Why the laws of economics don’t work well with oil

by **Graeme** » Sun 17 Sep 2006, 02:37:16

Why the laws of economics don’t work well with oil

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il-industry executives are naturally eager to peer into the future. They are using the recent drop in oil prices — down by about $15 a barrel — to prove that markets are finally working as they should. And the Opec cartelists are citing the price plunge to prove three things.

First, prices never really were as high as the industry’s critics contended. Even when the oil price reached $78 a barrel in July, it was still far below the inflation- adjusted price of almost $100 a barrel that it hit in April 1980.

Second, the price drop shows that the markets are retreating from the nervousness created by the “peak oil” crowd that has been arguing that the world is running out of oil. So there is no need to subsidise oil substitutes.

Third, the drop in prices has allowed the cartel to indicate to its members that they are free to cut back production as demand for oil dictates. Translation: don’t produce so much as to encourage further drops in oil prices. So much for Opec’s now-forgotten pledge to keep prices below $30 a barrel.

by **rwwff** » Sun 17 Sep 2006, 03:53:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')econd, the price drop shows that the markets are retreating from the nervousness created by the “peak oil” crowd that has been arguing that the world is running out of oil. So there is no need to subsidise oil substitutes.

by **Madpaddy** » Sun 17 Sep 2006, 05:02:37

Things are proceeding according to plan. TPTB aren't ready for the world to accept PO theory so there is a concerted effort from all sides to bring the price down. This coincidentally (not) is coinciding with elections in the US. Funny how a fall from $78 to $62 is today viewed as a massive slide in the price of a barrel of oil. $62 pb would have been inconcievable 3 years ago.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')irst, prices never really were as high as the industry’s critics contended. Even when the oil price reached $78 a barrel in July, it was still far below the inflation- adjusted price of almost $100 a barrel that it hit in April 1980.

by **RonMN** » Sun 17 Sep 2006, 08:52:39

This is starting to draw many parallels with Y2K. I first found out about Y2K in 1994 & back then people were receptive to it. My only message was "Better to be safe than sorry". No bomb shelter or flee to the mountains...but have some food & water on hand & have the gas tank full (no big deal really).

As it drew closer, the verbal assaults on me grew to a frightening level (as i believe will happen with PO, only PO isn't a set date so it'll be based on level of disruption rather than date).

The more TV told the masses that the Y2K'ers were the problem, the more i was verbally attacked (and i hadn't said a word about it for several months at that point).

Finally, in the last 2-3 days before the (non) event, I had most of these "attackers" now asking me for tips on preparation...even the basics seemed to be too much for them, so they decided that if anything bad should happen they would all come to my house.

THIS is what truely frightened me! 70-80 people all thinking i could provide for them if a disaster should happen, while they were unwilling to lift a finger to save themselves or their own children.

Spread the word at your own peril.

by **jeezlouise** » Sun 17 Sep 2006, 11:15:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')econd, the price drop shows that the markets are retreating from the nervousness created by the “peak oil” crowd that has been arguing that the world is running out of oil. So there is no need to subsidise oil substitutes.

by **rwwff** » Sun 17 Sep 2006, 12:10:29

Think of it how biologists must think when people who know nearly zero science say, "humans evolved from gorillas", or something, sorta, kinda, in the ballpark idea. Media people are mostly morons wearing their hearts on their sleeves, couldn't do complicated math if their lives depended on it, and are much more concerned about getting their hair just right, than they are with reading the text of any actual legislation or rulings. So if the say, man evolved from cockroaches, you just have to smile and be happy they didn't suggest space aliens.

The key word and concept got out and was read by many thousands of people. And a few of those will bring up google, type "peak oil", and never look at anything the same, ever again.

Thats the reason it is said that there is no such thing as bad publicity.

by **DantesPeak** » Sun 17 Sep 2006, 13:27:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RonMN', 'T')his is starting to draw many parallels with Y2K. I first found out about Y2K in 1994 & back then people were receptive to it. My only message was "Better to be safe than sorry". No bomb shelter or flee to the mountains...but have some food & water on hand & have the gas tank full (no big deal really).

As it drew closer, the verbal assaults on me grew to a frightening level (as i believe will happen with PO, only PO isn't a set date so it'll be based on level of disruption rather than date).

The more TV told the masses that the Y2K'ers were the problem, the more i was verbally attacked (and i hadn't said a word about it for several months at that point).

Finally, in the last 2-3 days before the (non) event, I had most of these "attackers" now asking me for tips on preparation...even the basics seemed to be too much for them, so they decided that if anything bad should happen they would all come to my house.

THIS is what truely frightened me! 70-80 people all thinking i could provide for them if a disaster should happen, while they were unwilling to lift a finger to save themselves or their own children.

Spread the word at your own peril.

by **NEOPO** » Sun 17 Sep 2006, 17:41:56

Saudi official to his assistant "what was the price today?"
Assistant "$63.00 a barrel sire"
Saudi official to the camera "we feel $60 - $65 per barrel is a fair price for the worlds oil"

Ron - just buy a shit pile of ramen noodles and spam.
At least this way your plebes have a choice.
I would also make them stay in the basement like a hippy infestation and go poopee in my least favorite neighbors yard....
We must try to see the positives as well as the negatives.
Hey you could become lord - an instant village - all you need then is an economist or accountant and your village would be complete! ;-)