[PrairieMule]

As I start the final third section of Kunstler's Long Emergency I have been pondering the subject of logistics pre hard prash or a post soft crash. Will the mail still run? If for some example in the next five years the US demand goes up to say 25 million barrels per day and we are cut to 18 million barrels per day, would the US mail still operate on some degree? If so perhaps instead of folks running to the mall to buy clothes or blockbuster to get the newest relase they are both completely replaced by LLBean and Netflix. Very similar to what Sear's and Roebucks and Ambercrombie and Fitch use to be 100 years ago. It's often said we should invest in gold and silver as smart in a post crash scenario. Perhaps a safe paper investment would be specific 401K funds or stock in direct mail retailing in companies like Cabela's, Victoria's Secret, Gamefly, and so on. Not sure of the hard data of energy consumption to mail a dvd but it has to be less than what it would cost to stock it a retail energy hog like Wal-mart. It also has more risk than gold but might be a safer longshot than retirement funds or stocks in Coca-Cola and Walmart.

Freezed Dry Chicken Soup for the Doomer's Soul.

[peaker_2005]

The crux of the current system is the Just-in-Time delivery system, and that's the main issue. Many goods can be preserved, and it's a non-issue for non-perishables such as a DVD (as in, as long as it gets there...).

Perishables however will need to be more local.

Stores barely have a safety stock these days. When the crash does happen, it'll take DAYS, not weeks for food supplies to become an issue. First priority needs to be rebuilding the railways (whether light or otherwise), which will help distribution. Thankfully they're electrified already here in Sydney, so that eliminates one problem. Crowding IS going to be a major issue here though (I foresee Sydney hiring pushers within the next few years)...

[PrairieMule]

Thats is for the most part how I see Peakoil, a interruption in in the just-in-time inventory. From a logistical point, non-perishables could still have a outlet via online shopping or catalogs. Anything you could find at a Wal-Mart from cosmetics, a ipod, to a new Mossberg shotgun can theoreticly be shipped direct mail with reduced energy but adaptive economy. It may not be as fast but it can still exist.

[Atlantean_Relic]

I don't see why online stores still couldn't run(assuming we can keep the lights on.) What would make it much differnt from the sears catalogs of old?

[AmericanEmpire]

In the long run we are gonna be going back to something more like the Pony Express assuming we will have any mail at all.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Atlantean_Relic', 'I') don't see why online stores still couldn't run(assuming we can keep the lights on.) What would make it much differnt from the sears catalogs of old?

[PrairieMule]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Atlantean_Relic', 'I') don't see why online stores still couldn't run(assuming we can keep the lights on.) What would make it much differnt from the sears catalogs of old?

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrairieMule', '
')Mmmmm, but what if that book could be combined other books and burned on a disc then sent snail mail? Even in with less selection and longer time it still could be possible for a while if we have soft crash. Not saying absolutely true-just possible..

[PrairieMule]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrairieMule', '
')Mmmmm, but what if that book could be combined other books and burned on a disc then sent snail mail? Even in with less selection and longer time it still could be possible for a while if we have soft crash. Not saying absolutely true-just possible..

[pea-jay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')tores barely have a safety stock these days. When the crash does happen, it'll take DAYS, not weeks for food supplies to become an issue

[emersonbiggins]

Speaking of wasteful, the irony was not lost on me growing up 4 miles from both the Best Buy and Circuit City southern US distribution centers, but still needing to drive 180-200 miles roundtrip to buy something from either store.

That, my friends, is wasteful (in terms of fuel).

[gnm]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', 'B')etter yet, convert the book to PDF format, and let people download it. The delivery costs, along with materials costs, become trivial. Existing books could be scanned - and there's no reason a royalty payment couldn't be sent to appropriate parties.

This works well for information. Getting a case of MREs, a shirt, or a packet of seeds goes back to the transportation costs, though.