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Cornucopians vs Doomers

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Re: Cornucopians vs Doomers

Unread postby rwwff » Tue 20 Jun 2006, 14:24:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', 'R')ight wingers are very strong on community, but a community that is built around churches, and for the wealthy, country clubs and such. This lefty artificial village stuff is just bunk.
Churches care about resource analysis? If your community believes the earth was created 4,000 years ago why worry about 100 million-year old petroleum?


No, but the moms, farmers, doctors, engineers, and teachers amongst the congregation do care. And thats what counts. The church, however, is the community that they tend to organize themselves around. Right wingers respect this naturally forming community much more than these artificially formed hippy villages.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')What self-respecting billionaire is going to play golf on a dead, brown course?


I don't know any billionaires. M's yes. And the golf nuts amongst them will play on a garbage dump if they have to. Round here though, they won't have to. The course might not be perfect, but it'll be green. It'll also be tended with hand tools, scythes, and reel mowers, by people who lost their jobs in the crash. We only need the chemicals and extra water to get from lush and green, to absolutely perfect.

PS: I hate golf; I just have friends that are golf nuts.
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Re: Cornucopians vs Doomers

Unread postby smiley » Tue 20 Jun 2006, 15:22:17

Monte, look at what you are saying:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')It is that a techno-fix doesn't exist that will solve this issue.


For you "this issue is clear": "exponential growth in a finite environment" , but can you understand that such a definition is not workable from the viewpoint of for instance someone who is used to work under the S.M.A.R.T. guidelines?

Specific: clear about what, where, when, and how the situation will be changed;
Measurable: able to quantify the targets and benefits;
Achievable: able to attain the objectives . . . . (knowing the resources and capacities at the disposal of the community);
Realistic: able to obtain the level of change reflected in the objective;
Time bound: stating the time period in which they will each be accomplished.

You cannot measure "this issue". You can not say we have to reduce "this issue" by 20% by 2020 or else we're fried. So for people like them it is like asking them to deliver a specified solution for an unspecified problem, which they will consider like cheating.

By the way. I'm not attacking your viewpoint here. Personally I believe (and know) there are sustainable and workable Techno Fixes for some aspects of our energy use, but also I wholeheartedly agree that any attempt to lower our dependence on energy is worthless if we do not achieve negative population growth.

What I want to do here is to look at how people think and how the way they think is reflected in their communication. The first step in effective communication is understanding the other, right.
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Re: Cornucopians vs Doomers

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 20 Jun 2006, 15:54:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', 'M')onte, look at what you are saying:

For you "this issue is clear": "exponential growth in a finite environment" , but can you understand that such a definition is not workable from the viewpoint of for instance someone who is used to work under the S.M.A.R.T. guidelines? What I want to do here is to look at how people think and how the way they think is reflected in their communication. The first step in effective communication is understanding the other, right.[/


Of course I do. I have quoted myself several times about this:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Montequest', 'I')t is difficult, if almost impossible (even in scientific discussions) for people of one paradigm to communicate with those who perceive and reason in terms dictated by another different paradigm.


People are looking for ways to fix an unsustainable system. They are trying to put band-aids on the symptoms, while ignoring the cause.

People seem to dismiss the world paradigm as some esoteric mumbo-jumbo.

It is not. It is the key to all of this.

We must come to realize that what is happening to us is just a mere sequel to our past achievements.
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Re: Cornucopians vs Doomers

Unread postby smiley » Tue 20 Jun 2006, 18:56:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eople seem to dismiss the world paradigm as some esoteric mumbo-jumbo.


Maybe that is because "the world pardigm" is esotheric mumbo jumbo.

Esotheric doesn't mean that something is not true. It just means that it is beyond the reach of our rational abilities.

A grand unified theory of our world from thermodynamics up certainy qualifies as being esotheric.
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Re: Cornucopians vs Doomers

Unread postby WebHubbleTelescope » Tue 20 Jun 2006, 21:03:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', 'L')eft-wingers believe in the supremacy of community and that government has a responsibility to redistribute wealth. Peak oil will increase the need for community as modern police and military machines weaken. Peak oil unemployment will make us all wards of the state.

Right-wingers can not consider these truths.


Right wingers do consider these things, but we/some of us, don't consider them to be factual representations or predictions.


Which brings back my question: why don't the right-wing bloggers and pundits talk about oil depletion issues? Do they expect the churches will solve the problem in the pews, or that the country-clubber's will hash it out on the 19th hole? Either way, the public media types don't talk about it. The right-wingers in this forum are essentially detritus of the Republican party.

BTW, an economy that simply prints money is equivalent to a government that levies a flat tax. That is why the Republicans don't care about driving the government into the ground. They will do anything to establish a regressive tax policy even if it means trashing the political process along the way.
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Re: Cornucopians vs Doomers

Unread postby Jack » Tue 20 Jun 2006, 21:25:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', '
')Which brings back my question: why don't the right-wing bloggers and pundits talk about oil depletion issues? Do they expect the churches will solve the problem in the pews, or that the country-clubber's will hash it out on the 19th hole?


Actually, it IS being discussed in the 19th hole where I am. From the perspective of making profits, of course. The results have been quite satisfactory. 8)


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', '
')BTW, an economy that simply prints money is equivalent to a government that levies a flat tax. That is why the Republicans don't care about driving the government into the ground. They will do anything to establish a regressive tax policy even if it means trashing the political process along the way.


You say that as if it's a bad thing. Inflation can be profitable, if you know how to invest.
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Re: Cornucopians vs Doomers

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 20 Jun 2006, 21:27:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smiley', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')eople seem to dismiss the world paradigm as some esoteric mumbo-jumbo.


Maybe that is because "the world pardigm" is esotheric mumbo jumbo.

Esotheric doesn't mean that something is not true. It just means that it is beyond the reach of our rational abilities.

A grand unified theory of our world from thermodynamics up certainy qualifies as being esotheric.


It's esoteric, not esotheric, by the way. ;)

It means it is beyond the "reach" of most people's grasp. I meant that it is viewed as intended for a chosen few or an inner group who will buy into it. Cult-thinking or something.

Some excerpts from my old post:

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic2444.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he Christian view of history, which dominated western Europe throughout the middle ages, perceived life in this world as a mere stopover in preparation for the next. They saw history as an ongoing struggle with evil’s attempt to sow chaos in a world headed for perfection. The doctrine of original sin precluded the possibility of humanity ever improving its lot in life. To the medieval mind, God controlled every single event. God made history, not people. The human purpose was not to “achieve things” but to seek salvation.

By the middle of the eighteenth century, all the key elements for another paradigm shift in world view were unified. Our current world view is based upon classical, or “Newtonian mechanics” after Sir Isaac Newton and his laws of motion. This is a model of the physics of forces acting upon bodies.

Big thinkers of the time, like Rene Descartes, concluded that the world was one of mathematical precision, not confusion. It was a short journey from the cold, inert universe made up of pure dead matter in motion to the world of pure materialism. The answer, it was assumed, was to use the principles of mechanics to rearrange the stuff of nature in a way that best advanced the material self-interest of human beings: The more material well-being we amass, the more ordered the world must be getting. Progress, then, is the amassing or ever greater amounts of material abundance which leads to a more ordered world. Science and technology are the tools to get the job done.

The mechanical world view is losing ground every day as the energy base upon which it was nourished declines. If there is a history to look back on post-peak, future generations will shake their heads in disbelief at the 300 years we call the machine or modern age, for they will be living under an entirely new world paradigm. They will call our Machine Age, the Age of Illusion.


We have not always viewed the world as we do today. We view it as we do largely do to the types and quantities of energy available to meet this vision.

Our current worldview must, and will change.
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Re: Cornucopians vs Doomers

Unread postby rwwff » Tue 20 Jun 2006, 21:33:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ight wingers do consider these things, but we/some of us, don't consider them to be factual representations or predictions.


Which brings back my question: why don't the right-wing bloggers and pundits talk about oil depletion issues?
Because right wing policy makers are DOING things about it. Talking about it in public is a pointless excercise that would make the economy more jittery while accomplishing nothing.

I understand that you do not approve of the chosen path for dealing with Peak Oil. It would be nice to be accorded the same understanding. People can disagree without thinking the other side is driven by malice.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')o they expect the churches will solve the problem in the pews, or that the country-clubber's will hash it out on the 19th hole?
Why should they. They've already decided what we're going to do, and elected people to make it happen, or go down in flames trying.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')ither way, the public media types don't talk about it. The right-wingers in this forum are essentially detritus of the Republican party.
Whats this obsession with talking about it? The decision has been made, sorry you weren't included in the debate.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')BTW, an economy that simply prints money is equivalent to a government that levies a flat tax. That is why the Republicans don't care about driving the government into the ground. They will do anything to establish a regressive tax policy even if it means trashing the political process along the way.

heh heh heh, noticed that did you.

And to think, you guys traded it all away so you could beat up on redneck gun owners. Its hard for me to even express how funny I think that is.

Worth it?


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '
')Actually, it IS being discussed in the 19th hole where I am. From the perspective of making profits, of course. The results have been quite satisfactory. Shhhhhh!!!! Don't let them know how cool those royalty checks have been over the past couple years..
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Re: Cornucopians vs Doomers

Unread postby WebHubbleTelescope » Tue 20 Jun 2006, 22:06:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', '
')BTW, an economy that simply prints money is equivalent to a government that levies a flat tax. That is why the Republicans don't care about driving the government into the ground. They will do anything to establish a regressive tax policy even if it means trashing the political process along the way.


You say that as if it's a bad thing. Inflation can be profitable, if you know how to invest.


Find one right-winger that admits to the fact that printing money is equivalent to a flat-tax. And that's what BushCo is doing with their tax-cuts and increased spending. That's my premise: they don't talk about this crap because it reveals their agenda too clearly.

And don't forget how printing money has an effect on global investors. You are basically shredding foreigner's investments, and encouraging the rethugs in their Ponzi-scheming ways ("Inflation can be profitable"). At least a progressive tax keeps the pain internal.
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Re: Cornucopians vs Doomers

Unread postby WebHubbleTelescope » Tue 20 Jun 2006, 22:22:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ight wingers do consider these things, but we/some of us, don't consider them to be factual representations or predictions.


Which brings back my question: why don't the right-wing bloggers and pundits talk about oil depletion issues?
Because right wing policy makers are DOING things about it. Talking about it in public is a pointless excercise that would make the economy more jittery while accomplishing nothing.


Policy makers don't DO anything. The word "policy" is derived from "politics". It means to influence somebody by rationalizing a possible course of events. The fact that you are worried that the economy is poised on "jittery" due to criticism of a policy points to a loss of faith in its underlying mechanism. A stable economy should be robust against perturbations.

Cripes, I am an engineer and I wouldn't design anything that hinted of metastability. Yet, you are afraid of somebody talking about a policy and that it could potentially set the economy into open-loop oscillations. Lot of confidence in free-market economics there, buddy.

rwwfffff thinks that Cheney's secret energy task force report is better left kept to the republican policy gods. Heaven forbid that the thing leaked out and the economy goes into a tailspin. Because we all know that BushCo has everything all worked out.
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Re: Cornucopians vs Doomers

Unread postby rwwff » Tue 20 Jun 2006, 22:25:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', 'A')t least a progressive tax keeps the pain internal.
Exactly why would we want to keep the pain internal????????
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Re: Cornucopians vs Doomers

Unread postby Jack » Tue 20 Jun 2006, 22:41:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', '
')Find one right-winger that admits to the fact that printing money is equivalent to a flat-tax. And that's what BushCo is doing with their tax-cuts and increased spending. That's my premise: they don't talk about this crap because it reveals their agenda too clearly.

And don't forget how printing money has an effect on global investors. You are basically shredding foreigner's investments, and encouraging the rethugs in their Ponzi-scheming ways ("Inflation can be profitable"). At least a progressive tax keeps the pain internal.


Perhaps they don't talk about it because there is no need. Those who are reasonably attuned to the markets and do a modicum of homework invest appropriately to benefit. The pages of Barron's are (and have been) full of such discussions. As for it being a sort of flat tax, why belabor that point? It would merely stir up those who oppose a flat tax.

The effect on global investors is the best part. Fundamentally, we default on half our debts - or more - in a stealthy way. They give us stuff in exchange for debt, we devalue the debt, thus we grant ourselves a retroactive discount. I believe this is the third time we've done it.

Frankly, I believe it's a sin not to relieve a fool of his money. And I wouldn't want to commit any more sins. 8)

There is no benefit in keeping the pain internal. It's better to export it. Really, I cannot imagine why anyone wouldn't want to do so. At the very least, we should share the pain. After all, sharing is supposed to be a good thing, right? :twisted:
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Re: Cornucopians vs Doomers

Unread postby rwwff » Tue 20 Jun 2006, 22:46:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', '
')Policy makers don't DO anything.

So if Bush, The Policy Maker, gives the order to nuke Tehran, thats not DOING anything??? I can't concur with that at all.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') stable economy should be robust against perturbations.

I'm uninterested in shoulda, woulda, coulda. I'm only interested in IS. The economy is rockin, but it is not what I'd call stable.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Cripes, I am an engineer and I wouldn't design anything that hinted of metastability. Yet, you are afraid of somebody talking about a policy and that it could potentially set the economy into open-loop oscillations. Lot of confidence in free-market economics there, buddy.

I don't know that I'd use the word confidence. Simply because I understand what the choice is doesn't imply that I'm entirely pleased with it. It beats the alternative, I suppose. I certainly do not wish them to fail.

As to engineering something inherently unstable, its done often enough for various reasons; X-29 is an off the cuff example of engineering something that is quite unstable.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'r')wwfffff thinks that Cheney's secret energy task force report is better left kept to the republican policy gods. Heaven forbid that the thing leaked out and the economy goes into a tailspin. Because we all know that BushCo has everything all worked out.


I don't know whether they have everything worked out. I am fairly certain, based upon observed actions, what choices have been made. I think you can rest assured that Cheney's report will be properly veiled in diplo-speak (if we ever see it). The real report, ie, the recommendations, will never have been written down. From Cheney's lips to Bush's ears, unveiled, harsh, and completely indelicate.
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Re: Cornucopians vs Doomers

Unread postby rwwff » Tue 20 Jun 2006, 23:03:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', 'C')ripes, I am an engineer and I wouldn't design anything that hinted of metastability.

I've been thinking about that sentence for a few moments here... "Metastable" may be exactly the right word to describe the system that we've intentionally designed.

Never forget, instability is not necessarily bad. A powerful, unstable force, is extremely agile and a bit unpredictable.
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Re: Cornucopians vs Doomers

Unread postby WebHubbleTelescope » Wed 21 Jun 2006, 00:03:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', ' ')As for it being a sort of flat tax, why belabor that point? It would merely stir up those who oppose a flat tax.


I will keep on belaboring the point. For those that don't understand this economic ju-jitsu, it works like this: the fed needs to print money to replace the currency that gets lost, worn out, and to loan to investors (treasury notes, etc). The usual route is to go through the fed reserve banks. Now consider what happens when the new money gets routed directly to government agencies. In that case, the banks really play no part of it and the money goes directly in the hands of government workers and projects, having never gone through the tax-paying cycle. In the end, the money acts like a tide that lifts (or lowers) all boats. Most people are none the wiser, as the effect is diffused over a large number of people.
What people don't appreciate, however, is that this serves as a highly regressive tax, or a flat tax, which in the end provides an inflationary pressure that affects everyone proportionally, but affects the lower strata more because lower income people tend to use more of their income. Steve Forbes, and other Republicans love the flat-tax idea because there are enough regressive taxes, such as social security, to tip the balance their way.

What is most amazing about this idea, is that it doesn't go anywhere near tin-foil hat territory. There is nothing physically impossible about doing this and it doesn't take a huge conspiracy, just a little bit of behind-the-scenes government bureaucracy. And to top it off, the government can keep on giving extra tax breaks to the rich, insured in the knowledge that they can continue to make government payrolls. They don't even have to go through the charade of offering up treasury notes to "borrow" against.

So what's this about "stir(ring) up those who oppose a flat tax" ? I really don't understand your concern. What's wrong with tossing out this information? The more we understand Ponzi schemes, 3-card monte, etc. the more enlightened we become.

As someone said recently: "The problem with Reagan was that he wanted to roll back the New Deal. The problem with Bush is that he wants to roll back the Age of Enlightenment".
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Re: Cornucopians vs Doomers

Unread postby WebHubbleTelescope » Wed 21 Jun 2006, 00:17:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', 'C')ripes, I am an engineer and I wouldn't design anything that hinted of metastability.

I've been thinking about that sentence for a few moments here... "Metastable" may be exactly the right word to describe the system that we've intentionally designed.

Never forget, instability is not necessarily bad. A powerful, unstable force, is extremely agile and a bit unpredictable.


Okay, let's get rid of feedback control systems from:


That would be a lot of fun. Anybody ready to sign up for a ride on a 777 w/o any feedback control systems to harness that powerful force coming out of the engines?

And what is this agility you speak of? Are you a software guy who does what is called agile development? In fact, high quality agile development is critically dependent on a good regression test environment. Without that, you end up with a huge stinking mess of software that ends up losing money through endless maintenance costs. Tests are the feedback that enforce higher quality software and regulate the effects of human entropy in the practice of coding.

Overall, I suggest you keep thinking.
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Re: Cornucopians vs Doomers

Unread postby Jack » Wed 21 Jun 2006, 00:25:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', 'S')o what's this about "stir(ring) up those who oppose a flat tax" ? I really don't understand your concern. What's wrong with tossing out this information? The more we understand Ponzi schemes, 3-card monte, etc. the more enlightened we become.



There's nothing wrong with tossing out the information - it's just (largely) pointless. The poor are often ill-educated, so they generally won't understand the issues. And, too, in my corner of the world, illiteracy is at 27%, with functional illiteracy above 40%.

The more affluent don't object to a flat tax; indeed, it appeals.

So, by all means, educate the affluent readers of this site. :lol:


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', '
')As someone said recently: "The problem with Reagan was that he wanted to roll back the New Deal. The problem with Bush is that he wants to roll back the Age of Enlightenment".


Really? I could use a few serfs, bound to the land. Rolling back the Age of Enlightenment isn't necessarily bad. 8)
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Re: Cornucopians vs Doomers

Unread postby WebHubbleTelescope » Wed 21 Jun 2006, 00:28:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', 'A')t least a progressive tax keeps the pain internal.
Exactly why would we want to keep the pain internal????????


Because my ethical standards do not support the idea of applying a Ponzi scheme to foreign investors and hoping they take the bait. Do we base our continuing economic success on tricking investors?

I have long considered the idea that engaging in a conflict in the Middle East is ridiculous. And this has nothing to do with military might. It has to do with deal-making. Babylonia and Mesopotamia were the birthplaces of bartering and negotiations, with much of it under-handed. If you think the USA has any great skill at this, think again, as the people from the old countries have practiced this for thousands of years and we have done it for a couple of centuries. I suppose we can give it a shot, and go toe-to-toe with them, but in the end they have the oil, after all, and that remains the ultimate negotiating chip.
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Re: Cornucopians vs Doomers

Unread postby rwwff » Wed 21 Jun 2006, 00:33:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WebHubbleTelescope', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rwwff', '
')Never forget, instability is not necessarily bad. A powerful, unstable force, is extremely agile and a bit unpredictable.


Okay, let's get rid of feedback control systems from:


borrowing your list here...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')verall, I suggest you keep thinking.


Nahh, I got this one.
The economy has been intentionally forced into a metastable condition.

I understand that you believe this to be a bad idea. You do have to admit that with just a little inside info or insight one could make an absolute killing in a metastable market. If one were so inclined...
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