[Falconoffury]

Considering peak oil, what part of history will the future look like?

[Anthrobus]

nothing like the above, i would say; maybe something beyond our imagination;

perhaps stone age and high-tech at the same time (the planet is big without oil); perhaps some new ideology will take the whole civilisation under, perhaps some messias will show the right way out of the mess and we will live poor but happy ever after. History will be evolving and changing even post peak.

This question deserves some hard thinking, unfortunately i am pressed to do some hard work now. I hope to come back to this interesting theme.

just edited to add this: What does our time look like in comparison to visions and predictions of the past. According to the recently died author Stanislaw Lem, if you would have predicted the 20th century correctly in 1900, they would have called you a loonie. (my conclusion:) look at the loonies if you want possibly good (and scary) predictions, ...

see you later ...

[venky]

I voted for the 1st option. While I fear that we may be headed for a nasty energy crisis in the coming years and with it all the accompanying economic turmoil; however, I do think we have the technology to replace current energy sources with alternatives and renewables to maintain the essential aspects of the modern way of life, although the current culture of mass consumerism will end one way or another.

Its whether we can muster sufficient political will that will be needed to push through the necessary changes that will be required, that will determine the duration of the transition or turmoil.

[pea-jay]

At this point, I don't think the die has been cast in terms of civilization collapse. It is definately possible, if not probable. But guarenteed it is not. My two futures are the progress and regress visions.

PROGRESS:
Human kind steps back from the brink and actually does make needed sufficient preparations to do with less. Mass conservation and sharing of remaining resources ensures that while demand destruction occurs, it does not result in actual war destruction or wholesale economic destruction. With revamping of food and supply systems to require much less travel, improved vehicular eff and the introduction of non-liquid based transportation (like electric cars-short distances, dual mode transportation networks-longer distances and electric trains) dependence falls. Improved technology reduces travel needs. After 20-40 years of retrofitting the economy to be less dependent on non-renewable resources, reuse all waste streams and look for efficiencies like they were gold, most of the world hangs on. Prospers, probably not as serious economic ramifications ensue from a wholesale transition such as this. But once most things are pretty sustainably run, probably by a combination of solar, wind, geothermal, hydro and breeder nuclear electric power, people will begin to forget our dependence on liquid fuels and facination with the H2 molecule, which by this point may actually be able to be fused under controlled conditions, much as its boosters purported possible one hundred years earlier. All the while, technology and the rest of human civilization continued to evolve in more or less a forward pattern. Hence the term progress.

REGRESS:
This darker scenario probably is the default scenario. In this case we suffer a string of energy triggered economic and social collapses over the next 20-50 years. Unless there is some cataclysmic conflict, I think there wont be a singular hard crash, but more like a series of smaller ones interspersed with periods of stability or even growth. Never the less, society and civilization will fracture and come undone along cultural, geographic, and ethno-religious lines. Many of our great achievements will become but memories while others will be adapted to need less energy to accomplish. Some areas will fall off the map so to speak and others will maintain quite a high standard of living, assuming they arent swamped by refugees. In the end, people living a half century from now, myself hopefully included will be lead simpler lives for sure. Some areas those simple lives will be spent in servitude to others or engaged in never-ending civil wars. Other areas will be peaceful and have developed a robust local economy that can function in the absence of national or global leadership. Most people will live low-tech lives, with limited but still available electrical appliances, communicate via radio or remnants of the internet on aging computers. Most tech will cease to be operable, but the more civilized areas may be able to salvage higher level technology for an indefinate length of time. All ag is however local and far more folks are engaged in it and other primary activities. WHile a lot is forgotten, plenty is remembered so even though hospitals struggle to remain functional, medical practices do not revert back to pre-industrial levels. Many people that dont get seriously sick or injured still survive. By the time mid century rolls around there probably are on the order of 500 to 1000 countries in the world in various stages of regression.

It's a tossup whether human kind ever recovers to try industrialization ever again.

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

Great question, but no idea.

I would say eventually small scale coal and biomass would be the main energy sources (in places where coal can be obtained by hand), don't know what it would most resemble but it will be very different from now thats' for sure, maybe small scale coal age.

Also getting to that place will not be easy, especially when nobody is even thinking about going.

[skeptic]

None of those options, probably.

Certainly the USA will become increasing reliant on coal and nuclear energy in an effort to maintain 'business as usual'. The Rockie Mountain states will be ripped to pieces and poisoned with toxic gloop in an attempt to extract all the remaining 'tight' and 'coal seam ' natural gas.

Beyond that, difficult to say. the future of science and technology is inherrently unpredictable. In the late ninteenth century the UK govt was very worried about the impact of increasing traffic on the economy of London. A govt sponsored enquiry came to the conclusion that the nations capital would grind to a standstill due to the depth of horseshit anticipated to be dumped daily on the roads due to ever increasing traffic density.

Of course nobody foresaw the development of the internal combustion engine which disposed of that little problem.

God knows what will happen in Europe. Were already up shit creek because of declining natural gas supply. Thinks got too tight for comfort in the UK this last winter, and the same or worse is expected this coming winter.

[Doly]

I don't think the future is going to look anything like the past. And it will also depend on the place.

In Europe, I expect roads to be mostly empty of cars, plenty of bikes, roughly same amount of buses and lorries, maybe some taxis but of the Cuban variety (more like minibuses that many people use at the same time and drop people at different places). Renewables and nuclear will be common. The standard of living of most people will have dropped, but the average person won't lack any basic necessities. The communication infrastructure will be fully functioning. I also expect more people growing vegetables, not for staple food, but for little luxuries that may be too expensive to buy in shops.

North America will be similar, but poorer and with more crime. More people will lack basic necessities, not because they can't be provided in principle, but because nobody is willing to help them. I wouldn't be too surprised if the general standard of living lowers to that of South America (not current South America, but post PO South America).

South America, China, India, and Russia will be poorer than Europe (like they are now), but I expect them to organise reasonably well the resources they have, and to cooperate between them. I don't expect any breakdown of society in those areas, but a lot of hard work and doing with little.

Japan is a big question mark for me. My guess is that they will pull through, but I don't know at what cost. The big problem is feeding all those people when they have to import so much food. I wouldn't be surprised if they started some impressive marine farms. I also expect them to become quite isolationist.

The Middle East will remain a place will giant imbalances between the rich and the poor. Muslim fundamentalism will be rampant. Wars will be a permanent feature.

Africa will be a disaster zone. If you think it's a disaster zone now, just wait. It will make hell look like a cosy place.

Australia and New Zealand will probably be at a level similar to Europe, but probably a simpler kind of life. More farmers, less technology, less struggle to make ends meet.

Anyway, those are my guesses. Feel free to correct me.

[MacG]

Frustrating to confess, but it's simply impossible to predict.

I mean, look, how many managed to predict TODAYS societies fifty years ago? The ways we live, work, travel and arrange our families? The role of governments? The stuff like the Internet? I dare to say: Nobody.

How many managed to predict the rise of Asia just 15 years ago? How many managed to predict the fall of the Soviet Empire just one year before the fall?

I have no hope of successfully predicting anything about the future, but I think it IS prudent to have some fallbacks at home, like warm clothes, some spare food and means to cook it if the infrastructure blips for a day or three. I mean, look, big passenger ships have lifeboats, although most of them are never used.

[Novus]

I picked the last option as a way of saying none of the above. Advances in virtural reality might somehow make it come true so you never know for sure.

Most likely outcome I see is another great depression with WWII levels of rationing followed by even more severe WWI levels of rationing. Think meatless Mondays, wheatless Wednesdays, and foodless Fridays with zero gas ration. I also see a lot of violence, war, and death combined with totolitarianism, loss of freedoms, and forced labor. If you think America had to sacrifice a lot in WWII you should see what the Russians had to sacrafice in their war efforts. I think that is more a kin to what we are in for.

[Falconoffury]

The last option is a joke option. I try to include at least one in every poll.

[holmes]

USA.
lets see persons per square mile in 2000 was 79.6 really was probably double that so lets say 150.
2006 popualtion is more near 500 million.
with current mentally deranged culture in 20 years population will be near 1 billion.
lets just say the aesthetics are not going to be there. Hehe.
Its called stripped to the bone.
the rest you be the judge.
Ps: we might however get a negative pop flow when our economy blows chunks and all the mexicans go back south.

[Anthrobus]

prospects for the future

I think, pe-jay's and doly's scenarios point in some probable directions. Of course, its extremly hard to imagine changes of our lifestyle in the future, or the disappearance of luxuries we have got used to. Think of the old sketches of balloons with boats as gondolas, probably supposed to steer with their rudders in the air. Or how early sifi-fantasies mirror the age they were created. You can even roughly tell from the peoples hairstyles the time of the film's making.

Nevertheless, i will try to lay down some thougts about our prospects, (maybe somewhat incoherent), mainly from the perspective of my country

Obviously, we often enjoy to hike or travel in our leisure-time in a simpler style than we actually live (walk by foot, sleep in a bunkhouse, carry a heavy sack, use the outhouse ...). We call it fun and have the feeling of temporarily being relieved of some burden.
On the other hand either and to the contrary, a simple and rural life may not at all be romantic. Not so long ago, in my country people (kids) ran around in shoes made of wood in winter, little kids died by the scores of maladies, which i was not unhappy to get because i had not go to school and could play all day.
When i was a kid, the garbage was just dumped into the next landfill and set on fire. Today, a good percentage or our refuse is going to be collected seperate and recycled. It has become quite normal. So, some habits will continue to change with peak oil and the necessity of the changes will not be put into question. Life will mostly continue to be regarded as normal.

Maybe in several years, products, waste and raw materials will circulate within small areas (counties) while only the deficits will be covered by trading. Luxuries will become even more luxurious and rare, probably only the rich will be able to pay for and use goods, that have to travel far. Maybe the society will split in a mass of poorer people and a minority of rich (no more broad and wealthy middle class) who still do travel and enjoy pleasures as the wealthy do today. The lacking of masses of imported goods may lead to a phenomenon, already known in germany, when the country was suffering a blockade during the wars. Everything had to become “Ersatz”. The use of raw materials was controlled by the state. Gasoline was made out of coal, tissue of nettles, people had to eat turnips in winter, sawdust was baked in the bread, etc.

Yet the continuously lowered standard of living of the majority of people will change the world of economics fundamentally. No more mass consumer markets mean lesser efforts and means for R&D. So in a lot of areas, technological advancement may come to a standstill. Contrary to sectors of “state interest”: defense, developing means for a sustainable communities, police.
I started to think this through in a moderate way, but at this point, lots of tings suddenly seem to become unsustainable rather sooner than later. International companies may break up into their local divisions; Air travel may be severely reduced. Sea transport ist usually very cheap and big ships can run on very heavy oil, but i imagine the seaways becoming more dangerous due to failed states and piracy (Imagine some fundamentalists blocking the suez canal). Lots of people with white collar jobs will have to change to jobs like collecting recyclable stuff from the conveyor belt or plucking weeds or at least overlook the poor wretches who do this. The few wealthy will provoke a lot of envy and will possibly have to retreat in safe areas, emploing lots of security forces.

Where this all will lead further down the timeline, that means, the prospects for the civilisation itself, i have no idea. Surely not to cities on the mars or the moon.

Of course, in every country and region, the effects will be different. Generally, there may be less communication between distant countries, there may extremely different lifestyles coexist. Living will mostly take place in your hometown. (That was normal here for centuries, nearly everyone belonged to a farm). Some technology is made up mostly of knowlede and thus may be maintained or even advanced (breeding, building, crafts). Other technologies rely heavily on a network of other technologies (like building a particle collider ring or a complex vehicle) and will eventually cease to be pursued.
The country which succeeds to keep up its technological and industrial basis seem so be in an enormous advantage over countries that plunge back into some stage of primitive farming. So the states will continue their efforts to keep up schools and universities, probably for an elite.

Developments to watch out for:
creation of agencies for the distribution of certain goods (=rationing imminent)
People and Supermarkets changing to homegrown / made products (goods from overseas no longer massivly cheaper)
creation of agencies to supply work to the poor (labour camps / houses)
Big investors buying rural land, woods or investing in farming
Money but no goods to buy
Unusally long or frequent power cuts or shortages
“Optimisations” in infrastructures announced (=thinned out)
appearence of people and communites trying to live totally independent (from goods, state)
Nato declaring “ability to figth at 8 fronts simultainously” a strategy fit for the 21th century
The US imposing mandatory use of renewables whereever possible (=TSHTF)

Thats just a rough scetch of my thoughts which i think over when i lay awake. It is easy to thing the extreme possibilities, but difficult to identify the point, at which the new developments, the business as usual and new thinking get into balance.

thanks for reading, i hope, this discussion will continue in this or another thread.