by rogerhb » Tue 25 Jul 2006, 23:23:43
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', 'I')f you're such a firm believer in peak oil will end in a huge anarchist event of die offs and endless wars for the next decade after its "grand announcement" then by god, tell me why this is even likely...
There won't be any grand announcement, but once we tip into recession, and depression and more wars, and no end in sight to things not being as good as they used to be, it's good to have a clue as to why. This will also then give you a clue about what you can do personnally to make your life not as bad as it would otherwise be.
"Complex problems have simple, easy to understand, wrong answers." - Henry Louis Mencken
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rogerhb
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by rogerhb » Wed 26 Jul 2006, 01:00:21
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', 'W')ell, the best thing you could do personally is skip the country, and float loans untill this collapse comes, then quickly dash away into the night. Considering paper money will be worthless soon, at least thats the view you take isn't it?
I'm putting my money exactly where my mouth is!
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by JPL » Wed 26 Jul 2006, 17:05:26
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('128shot', 'I') general impression I get from you though, is you just hate people, and you don't care what does what, you would rather see the catasrophe than the continuation of the norm
Predicting something is not the same as wanting it. If you choose to jump off a tall building I predict you will go splat, doesn't mean I want that to happen, but follow the natural laws through and that's what you get.
of course, thats assuming you didn't want me to jump off the building. If you wanted me to, you say "well, you'll die, and..."
From the looks of his posts, he just generally hates society as it is.
The consensus seems to be society has to be grinded to a hault either because you dislike humans, dislike society, or something else you can pull out of the bag.
I find very few people I talk to that are well within a knowledgable group that are concerned about peak oil are just concerned with peak oil.
Come on, when you mention powerdown and die off you either think peak oil will be absurdly twisted (I think this is a tad unrealistic, at least for now), or you hate society. Of course, I'm taking a step and saying we're talking about the worst of powerdowns and die offs, and not the potential famine affects etc
Even matthew simmions publicly stated on TV this is unlikely (In Minnesota, our news station WCCO did a 2 week long series about not just peak oil but american energy waste in general)
I'm playing a bit of an amateur psychologist here, I suppose. I personally am not shocked or bewildered about peak oil. Yet another fact of life for me...
Hi 128,
OK, let me try and help here.
Some of the people on the board (myself included) are old-timers from the Ecological/ Green movement. I learned about Peak Oil about a year ago and although the direction of the shock was a surprise, the general thrust of it wasn't.
The groups I was in 20 years ago were talking THEN about population control, resource depletion, global warming etc. and maybe one of the problems you are facing is that you are coming fresh-faced into an arguement that is already quite mature.
I think part of the problem is, all the old hippies are now struggling to convey a whole mass of concepts to people who may understand the concept of PO, but unlike us, are not into self-sufficiency and backyard chickens (and the reasons why we do it) in the same way.
For myself, I do not 'hate' mainstream culture but I do not want to be a part of it. That has always my personal decision. I would no more want to force my opinions on other people than I would try to shove an egg back up my chicken's butt and say "Think again, pal."
But if you really want to know my opinions, they are these:
1. Peak Oil WILL bring about massive changes in the way we live and although I agree with you that the future is uncertain, us Greens are the only ones right now that have the intellectual capital to deal with it.
2. Everything that has been talked about in this thread can be also re-stated in the context of Climate Change (the Threat Behind the Curtain, as it were).
3. Out-of-print Permaculture manuals are suddenly getting REALLY expensive - that for me is main BUMMER ;o)
JPL
by rwwff » Wed 26 Jul 2006, 19:38:09
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JPL', '1'). Peak Oil WILL bring about massive changes in the way we live and although I agree with you that the future is uncertain, us Greens are the only ones right now that have the intellectual capital to deal with it.
I think thats a bit overstated. A very large number of farmers and kin actually know at least two ways to grow food. They know the industrial way, where their methods are dictated by their customer, and they also know how they manage their own one or two acre "garden" to produce a wide variety of food for family and friends.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '3'). Out-of-print Permaculture manuals are suddenly getting REALLY expensive - that for me is main BUMMER ;o)
Funny how economically mainstreamed grandsons of farmers, can afford to outbid/outspend others on manuals containing information to assist in the resumption of agricultural productive of 20 - 60 acre farm homesteads.
by rogerhb » Wed 26 Jul 2006, 19:47:06
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '[')I think thats a bit overstated. A very large number of farmers and kin actually know at least two ways to grow food. They know the industrial way, where their methods are dictated by their customer, and they also know how they manage their own one or two acre "garden" to produce a wide variety of food for family and friends.
Okay that's good. Now scale that up, those farmers are producing on their few acre plots, now what happens:
1. to the rest of the land now they have no combines.
2. the rest of the people who are so far removed from the land it's not silly.
Good example, in the 1950s schools had home-economics (the only economics classes worth their weight in gold) and they killed and dressed poultry etc. Todays kids doing the same thing would be squealing and throwing up.
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by JPL » Wed 26 Jul 2006, 20:16:08
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JPL', '1'). Peak Oil WILL bring about massive changes in the way we live and although I agree with you that the future is uncertain, us Greens are the only ones right now that have the intellectual capital to deal with it.
I think thats a bit overstated. A very large number of farmers and kin actually know at least two ways to grow food. They know the industrial way, where their methods are dictated by their customer, and they also know how they manage their own one or two acre "garden" to produce a wide variety of food for family and friends.
Hi rwwff,
Yep I acept your points. My wife's family were farmers for 60 years and they still have a lot of knowledge about farming (more that I will ever know).
My counter-point is this:
Our old farm-house (Devon, England - in the heart of the 'red country' - some of the richest soil in Britian) has been sold off to property developers and is now a flash-pad for some un-known 'City' type'.
The land has been sold off and has had its hedges ripped out and is now being 'industrialised' like the rest of the old farms around there.
The old orchard is gone, the kitchen-garden has been levelled and the bit where 'cows us'd ta low in ta' bryre' is now concrete, and space for more 4 * 4's.
The farrier, the egg-man, the hedge-layer, the stone-mason, the village blacksmith, the brewer, the dairy-maid, the wheal-wright, the coupier. Who is left now? Where have they all gone, these vanished souls who used to 'DO' things, on our old farm, in the world before oil?
JPL
by rwwff » Wed 26 Jul 2006, 20:24:27
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', 'O')kay that's good. Now scale that up, those farmers are producing on their few acre plots, now what happens:
1. to the rest of the land now they have no combines.
What they own that exceeds their ability to bring into production with their "garden" scale methods will go different ways depending upon the region. For the land I know... Me and a mule could probably get up to fifteen acres under tilled cultivation without preferring suicide, the remainder could be dedicated to a couple acres of permaculture, pine trees (lumber), fruit trees/perennial vines, and grazing for Ye Olde Beast of Burden, aka Mr. Mule. Zee Pond (say about 10-20 acre-feet of water) could produce a fair yield of farmed catfish or tilapia.
Just because someone's butt has sat in the seat of one of those monster machines, doesn't imply that they can't do something else. In the modern industrial agriculture, Joe can get 100 or so bushels of corn per acre that go for $2.50 a bushel on the trading floor; and spend just a tiny amount of time per acre doing it, so he can *do* a bajillion acres. Basically turning oil into food. Eventually the price of things will flip and we'll choose to turn food into oil, and at some point, the price will get to where Joe can make more money spending more hours per acre, doing less acres, with much less fuel per acre. But price will dictate all of those changes, not philosophy; and when the price does dictate it; Joe's capabilities are going to put most of the hippy generation to shame, all the while he happily appropriates any useful ideas that they might have put in print.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2'). the rest of the people who are so far removed from the land it's not silly.
THAT I don't quibble with. Personally, I've cleaned many more fish than I have ducks and rabbits; and to be honest, I've never de-feather-afified a chicken, since for $3 you get a whole chicken, dressed, at the grocery store. I doubt they are all that much different than ducks; and both ducks and rabbits seemed self-evident to me as a ten year old anyway.
My daughter's a bit to young still to be handling a knife around a slippery chicken or fish, but when she's a bit older, teaching her these things will be every bit as important to me as teaching her math.
by rwwff » Wed 26 Jul 2006, 21:04:10
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JPL', 'T')he land has been sold off and has had its hedges ripped out and is now being 'industrialised' like the rest of the old farms around there.
There are some very large differences between England and America, mostly to do with the number of warm bodies per square mile....
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he farrier, the egg-man, the hedge-layer, the stone-mason, the village blacksmith, the brewer, the dairy-maid, the wheal-wright, the coupier. Who is left now? Where have they all gone, these vanished souls who used to 'DO' things, on our old farm, in the world before oil?
We do wire fence over here, not hedges. No useable stone to speak of. Eggs, agricultural vets, horse people, fencers, framers all local. We have funny laws about alcohol and milk to protect us from ourselves, but I don't drink alcohol and I really hate milk, so no biggy there. Wheelwrights don't exist anymore as far as I know, since metal wheels are so commonplace. Its not a magic art though, and we still do bend and shape wood in other applications. "Coupier" is a word I'm unfamiliar with, we use "cooper"... a world without plastic barrels will really suck, or perhaps leak would be a better word; but I have seen it done, and again, its not an incredibly difficult skill to achieve some tolerable level of competence.
I do understand your counterpoints though, and their implications are greatly magnified on that little island of yours; but we'll have our own problems here, everything is so spread out, farms are often a two days horseback ride to a rail station, industrial agriculture has damaged some soils horribly, and they will take many years of care to return to a healthier state...
by rogerhb » Wed 26 Jul 2006, 21:11:50
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '"')Coupier" is a word I'm unfamiliar with
It's somebody who makes barrels in a casino.
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by JPL » Wed 26 Jul 2006, 21:34:27
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '"')Coupier" is a word I'm unfamiliar with
It's somebody who makes barrels in a casino.[/quote
Yep sorry I used the local spelling. Cooper as in barrel-maker:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooper_%28profession%29
JPL
by rwwff » Wed 26 Jul 2006, 21:46:43
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JPL', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'M')e and a mule could probably get up to fifteen acres under tilled cultivation without preferring suicide.
Not trying to criticise but 15 acres & 1 mule??? I don't know where you live but in European soils you need at least two strong Shire-horses to even get the plough to bite in Then you have about a 12-hour day ahead of you to plough ONE acre.
Wow, I think I'd prefer suicide than try that in Europe. I'm sure there are soils like that in parts of the US, but I can only tell you what I know from the dirt I know. Its much softer than you are describing. Your time isn't likely far off, especially with me driving, though I will grant its always easier with two, if only for balance and cooperation. But the "game" here is describing a shift to minimizing outside inputs in order to maximize $$ net profit. The problem being you need to generate $20 (US2006) an acre to clear the taxes on the property. With industrial methods, you have a low per unit price, and you maximize the unit prodution per acre with the assumption that other inputs are very inexpensive per acre. In the future, that assumption may not hold true, and it will be more important to minimize inputs and increase the number of hours / acre / harvest in order to find an optimal yield in dollars per year.
So, again, given the dirt I know, me and Mr Mule go out at 5 am, February 10th, and do one acre a day; I should reasonably expect to be ready to roll a couple weeks before the official last frost date and can make a decision about whether to "cheat" as my greatuncle often did. He did it by intuition, I'll do it by mid range computer models.
The ground never freezes here. In fact, I didn't know ground froze anywhere till I was in my thirties. Never occured to me. Rocks are something you go on vacation to see, though there are some soft things in the creek bed that sorta resemble rocks....
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')paraphase work describing using a mule drawn plow.
Yes, I've never suggested it was anything other than extremely hard work. I don't drink cider though, Apples are not well suited to our region; though there are admittedly a few varieties that will produce with tolerable reliability.
Peaches... definately. There are grapes that are acceptable. No really good juicing citrus though either. We're kinda in a no-man's land on the fruit tree score. Not enough chilling hours and just enough hours of below freezing temps to injure most citrus trees. On the other hand, we've got good sun, water, and warm temps for a very, very long portion of the year.
I do want to acknowledge that I am no expert and don't claim any such distinction. I still have significant holes in my knowledge base which I am steadily working to fill and test. The farmers in my family passed before I could learn as much as I might have wished. So a lot of this knowledge I am having to acquire by the read and test method which is slow and annoying, but has proven effective over the last five years that I've been doing it.
