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Family members in the oil business not worried

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Family members in the oil business not worried

Unread postby shakespear1 » Thu 13 Apr 2006, 13:57:32

Many of my friends USED TO believe that PO was not an issue. Many are turning around especially those who are geologists.
Men argue, nature acts !
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Re: Family members in the oil business not worried

Unread postby emailking » Thu 13 Apr 2006, 14:07:37

I feel for you turtleT. My solution to living on a graduate student's salary was to stay close to home and live with my parents. Most of my fellow students were constantly worried about money and debt, and several even had trouble getting the school to pay up! I am glad I got out of that mess. They were starting to threaten my job due to a Teaching Assistant surplus.
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Re: Family members in the oil business not worried

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 13 Apr 2006, 14:54:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')hey are oil distributors and own MULTIPLE gas stations ( Citgo)


I think that is likely to explain it.....the downstream perspective would be....hey every week the petrol shows up in the volume I ordered so there must be lots of it. I would suspect they haven't a clue of the origin of oil, where and how it is found, how it is produced etc. ...they are only concerned with the product and whether or not they are able to purchase enough several months out and pass the increasing costs onto the consumer.

I don't know any geologist who is over 40 and has been working for more than a decade who is not intimately aware that 1. it is very difficult to find additonal reserves and 2. it can't be a bottomless jar.
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Re: Family members in the oil business not worried

Unread postby JustinFrankl » Thu 13 Apr 2006, 16:01:44

The chuckling and laughing to me are signs that they aren't quite sure themselves, or that they have disregarded the entire concept.

The peaking of oil is a serious concept with serious ramifications. That someone blithely suggest that there's nothing to worry about or that "Oompa-Loompa-Land is literally swimming in a sea of oil" suggests ignorance and naivete.

I'm sorry to say but it doesn't sound like your relatives know what they're talking about and have no special, secret information about this. They are riding the wave and now is when it's highest. The view from up there must be spectacular and they must feel like royalty, almost like god's chosen, and now they have a long, long way to fall.
"We have seen the enemy, and he is us." -- Walt Kelly
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Re: Family members in the oil business not worried

Unread postby coyote » Thu 13 Apr 2006, 20:07:00

Remember Hubbert himself was given the same treatment, roundly, by the entire industry and pretty much everybody else. People didn't take him seriously until he was proven correct by time. Now there's a much larger body of evidence, but still I think we're likely to see the same reaction from many people. Not trying to be overly confident, these folks probably know more than I do about the industry as a whole. But Peak Oil -- well, after all the research I've done over the past year, they'd have to explain to me exactly why it's not a problem.

I'd actually be pretty thrilled if they succeeded.
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Re: Family members in the oil business not worried

Unread postby Zardoz » Thu 13 Apr 2006, 20:45:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roy', 'S')preading the word serves to alienate friends and loved ones almost without exception...


I keep seeing comments like this on this forum, but my experience continues to be the exact opposite.

Folks, I have not been brushed off, laughed at, or disbelieved by so much as one individual I've talked to about this. Everybody immediately gets it, and most remark that they're not surprised.

Maybe it's the way I present it, starting off very early in the conversation with the fantastic 84,000,000-barrel-a-day consumption figure. That pretty much turns on the lights, sounds the alarm, and gets the red flags waving in the minds of everybody I talk to.

An example is a very well-informed and knowledgeable Harvard faculty member who, when I asked him what he thought the global daily consumption figure was, responded: "A lot. What is it now? 15 or 20 million barrels a day?"

He turned white when I gave him the 84 figure. It took him a while to process it.

I then go into the spurious OPEC reserve figures, and move to the fact that there is nobody on this planet who knows exactly how much good-quality, easily-recoverable oil is actually there, and my job is finished. They're convinced.

I usually then just drop ominous hints of what life will be like with scarce, very-expensive petroleum products, and they figure out the rest.

How are you people presenting this? Are you walking up, grabbing them by the lapels and shaking them while you scream "We're all fucked!!!"

Seems to me like you must be.
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Re: Family members in the oil business not worried

Unread postby Roy » Thu 13 Apr 2006, 21:06:42

I guess I don't know the number of open-minded independent thinkers that you do.

The most common responses I get are (not necessarily in order)

1. they said that in the 70's
2. they'll think of something (technofix energy fairy stuff)
3. so what, there's nothing we can do about it anyway
4. too negative-no time to read etc (favorite of fellow gen x'ers)
5. there's plenty of oil here in America that we deliberately didn't drill (this from former oil workers in Louisiana that I worked with)

Luckily for me my wife got it. 8^)

And you're right, the "we're screwed" approach is ineffective.

I should have qualified that line you quoted by leading the sentence with "In my experience".

No offense intended.

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Re: Family members in the oil business not worried

Unread postby coyote » Thu 13 Apr 2006, 21:42:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'F')olks, I have not been brushed off, laughed at, or disbelieved by so much as one individual I've talked to about this. Everybody immediately gets it, and most remark that they're not surprised.

You must be surrounded by a remarkable class of people, or else you're very persuasive. I've only been able to get *2* people to even consider the subject at all, and I am pretty careful to broach the subject mildly. A month ago I very casually mentioned natural gas depletion in the presence of a few co-workers, and was immediately and roundly pooh-poohed. (These are not people with whom I've discussed the subject before.)

Incidentally, in what part of the country do you live? Sounds like it might be a good place to move to...
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Re: Family members in the oil business not worried

Unread postby Zardoz » Fri 14 Apr 2006, 23:07:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', '.')..Incidentally, in what part of the country do you live?...


Southern California, where we're burning up petroleum products at a rate unmatched by anybody on this planet.

Maybe that's it. Nobody who lives here can deny what's going on. It's painfully obvious to anybody who has a semi-functional brain that we're using the stuff up like there really is no tomorrow. It's crazy.

Next time you people broach the subject to somebody new, try my method of stealthily opening their eyes to that 84 millon barrels a day figure. Then ease into how the global oil industry has been overstating reserves for decades, and see if lights start coming on.
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Re: Family members in the oil business not worried

Unread postby coyote » Sun 16 Apr 2006, 21:01:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'N')ext time you people broach the subject to somebody new, try my method of stealthily opening their eyes to that 84 millon barrels a day figure. Then ease into how the global oil industry has been overstating reserves for decades, and see if lights start coming on.

Good idea, I'll try it that way... you saying that reminded me that I've gotten similar results by mentioning the 1,000 barrels per second thing. Unfortunately, mostly from my students... and I can't take the conversation with them any further than that. Can't tell them what I think of the future of the economy, when I'm trying to teach them advertising and design...

:roll:
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