[frankFranchesca]

Yesterday I did the “If I were president simulation” at http://broadcast.forio.com/pro/oil/inde ... _rand=1659

Anyone else try it? I know it’s kind of a simplistic exercise on a complex problem, and the results may be very inexact depending on who you talk to w.r.t. to the relative values and importance of the various energy sinks, but it was interesting nonetheless. Probably most people here would get great scores.

Maybe you shouldn’t read my results if you haven’t done the simulation and intend to. But here are mine, for what it’s worth. I kind of expected them as one of my life's mottos is "minimal interference, minimal consumption, and minimal waste"....

Congratulations! You reduced U.S. oil imports by 100%. Imports declined from from 11.44 million barrels per day in 2002 to 0.00 million barrels per day in 2020.

Your initiatives reduced oil consumption by 19.29 million barrels per day.
Oil Demand and Savings in the Year 2020
US Demand Without Initiatives
US Demand with Your Initiatives Savings From Your Initiatives

27.12 7.83 19.29 Million Barrels of Oil Per Day
Your savings is greater than the oil to be imported from OPEC in 2020 (about 9.90 million barrels per day).

Your savings is also sufficient to compensate for the oil to be imported from the Persian Gulf by 2020 (about 5.04 million barrels per day).

With your initiatives, 0% of US oil will be imported in 2020.
2002 Oil Demand--19.58 Million Barrels Per Day
2020 Oil Demand--7.83 Million Barrels Per Day

58% was Imported in 2002 0% will be Imported in 2020 (With Your Initiatives)


Domestically Produced Oil Imported Oil


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Reducing industrial use of petroleum by 70% was your most effective initiative.

Most Effective
4.20 Million
Barrels per Day

Least Effective
0.36 Million
Barrels per Day

Reduce Industrial Oil Use Lower Theromstats

Reducing industrial use of petroleum by 70% was your most effective initiative with a savings of 4.20 million barrels per day. Lowering home thermostats in the winter by 10 degrees was your least effective initiative with a savings of 0.36 million barrels per day.

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http://www.geocities.com/frankFranchesca

[Aaron]

http://www.peakoil.com/article-499--0-0.html

[MattSavinar]

Does the simulation have a "page an intern" option?

[Pops]

I don’t know about the intern option, but it does have an “Invoke Executive Privilege” feature… 'cause I’m not going to tell you my results.

BTW frank, I ain’t voting for you!

[Doctor Doom]

Imports to zero - dang, wish I'd thought of that! Completely impossible of course.

I tried these initiatives:

1. Increase fuel economy to 60 mpg in 5 years.
2. Reduce miles driven by 10% immediately.
3. Drill ANWR starting in 2010.

I managed to hold US oil consumption to just over 20 million barrels / day by 2020, with only 54% of that coming from imports. Not too bad, really.

[k_semler]

Congratulations!
You reduced U.S. oil imports by 23%.
Imports declined from from 11.44 million barrels per day in 2002 to 8.87 million barrels per day in 2020.



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Your initiatives reduced oil consumption by
8.30 million barrels per day.
Oil Demand and Savings in the Year 2020
US Demand Without Initiatives
US Demand with Your Initiatives
Savings From
Your Initiatives

27.12 18.82 8.30
Million Barrels of Oil Per Day


Your savings is greater than the oil to be imported from the Persian Gulf in 2020 (about 5.04 million barrels per day).

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Your development initiatives produced an extra 1.68 million barrels of oil per day.
Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Production



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

With your initiatives,
47% of US oil will be imported in 2020.
2002 Oil Demand
19.58 Million Barrels Per Day
2020 Oil Demand
18.82 Million Barrels Per Day

58% was Imported in 2002 47% will be Imported in 2020
(With Your Initiatives)


Domestically Produced Oil Imported Oil


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Increasing the average MPG of new cars, SUVs, and trucks to 50 MPG was your most effective initiative.
Most Effective Least Effective
4.41 Million
Barrels per Day
0.06 Million
Barrels per Day

Increase Vehicle MPG Residential Conservation
Increasing the average MPG of new cars, SUVs, and trucks to 50 MPG was your most effective initiative with a savings of 4.41 million barrels per day. Reducing residential and commerical consumption of petroleum products by 6% was your least effective initiative with a savings of 0.06 million barrels per day.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Your initiatives have increased domestic oil production and reduced oil consumption.
Demand Without Initiatives Production Without Initiatives
Demand With Initiatives Production With Initiatives


Your initiatives reduced imports by 9.98 million barrels of oil, which is greater than the oil to be imported from OPEC in 2020 (about 9.90 million barrels per day).

[TheSupplyGuy]

I guess my inititaves were too lenient......
Sorry, US imports went up 18% in 2020!

Ouch! Yes, that really was my results.

[Cool Hand Linc]

I was assassinated before my initiatives became policy! LOL

[Guest]

I did great! Maybe I should be president:

Congratulations!
You reduced U.S. oil imports by 100%.

Imports declined from from 11.44 million barrels per day in 2002 to 0.00 million barrels per day in 2020.

Your initiatives reduced oil consumption by
25.38 million barrels per day.
Oil Demand and Savings in the Year 2020
US Demand Without Initiatives
US Demand with Your Initiatives
Savings From
Your Initiatives
27.12 1.74 25.38
Million Barrels of Oil Per Day
Your savings is greater than the oil to be imported from OPEC in 2020 (about 9.90 million barrels per day).

Your savings is also sufficient to compensate for the oil to be imported from the Persian Gulf by 2020 (about 5.04 million barrels per day).
Your development initiatives produced an extra 1.68 million barrels of oil per day.

Arctic National Wildlife Refuge Production
With your initiatives,
0% of US oil will be imported in 2020.
2002 Oil Demand
19.58 Million Barrels Per Day
2020 Oil Demand
1.74 Million Barrels Per Day
58% was Imported in 2002 0% will be Imported in 2020
(With Your Initiatives)

Domestically Produced Oil Imported Oil

Reducing the average miles Americans drive cars, SUVs, and trucks by 90% was your most effective initiative.
Most Effective Least Effective
7.01 Million
Barrels per Day
0.00 Million
Barrels per Day
Car Pooling Increase Vehicle MPG
Reducing the average miles Americans drive cars, SUVs, and trucks by 90% was your most effective initiative with a savings of 7.01 million barrels per day. Increasing the average MPG of new cars, SUVs, and trucks to 90 MPG was your least effective initiative with a savings of 0.00 million barrels per day.

[Soft_Landing]

Those people who tried out the simulation, I trust that you all noticed that US production is forcast to stay flat in the simulation, whereas US production will actually fall heavily during that time frame. Here's a quick reference pici for you all. (From Richard Duncun's paper on dieoff.org)

[Itch]

I'd like a more realistic game. As soon as I implement some kind of measure to reduce fuel consumption, I'd expect my chances of being assassinated to go up by 100%.

[sheilach]

There was one glaring omission in that simulation aside from the assumption of stable oil production when we all know it's been declining and that's population growth and immigration.

Our uncontrolled immigration increases not only our unemployment and lowers our wages, but it also increases our demand for fossil fuels.
I would also ration fuel.

If I were president, I would eliminate immigration as much as possible, no visias, well guarded boarders, no 'green cards', no 'guest workers', no immigration period.
This has nothing to do with 'race', it's about numbers and consumption.

Because we are already overpopulated we will never become energy independent untill our numbers drop to a sustainable value.

Because of the actions of our representatives, that reduction in population will not come by voluntary reduction, but by starvation, wars, civil violence and disease.

Wecome to the new world order.

[IronSheik]

This is a reverse scenerio of the topics: "shoot first, ask questions later" by onyered and "who will live, who will die" by IronSheik

The event has happend and it is you that has no resources. No food or supplies laid in. You are a typical family that has a few days, maybe a week, of foodstuffs in your cabinets.

You are also typical as in you do not have a farm or ranch with many acres and fresh water with livestock. You do not have huge garden or orchards of fruity trees. You are quickly running out of food and water. Within a few days there is no food, gas, water etc..
to be had anywhere. What will you do?

[k_semler]

I would steal my supplies, or die trying.

[Aaron]

I understand that <b>soft landing</b> has a fully stocked yacht which is ripe for the pickin...

[Barbara]

My husband put on his bandit clothes and answered: "Let's find a farm in Tuscany owned by japanese, or americans, or germans and go there. Nobody will come to claim it back!"

[Pops]

I guess we'll be pickin' apples and washing clothes at the big house.

[Chicagoan]

In that case I would be doing what everybody else is doing. Scavenging. But anyone who finds themselves in that situation will not have long to live.

[Aaron]

I'll walk down the street and hunt white tail at the Johnson Space Center. Roast em over a huge pit where they used to launch test rockets. Take turns eating with the sniper out in the grass covering me.
Dance to the sound of 100 drums under a clear, star crowded sky late into the night. Awaken in the arms of a beautiful amazon girl, to a sunrise which explodes across the sky.

-or-

A long painful illness and a raging oral infection leave me bedridden, with no access to medical care, until my humiliating, miserable death.

[born2respawn]

Scavnge and try to relocate: Me and a mate had a halp plan to relocate if it looks like everything's gonna get nasty, but the scavenging around here (British 'burbs) should be pretty good, especially if you're willing to use violence.

Around here "working" for food would be a non-starter, no-ones got the facilities to be prepared even if they had the inclination.