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High oil prices hampering development

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High oil prices hampering development

Unread postby smiley » Sun 09 Apr 2006, 14:48:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')oaring commodity and raw material prices are increasing the cost of oil and gas projects by up to three times, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ministers said Friday.

Although current high oil prices may be helping to drive much-needed crude investment, the rising cost of construction projects could curtail new energy production development, they warn

http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=31089

If this is true it also shows a serious flaw in the paradigm that higher oil prices will spur new development. Models from the EIA, DOE, IEA etc all are based on the presumption that development is positively connected to the oil price and they do not incorporate the connection between oil and other commodities.

Since commodity prices are largely driven by energy costs one could say that higher oil prices, lead to higher commodity prices, lead to higher development costs, lead to lower oil production, lead to.... higher oil prices. Not pretty.

I am hesitant to take anything coming from OPEC from granted. They aren't exactly the most reliable source of information around.

It would be interesting to get an idea of the linkage between commodity prices and oil prices and see how that taps into oil development.
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Re: High oil prices hampering development

Unread postby ohanian » Sun 09 Apr 2006, 17:54:58

Positive Feedback

High oil prices ----> High commodity prices, High raw material prices

High commodity prices ----> High oil and gas project costs
High raw material prices ----> High oil and gas project costs

High oil and gas project costs -----> High oil prices


nothing really matters
nothing matters at all
and the needle returns to the start of the song
and we'll sing along like before
and peakoil begins tomorrow
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Re: High oil prices hampering development

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Mon 10 Apr 2006, 16:04:49

This is right in line with the "Net Oil" concept thread started by Novus. Potentially much bigger prblems much sooner due to it.
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Re: High oil prices hampering development

Unread postby Kingcoal » Mon 10 Apr 2006, 16:23:40

This is peak oil as described by Simmons. It's here now.
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Re: High oil prices hampering development

Unread postby mekrob » Mon 10 Apr 2006, 16:49:33

Hahahahaha. I wanna hear the economists squirm their way outta this little bugger.

But to analyze what OPEC said let's look back at it:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')oaring commodity and raw material prices are increasing the cost of oil and gas projects by up to three times, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ministers said Friday.

Although current high oil prices may be helping to drive much-needed crude investment, the rising cost of construction projects could curtail new energy production development, they warn


Ok, so OPEC, which is the entity that makes billions upon billions of dollars every year in shear profit with extremely little work, has said that they might not be able to develop new (needed) sources in the future.

Now, there are only two options I see. One of them is not financially based. There is absolutely no way that they can have a hard time investing in new fields given their power and wealth.

Option 1) They simply want to have an excuse so that they won't have to pump out as much as the world wants, pushing prices higher and thus the ceiling of their 50,000,000 sq m palaces.

Option 2) They simply want to have an excuse so that they won't have to damage their fields any further by massive exploitation and risk massive collapsing in their oil fields and to shift the blame when demand overtakes supply and supply begins to decrease in a few short years.

Both options seem pretty likely, but Option 2 just seems more realistic. These guys need no more money and if they wanted a little more, they could always squeeze it from the little guy or raise the price a few pennies thus drawing millions more for themselves each year.
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Re: High oil prices hampering development

Unread postby grillzilla » Mon 10 Apr 2006, 20:24:49

Option 3) they want the consuming countries to come up with a few billion dollars to help pay for the developments. "Or Else" is the unspoken message.

They have already floated the notion of a "guaranteed" market, but it didn't get any love.
The difference between Genius and Stupidity is that Genius has its limits.
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Re: High oil prices hampering development

Unread postby Novus » Mon 10 Apr 2006, 23:10:02

I could not have had better timing with my Net Oil concept. Before, articles like this just didn't make much sence or were just seen as simple problems associated with declining production. Now everywhere I look I see the Net Oil reality of decling EROEI. Unconventional demand is eating up ever larger portions of worlds oil suppy. I was blind but now I can see, yet I do not like the sight I now behold. The world is facing cliff in the near future. I think the world will be a very desparate place by as soon as 2010.

I curently reading Joseph Tainter's Collapse of Complex Societies. He basically says every complex society that ever collapsed was destroyed by declining EROEI. Very scarey stuff. Acording to Tainter an EROEI induced collapse happens extreamly quickly...A decade or two at most. I think the oil age about to come to an abrupt end.
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Re: High oil prices hampering development

Unread postby emailking » Mon 10 Apr 2006, 23:13:17

Is that book just an analysis of how socities have collapsed over time or is he trying to demonstrate how ours will collapse?

BTW: I've convinced my brother about peak oil and the like in the last few months (but he says alternatives will come in as needed via the market). I sent him your post and he called it nonsense. I tried to explain it an he laughed, made fun of the terminology, etc.

We've got a long way to go.
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Re: High oil prices hampering development

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 11 Apr 2006, 02:38:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'U')nconventional demand is eating up ever larger portions of worlds oil suppy. I was blind but now I can see, yet I do not like the sight I now behold. The world is facing cliff in the near future. I think the world will be a very desparate place by as soon as 2010.


Not to mention the increased production of hydrogen from NG to hydrotreat and upgrade heavy oil and bitumen to usable fractured products.
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Re: High oil prices hampering development

Unread postby Raxozanne » Tue 11 Apr 2006, 02:52:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', '
')I curently reading Joseph Tainter's Collapse of Complex Societies. He basically says every complex society that ever collapsed was destroyed by declining EROEI. Very scarey stuff. Acording to Tainter an EROEI induced collapse happens extreamly quickly...A decade or two at most. I think the oil age about to come to an abrupt end.


Hehe I'm reading Tainters Collapse of Complex Societies at the moment aswell! I have just started chapter 4 where he is making it quite clear that sociopolitical complexity is inexorably linked to 'energy flow' and that one cannot change without changing the other. I took this to mean that if the energy level available to a society declines then complexity must also drop. I must say that I had read before where he said that societies use up the easy to reach sources of energy first and then are forced to move on the the harder to extract bits but I never fully realised the implications of what this meant until you brought that 'net oil' to my eyes and then someone posted that very disturbing chart from the oil drum.
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Re: High oil prices hampering development

Unread postby miraculix » Tue 11 Apr 2006, 18:28:59

@emailking

Tainter makes some extrapolation as far as our own society is concerned, the main thrust is the study of ancient societies of varying degrees of compelxity

His postulate is, that as return on investement in COMPLEXITY deminishes, society will degrade its level of complexity as a response

Energy can be a factor for exarcabation

makes good reading!
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Re: High oil prices hampering development

Unread postby abelardlindsay » Sun 16 Apr 2006, 00:56:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('miraculix', '@')emailking

Tainter makes some extrapolation as far as our own society is concerned, the main thrust is the study of ancient societies of varying degrees of compelxity

His postulate is, that as return on investement in COMPLEXITY deminishes, society will degrade its level of complexity as a response

Energy can be a factor for exarcabation

makes good reading!


I read Tainter a few years back. One of the interesting point he makes though is that what kills societies is responding to a crisis with the same strategies that got them there, except more so. So the Romans faced with higher costs of running the overextended empire continuously raised taxes , increased social welfare and inflation and continued to tighten the screws on the population. The Mayans kept building bigger and bigger temples to impress their neighbors who were encroaching because of population and environmental pressures. So on and so forth until the method they were using to resolve their crisis got to the point of being negative EROEI and everybody said screw it and the whole thing collapsed. These things end with depression, disillusion and mass starvation and population decline, not with revolutions. Of course once the barbarians see the decline they all come rushing in to pillage, exploiting the new power differential and finishing the old civilization off. He mentions that the Eastern Roman empire (byzantium) was able to radically reduce its complexity and survive another 1000 years before collapsing. That's the longest lived empire since the Egyptians. It is the only example that Tainter was able to find in all of history of a civilization willfully reducing complexity.

Of course western civilization could have collapsed many times but we always saved ourselves with technology. Tainter talks about how the British after deforesting Britian, had to resort to coal for heating. Coal was much more difficult to get at and they had to travel deep into mines to do it where before it was easy to chop down trees. So diminishing EROEI. While trying to figure out how to pump out the mines they invented the steam engine which led more or less to the industrial revolution and kept western civilization from collapsing. Same goes for the discovery of the new world, etc.

The big question now is is can the west pull a rabbit out of its hat again as it has done so many times before? Willfully radically reducing complexity is not going to happen. From what I read of the Byzantium reform It would be like the Libertarian party getting elected to all three branches of government and proceeding to dismantle the federal government down to the parameters of the origional constitution. For instance, the eastern roman empire(Byzantium) got rid of the entire government beauracracy and merged all local administrative duties with the military and forced all land owners to become soldiers. They also coverted all their currency to gold and got completly rid of the inflationary roman money.
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