by FatherOfTwo » Fri 04 Aug 2006, 13:35:49
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That this question even gets asked is what makes me a doomer.
The question really is: can you accept reality and learn to cope and adapt? Especially, when the reality is of your own doing?
My answer: yes.
Why is that such a hard position to accept?
The eternal doomer accepts the reality of the unwavering eternal "facts."
The difference between the cornucopian and the doomer may be the inability of the former to accept reality.
I asked for feedback on what makes the doomer tick, and they’ve been interesting posts to read. I just have to respond to the inference that by not being an eternal doomer, that I’m somehow not accepting unwavering eternal facts, or in some other way unable to accept reality.
So, Monte “unwavering eternal facts”. Such as?
That Peak Oil will generate significant economic impacts? I agree 100%
That the stresses of these economic impacts will exacerbate tensions in the world? I agree 100%
That our population will continue to increase even as total available energy is (at least for the short term) drastically dropping? I agree 100%
That we are seriously harming the very ecosystem that we depend on for our sustenance? I again agree 100%
That these factors, plus others, will constitute such an overwhelming force as to drown any chance of stabilizing somewhere at our current standard of living minus x%? What unwavering eternal fact guarantees this prediction? There isn’t one, so this is where I start to disagree strongly, and it is what gives me some hope.
I know I am able to keep an open mind and internalize the consequences of our collective actions. In 2 years I’ve gone from being blissfully ignorant to resigned enlightenment. So I certainly don’t see myself as being unable to “accept reality”. To me the key is that the further you extrapolate out, the farther in advance you try to predict the future, the higher the chances of being wrong. That goes for my predictions too.
IMO there are certain things we can count on, like the items I agreed 100% on. But there are other things too: such as our species desire to survive, our ingenuity, the immense scientific knowledge that we have gained, and paradoxically, the huge amount of fat that we (first world) can burn through before we start hitting muscle and bone. True, it is our ingenuity that has made us clever, but not wise, and gotten us into this pickle. But our ingenuity still is a tool that can be applied and it in conjunction with our scientific knowledge and will to survive, I guarantee that it will account for something. This is not pie in the sky optimism, but a solid grasp of the both the realities on the ground and understanding of our capabilities. Will this require a ton of work and some luck? You betcha.
As always, I’m willing to be shown wrong. If you can prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that it’s lights out for us, then I’m all ears.