[PenultimateManStanding]

I went to watch my daughter's swim meet today and was chatting with her about the time I watched Mike Stamm win the 200 meter backstroke at the CIF county swimming finals. I got a second place medal in butterfly that day, but watching Stamm was the real highlight. He was the national record holder at that time and he was only a high school senior. He later went on to get the international record and win gold at the '72 Olympics swimming the 400 medley relay with none other than Mark Spitz on his team. For those of you who know about this kind of thing, Spitz' performance was probably the greatest feat in swimming history, winning 7 gold medals. Now here is the point about this that I want to make: I checked out current swimming records and they are mostly from the last few years. Mike Stamm's backstroke record was broken long ago. But even if we weren't looking at all these serious energy problems, at some point, records would stop being broken. It's obvious: the records could not keep being broken because there are limits to how fast a human being can swim or run or throw a discus or javelin. Would it not stand to reason that there would be a time when records lasted longer and longer and very rarely got broken? We could even find, then, that there would be a Peak Record Year after which fewer and fewer records get broken.

[mekrob]

Think again about the bell (Hubbert) curve. But instead of time vs production, do performance vs percent. As you increase the performance, the percent of people able to reach that level decreases dramatically. So naturally, there will be a 'peak' in which records are broken, unless you have a forever growing (an extremely fast) population that can continue so, which it can't.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', ' ')So naturally, there will be a 'peak' in which records are broken, unless you have a forever growing (an extremely fast) population that can continue so, which it can't.

[Vexed]

When records can no longer be broken I guess the rules will just change.

The three point line is a relatively recent addition to basketball. As is the urging of refs to call more fouls, and allow less contact. The goal of these rule changes was to increase scoring, which increases the chances that scoring records will be challenged.

I can see the future headlines now, after rims have been lowered to 9 ft, a 5 point line is introduced, and a 5th quarter is added.

"Incredible! Wilt's Record Falls! Michael Jordan III scores 190 in 310-267 win!"

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Vexed', '
')"Incredible! Wilt's Record Falls! Michael Jordan III scores 190 in 310-267 win!"

[Vexed]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Vexed', '
')"Incredible! Wilt's Record Falls! Michael Jordan III scores 190 in 310-267 win!"

[Novus]

Athletic records will never peak because there are always some people with near super human powers like David Blaine or this four year old who ran a 65km super marathon. If you have even seen riplies Beleive it or not you know there are a lot freaks in this world who can do amazing things. In the land of post peak if civilization collapses these people may inheirit the earth. They are stonger, faster, and more adaptable than your average industrial ape. For homo sapiens evolution has stoped; however, PO related stress may be what restarts it.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'A')thletic records will never peak because ...

[Vexed]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'A')thletic records will never peak because ...

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Vexed', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'A')thletic records will never peak because ...

[Vexed]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Vexed', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'A')thletic records will never peak because ...

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Vexed', '
')
Hi PMS,

What are we discussing, nonsense or reality?

[Atlantean_Relic]

But at what point the the game change so much that the records are useless?? When the housecat evolves into a puma does it mouser record follow?

[Vexed]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Vexed', '
')
Hi PMS,

What are we discussing, nonsense or reality?

[pea-jay]

Humans haven't stopped evolving. If anything it is increasing, thanks to our burgeoning population (more reproduction means more possibilities for genetic "goofs" that prove beneficial in today's world). This is before you consider the role of better health practices and our monkeying around with the genetic code itself. If we weren't facing a civilization altering energy crisis there really isn't an end point to human "improvements" Between genetic engineering and nanotechnology we have some fundementally powerful (and dangerous) tools at our disposal.

Look up Joel Garreau's recent book called Radical Evolution for more on this and his future "vision" of the future of human kind.

If we manage to solve the energy dilemna or at least keep technological research flowing, some or all of this may still happen. When we start changing our genetic code to improve our capabilities, I fully expect sporting records to fall. Same for bionics.

Not saying this will happen but I am not discounting it's occurence either.

[Novus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'A')thletic records will never peak because ...

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', '
')Your logic is a Strawman falacy PMS. Google how logorithims work aproaching zero or Zeno's Paradox. The records broken may be by smaller and smaller amounts but there will never come a point where no athletic record can be broken.

[PenultimateManStanding]

I'm going on the "record" here and predicting that Peak Records will be Thanksgiving Day, 2006.

[PrairieMule]

I see breaking records happening in the future. With the help of Mother's little Helpers, better living through chemistry, steroids, suppliments. We accepted Marc Macguire's record ,maybe attitudes will change in the future. I think one day the 4 minute mile for example will be broken with the right combination of steroids(strenght and speed), vicadin(pain threshold) , a small lightweight tank of 100% oxygen(lung stamina). To do that a runner would have to maintain a top speed of 15mph which is just a little faster than a wasp.

Perhaps if we set up relays of African Killer Bees every hundred yards to help the runner maintain his speed. Then of course he could fall over and die a hero just as Pheidippes did from the greek Battle of Marathon.

[PenultimateManStanding]

Novus, I saw your remark in the current event forum: The only thing that separates the current calm of civilization from a shitstorm breaking out tomorrow is Ignorance. Has it ever crossed your mind that there could be a real correlation between the ongoing athletic conquests of ever faster and better results and the robustness of the steroid civilization built on fossil fuels? They go hand-in-hand, IMO. (prairiemule, loved the notion of using killer bees to get ever faster times! )