thousands of petrol and diesel engines a day. Think about the tens of thousands of people employed in those plants. Not to mention the huge aftemarket and service parts industry.

3. The oil industry is simbiotic to the automotive industry. If the oil market demand crashes too quickly so too does the automotive industry and all other heavily oil related industy... agriculture, and pretty much all non-automotive related manufacturing industry will be hit very very hard. The global economy will suffer. That is the depth of our oil addiction.

4. Electric vehicles are the solution to the problem (anyone seen "Who Killed The Electric Car"?). But in this case the energy problem would be transferred to the eletricity production industry... more power demand = more coal and nuclear plants. Not necessarily the best outcome. Power generation infrastucture can take decades to impliment. This is why hybrids and the fantasy of hydrgen ower is given the stage spotlight.

5. The real problem is all about timing (as many posters have pointed out). We realistically have zero time to rectify the climate change problem. We are most probably past peak oil (definately past peak easy oil). A technology solution is way past its window of opportunity.

6. Even if we now have mature technology to alleviate our problems, it seems the capitalistic powers are not likey to choose these options because these options are discoupled from existing corporate profits and shareholder returns. Keeping the status quo causes a massive amount of momentum and resistance to change.

7. The individual cost incentive to change comes at the point of reaching crisis conditions in most individual situations. When the problem reaches a crisis the average punter will be unable to make the change quickly enough and will inevitably suffer the consequences.... default on debt and prevailing poverty. Debt is a whole other perspective to consider and is a major part of this house of cards.


And climate change will blow the ace off; bringing down this house of debt.

.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')t $20/gal, I insist the center will not hold. The roads are falling apart now with the road covered in 20 MPG cars and heavy trucks,