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THE Blackouts/Brownouts Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: "We weren't very far from a European blackout"

Postby TorrKing » Sun 05 Nov 2006, 14:26:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Torjus', 'U')p? Isn't the cliff supposed to start in 2012?
Olduvai Cliff Revisited

Thank you very much!
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Re: "We weren't very far from a European blackout"

Postby Newsseeker » Sun 05 Nov 2006, 14:48:35

From Duncan:The following study indicates that the 'cliff event' will occur about 5 years earlier than 2012 due an epidemic of 'rolling blackouts' that have already begun in the US. This 'electrical epidemic' spreads nationwide, then worldwide, and by ca. 2007 most of the blackouts are permanent.

In other words, by now we should be witnessing these blackouts which will become permanent next year. Not likely in my opinion.
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Re: "We weren't very far from a European blackout"

Postby Novus » Sun 05 Nov 2006, 15:26:25

The natural gas problem has me deeply worried about the immediate future. We are lulled into a false sense of security by the Natural Gas stockpiles across North America. Under nominal conditions demand has already outstriped supply. We have only been lucky because of the extreamly mild weather in the last year. Last winter was warm and the summer was cool which resulted in low demand for natural gas and the subsequent stockpiles. Though stockpiles have grown actual production has continued to decline. When nominal weather conditions return the stockpiles will quickly be consumed after which a perminent state of blackout will occure accross much of North America.

I think we may be spared for another year or two from such a fate because natural gas power plants can also burn kerosene (jet fuel) without a retro-fit. So if we sacrifice the airlines we might be able to put off teotwawki for another day.
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Re: "We weren't very far from a European blackout"

Postby oddone » Sun 05 Nov 2006, 18:56:09

While cruising the river Ems in Germany the cruise ship "Norwegian Pearl" broke a high power transmission line, causing a domino effect of overloaded power lines throughout Europe.
The resulting blackouts was not a power shortage problem, but reduced network capacity.
These things happens.
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Re: "We weren't very far from a European blackout"

Postby Anthrobus » Mon 06 Nov 2006, 16:58:13

to be precise, this high-voltage-powerline was shut down on purpose and in the wake of it the domino-effect set in. The new-built cruise-ship had to pass under it very closely on its way from the Yard to open sea. Another try will be undertaken this evening to shut down the same power-line and let the ship pass.
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Short Story on blackout

Postby jupiters_release » Wed 08 Nov 2006, 22:57:05

Someone posted a .pdf file of a story on a nationwide blackout caused by solar activity of sorts that also prevented cars from starting. Can't remember the characters' names but one had a black belt grade in karate. Doomer fiction I read about 30 pages at the time, but can't find the link now. If anyone knows please repost here thanks!
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Re: Short Story on blackout

Postby snowshoegal » Thu 09 Nov 2006, 08:03:03

Currently found at link
Scroll down to Survivalist Fiction
Lights Out by Halffast
Chapters 1-10 pdf file
Chapters 11-20 pdf file
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Re: Short Story on blackout

Postby Hiderow » Thu 09 Nov 2006, 08:03:23

A short story eh, it's 600 pages long 8O You must be a fast reader.
Anyway, here's what I think your looking for: link
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Re: Short Story on blackout

Postby jupiters_release » Thu 09 Nov 2006, 10:09:36

Yep a little longer than I remembered, excellent,
thanks guys!
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Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge

Postby Ludi » Tue 23 Jan 2007, 18:24:39

Our recent ice storm was a nice exercise in seeing how well my household did without electricity (only for about 18 hours). We did quite comfortably for this short period.
Last edited by Ferretlover on Thu 02 Apr 2009, 08:41:12, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Merged with THE Blackouts/Brouwnouts Thread.
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Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge

Postby seahorse2 » Tue 23 Jan 2007, 19:39:49

Ludi, This couple didn't fair so well during the latest power outage here (due to ice). The turned on a generator in their basement for heat, carbon monoxide fumes rose into house, and they died.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he couple died Tuesday night after carbon monoxide from a generator leached from a crawlspace into their Bella Vista home, said Tim Cook, an investigator with the Bella Vista Police Department.

NW Arkansas Morning News Online
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Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge

Postby Dreamtwister » Wed 24 Jan 2007, 02:00:02

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse2', 'L')udi, This couple didn't fair so well during the latest power outage here (due to ice). The turned on a generator in their basement for heat, carbon monoxide fumes rose into house, and they died.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he couple died Tuesday night after carbon monoxide from a generator leached from a crawlspace into their Bella Vista home, said Tim Cook, an investigator with the Bella Vista Police Department.

NW Arkansas Morning News Online

I'm going to assume that Ludi isn't stupid enough to run a gas-powered generator indoors.

Image

Of course, I rank the necessity of this warning right next to the one on electric hair driers that say "Do not use in shower". They are ultimately damaging to the quality of the human genome. In fact, I think I'm going to nominate these people for a 2007 Darwin Award.
The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
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Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge

Postby EnergyUnlimited » Wed 24 Jan 2007, 05:35:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dreamtwister', '
')I'm going to assume that Ludi isn't stupid enough to run a gas-powered generator indoors.

Image

Of course, I rank the necessity of this warning right next to the one on electric hair driers that say "Do not use in shower". They are ultimately damaging to the quality of the human genome.

In fact, I think I'm going to nominate these people for a 2007 Darwin Award.


Yep, I had also seen a warning on paint stripper stating that it is not hair dryer and advice on bottom of can of soft drink, that it should be opened from the other end...
And we all know about those awful plastic bags suffocating our babies...
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Re: Review of the Olduvai Gorge

Postby Ludi » Wed 24 Jan 2007, 12:07:15

It might be relevant talking about the end of our way of life to mention the dangers people will face dealing with power outages. Every time there is a severe power outage of this kind, a number of people end up accidentally killing themselves with carbon monoxide, because they are not prepared for a power outage and don't take the proper steps.

But this may be off-topic, I'm not sure. :)
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Re: Power outages - How to cope

Postby Dreamtwister » Wed 24 Jan 2007, 13:30:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gideon', 'I')'d give any major city about 24 hours without power before total chaos was achieved. It would really be a nightmare.


I think that would depend on the city. I know that back in 2003 during that big blackout, Toronto was dark for something like 30 hours. Not only was there no chaos, but citizens were actually out helping direct traffic. Some people were stuck in the subway tunnels for a while, but no violence that I can recall. For Toronto, I'd say 5-6 days before riots broke out, and it would have to be very hot or very cold.

Would the situation be the same in...say...New York or Detroit? I don't know for sure, but I doubt it.
The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
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Re: Power outages - How to cope

Postby PrairieMule » Wed 24 Jan 2007, 14:28:12

In Texas, we are more likely to suffer without a/c in August than freeze in January.

One of the best discoveries I have made, is how comfortable sleeping in a Hammock is in unbearable heat. A durable $20 nylon hammock will dissapate all heat underneath. I have stayed fairly comfortable in 80-85 degree August nights at lake Texoma. Currently I have 3 large hammocks with a homemade rack that supports 500lbs to hang them from in my living room.
If you give a man a fish you will have kept him from hunger for a day. If you teach a man to fish he will sit in a boat and drink beer all day.
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Re: Power outages - How to cope

Postby Dreamtwister » Wed 24 Jan 2007, 14:43:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'W')hat am I missing here? I'm sure there are some big, obvious things.


You might want to think about a battery powered HAM radio or a police scanner (if they are legal where you live) as well. Something that will allow you to monitor local emergency frequencies. This might give you advance notice of things like evacs, supply drops, things of that nature. Anything to give you a little extra lead-time on whatever government assistance might be available.

Personal anecdote time:

During the big ice storm of 1997, my a fellow I know used a hand-crank generator to power his police scanner. That's how he found out about the military doing supply drops nearby.

Being without a method of two-way communication, but quick-thinking and prepared, he lit 3 smouldering fires in a triangle formation in the middle of the town's soccer field. He then proceeded to gather up every extra piece of wood in his yard (ah, the miracle of wood stoves) and fashioned a 25'x15' capital "L" in the middle of the fires.

The smoke attracted the attention of one of the helicopters from some 35km away. The pilot did a flyover, saw the symbol for "Need fuel or oil" (AFAIK this particular symbol is only recognized in Canada) and 2 hours later they choppered in some diesel for the town's generator.


Another thing to keep handy is something to black out your windows. It's probably not a big deal for people like you who live in small towns, but it's a serious consideration for city-dwellers. If there's a long blackout, the flashlight moving around in your window at night is going to be noticeable from a long distance.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'O')n preview - Dreamtwister, I don't think you'd see total chaos in NYC that quickly. I'm not familiar with Detroit, but I've spent plenty of time in NYC.


As you and others have pointed out, New York is probably a special case. In retrospect, it probably wasn't a good choice to illustrate my point. Perhaps Las Vegas would have been a better example. I see that city disintegrating into anarchy very quickly if the power were to go out.
The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
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Re: Power outages - How to cope

Postby DarkDawg » Wed 24 Jan 2007, 15:17:33

We've had more and more blackouts recently. The ice storm that came through here early last week caught a lot of people by surprise. It has been a weird winter to say the least.

Question for Shannymara: Does the SunDanzer have a built-in battery or do you need to buy deep-cycle batteries separately?

During winter up here, when the lights go out for more than a few hours, we just empty the fridge into coolers and put them out on the porch until (hopefully) the power comes back on. We can also make block ice very easily in containers left outside. It would be nice to have one of those freezers available during the months when temps are above freezing.
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Re: Power outages - How to cope

Postby Dreamtwister » Wed 24 Jan 2007, 15:27:24

I don't reccomend using aluminum to black out your windows in this scenario, and I'll explain why. Aluminum foil, even the "dull side" is reflective. Sun reflecting off of aluminum-covered windows is almost as noticeable during the day as those flashlights at night. Granted, it won't be moving and therefore won't give away your position overtly, but it may still draw in unwanted attention.

The best method is probably a combination of blackout curtains and (if possible) exterior overgrowth. This allows you to still look out when necessary without using any eye-catching foil or blatantly obvious wood panels or spraypaint, while still concealing your movements inside. Plus, you'll still be able to crack the window open a little when needed.
The whole of human history is a refutation by experiment of the concept of "moral world order". - Friedrich Nietzsche
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Re: Power outages - How to cope

Postby Dreamtwister » Wed 24 Jan 2007, 16:01:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', 'A')s we say in my gaming circles, "the nail that sticks up gets hammered down."


The best way to hammer down those nails is to put yourself in the other person's shoes. In your case, it would go something like this:

I've been walking for days. I'm hot, tired and hungry. I don't know how I got out of the security perimeter in Austin without getting shot, but I did. God, I need a drink of water. I was forced to walk out, so I threw what I could into my backpack and set off. I've got my gun so I'm not worried about wild animals, but I'm still alone and vulnerable.

Now assume that mindset yourself, go stand on the street and look at your house. What do you see? Do the same exercise from the perspective of a group of refugees, a military patrol and anyone else you can think of.

Oh, and just to make sure this doesn't drift any further off-topic, you need books. Lots of books. It doesn't really matter what books (although useful ones are probably better than casual reading). You may find yourself with a lot of free time. Board games will only entertain you for so long, and not every blackout will degenerate into anarchy, so the more entertainment you have, the better.
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