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Peak Carpet Padding?

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Peak Carpet Padding?

Unread postby turtleT » Mon 19 Jun 2006, 11:46:35

www.coloradoan.com

It's utterly amazing how much this sounds like the oil crisis. Down to the requisite upbeat conclusion that the situation won't last forever.

T
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Re: Peak Carpet Padding?

Unread postby SoothSayer » Mon 19 Jun 2006, 12:34:23

Weird.

I suspect that we'll get lots of this sort of thing over the next years.

The world will become a tattier, shabbier place in slow motion.

However at some point when a couple of these "minor" problems interact we will end up with something which stops trains running, or stops antisepetics being made or something equally annoying.
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Re: Peak Carpet Padding?

Unread postby turtleT » Mon 19 Jun 2006, 14:47:44

For those that don't want to read the whole article, here are some tidbit quotes. What I find fascinating is not so much the subject, but the wording of the piece. It's as if they already have a template to use when oil shortages become obvious.

Price Increases due to supply:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ') Price increases could add hundreds of dollars to the cost of new construction and recarpeting jobs.
Shirley Beliveaux, manufacturer sales representative for Foamex, said she's never seen anything like the current shortage in her 28 years in the business.


Timeframe:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')My sources say it could be this way through the end of the year or longer," said Beliveaux. "There's no light at the end of the tunnel."


Reasoning or Blame:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')epending on whom you talk to, blame for the shortage and the associated price hikes can be attributed to myriad factors, including the booming economy in China, a shift in European construction tastes, rising petroleum costs and the long-lasting effects of Hurricane Katrina.


Surprise:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')xcept for seasonal fluctuations, the markets for trim and rebond pad have been relatively stable since the '70s. Last fall, the market took a big hit.

"The trigger was Katrina," said Ken Thompsen, vice president of the carpet cushion division of Carpenter Co. "Katrina wiped out several chemical manufacturers that produce the chemicals needed to make polyurethane foam. That sent the whole industry into a tailspin."


China (of course!):
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') shortage of trim already existed because manufacturers of products that use foam were rapidly moving operations to China and other Asian countries. China, historically an exporter of trim foam to the United States, now utilizes the majority domestically, and has drastically reduced exports to the U.S.


Price Gouging:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')ll of this leaves the U.S. rebond market in a world of hurt. As the price of rebond increases, accusations of price gouging are flying - something Thompsen takes issue with.


To pass or not to pass those prices increases on...
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hose price increases have now percolated to the retail level. ... At first, many dealers absorbed the cost increases, believing they were temporary. Now, with rationing inevitable, dealers have little choice but to raise prices and begin steering customers in other directions.


Little businesses hurt first:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'â')€śSmaller dealers are already not receiving their shipments, because the distributors are trying to keep the big guys happy. Next week, I don’t know if we’ll get any pad. We now understand that this could be the end of rebond as a product.”


And of course, alternatives:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hile many dealers are moving their customers toward alternative carpet cushions, no one is entirely sure that consumers will be happy with the choices.

There’s also the matter of production capacity for alternative carpet cushions. Many industry insiders believe the infrastructure simply doesn’t exist to support a rapid shift to other materials.

The lack of alternatives may at some point push consumers away from carpet altogether. Neuhart has already seen carpet slip from 75-80 percent of Carpet Mill Outlet’s sales last year to about 60 percent today.

Ignorance/Denial:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')any builders shrug off the price increases — either they aren’t yet aware of the rebond shortage, or it’s just one more bit of bad news in an industry plagued by rising material costs.

Housing market:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'â')€śIt’s crazy,” said Ron Tomasini, owner of Tomasini Construction in Fort Collins. “When you combine the carpet pad situation with the fact that copper has doubled in the last year, I worry about what’s going to happen to the housing market. Are we going to be able to pass these costs along, and will people buy the houses if we do?”

High prices here to stay:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'â')€śIt will come down, but we don’t think it will ever go as low as it has been historically,” Thompsen said.
“Those days are over.”
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Re: Peak Carpet Padding?

Unread postby SoothSayer » Mon 19 Jun 2006, 16:25:08

Nice observation turtleT ... although surely you can't be right???

More likely the output of someone of an analytical nature who has thought through the problem.
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Re: Peak Carpet Padding?

Unread postby no_name » Tue 20 Jun 2006, 00:54:17

Link



And now we have peak goop aswell.



Asphalt is made from sand, gravel and other substances that are bound together by a goopy substance called liquid asphalt. Liquid asphalt is made from the remnants of oil after it is refined into gasoline and other products.
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Re: Peak Carpet Padding?

Unread postby SoothSayer » Tue 20 Jun 2006, 03:46:50

I can imagine fuel prices increasing, road travel & transport declining in tandem.

The roads will get less repair due to cost and so will reinforce the effect - people don't like bad roads.

Eventually there will be less need to keep the roads fixed because the traffic will be low.

This will be a nasty feedback loop : the roads could get bad quite quickly.

The market for "delicate" high tech trucks will decline, and rugged 4WD trucks like those used in foreign disaster relief efforts will become more in demand ... after all, there will always be SOME heavy road traffic.

Image

We are looking forward to a world of bumpy roads, chunky trucks and bumpy carpets!
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Re: Peak Carpet Padding?

Unread postby jdmartin » Tue 20 Jun 2006, 21:52:13

Great link. I especially like this quote:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')Some roads are going to continue to get worse and worse, and eventually some will be converted to gravel whether we like it or not," says Dirk Rogers, highway superintendent in Brown County, S.D.


Maybe I shouldn't send off my gas-guzzling 4wd pickup just yet! ;)
After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
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Re: Peak Carpet Padding?

Unread postby catbox » Wed 21 Jun 2006, 01:48:58

The less carpet foam the better!.....Carpet sucks anyway.
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Re: Peak Carpet Padding?

Unread postby Eli » Sat 15 Jul 2006, 00:58:02

Ok this is funny,

I am bringing this thread up again because I went to buy some new carpet today with the Wife and the guy selling carpet said that they would probably not have carpet pad in two months. He said it had to do with Katrina and oil prices, so I decided to do an Internet search for carpet pad and oil.

Where do I end up? right back here.

I seriously think this could be a very good indication that we are past peak.

A well known everyday product that uses Petrochemicals as its main ingredient and it is no longer available? That does not make sense in a free market, where is that damn invisible hand.
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Re: Peak Carpet Padding?

Unread postby rogerhb » Sat 15 Jul 2006, 01:37:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('catbox', 'C')arpet sucks anyway.


Eh, no, that's the job of the vacuum cleaner.
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Re: Peak Carpet Padding?

Unread postby strider3700 » Sat 15 Jul 2006, 02:27:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('catbox', 'C')arpet sucks anyway.


Eh, no, that's the job of the vacuum cleaner.


You ever pull up old carpet? Damn gross. Vacuum's suck at sucking it turns out.
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Re: Peak Carpet Padding?

Unread postby SoothSayer » Sat 15 Jul 2006, 03:45:32

Vacuum's suck at sucking it turns out.

Get a Dyson ...
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Re: Peak Carpet Padding?

Unread postby TheTurtle » Sat 15 Jul 2006, 08:33:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'W')here do I end up? right back here.
Ironic ...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'I') seriously think this could be a very good indication that we are past peak.
I agree. The signs are there for those who can see.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'A') well known everyday product that uses Petrochemicals as its main ingredient and it is no longer available? That does not make sense in a free market, where is that damn invisible hand.
Digging through the sand, looking for more oil? :P

I believe we will see more and more such common place items becoming less common as this whole thing unfolds. Of course, I agree with Thoreau that much of what we THINK we need, we really don't need at all. :roll:
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Re: Peak Carpet Padding?

Unread postby SoothSayer » Sat 15 Jul 2006, 08:40:46


A well known everyday product that uses Petrochemicals as its main ingredient and it is no longer available? That does not make sense in a free market, where is that damn invisible hand.


See my post in the Europe forum on the UK car tyre price increase of 100% in 12 months ...

A lot more oil-based items are going to get expensive - or unavailable.
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Re: Peak Carpet Padding?

Unread postby Eli » Sat 15 Jul 2006, 08:50:47

Another one that I think is going to go is asphalt roofing.

As the oil supply gets tighter this is going to get so much worse, just like the UK tyre example, . People are going to want to put a new roof on their house and there is not going to be any shingles to do it.
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Re: Peak Carpet Padding?

Unread postby TheTurtle » Sat 15 Jul 2006, 08:57:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Eli', 'A')nother one that I think is going to go is asphalt roofing.

As the oil supply gets tighter this is going to get so much worse, just like the UK tyre example, . People are going to want to put a new roof on their house and there is not going to be any shingles to do it.


Well, I've been wanting to put a metal roof on my house anyway. I'm due for a new roof in another year or so. If asphalt shingles are more expensive, it will motivate me to do the right thing. :P
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