[Sys1]

We back to 60$/barrel after beeing something like 2 weeks ago at almost 70. We here know that price volatility can be linked to peak oil, but i admit that every time oil prices drop, my interest to energy crisis drop at the same scale, making me even think that the crisis is fading away to get back in many years, if not decades.

My point is, as i'm finally just human, many people could think just like me. The politics, economists and... investitors !
Imagine how difficult it is for a company not knowing about the peak oil to behave ! If you are a car constructor, you want to be sure that oil prices will go soon to the roof before investing in electric motor research. If oil prices collapse while you spend billions in something new, all this money is (regarding to you and shareholders) lost. So... you just wait to be sure.

This is imo what's happening now. Oil prices are so volatile that nobody knows what to do : must we invest in renewable? In SUV? In suburbia? In nuclear plants?
Instead of preparing right now, we just loosing all opportunities to ease the crisis. Capitalism is paralized.

{Title slightly modified to increase visibility: Jack}

[AirlinePilot]

Personally I think the price is being manipulated somehow. I'm not smart enough to figure it out though. Inventory news was good today so that had a bit to do with the drop in crude last day or so, but overall I fail to see how the price can stay down for any length of time. Barring a crisis it may be able to stabilise, but the reality will be very ugly once the short term speculators can actually SEE that we have some big problems coming.

Someday very soon it is going to become painfully evident that all these moves up and down are just a sideshow to the main event. Its going to be very ugly, its going to happen very fast, and it will be unprecedented. Thats my doomer prediction. The longer we attempt to continue with business as usual in a not so usual world, the harder we are going to fall. The longer we try to deny the problem and stretch out the normality of the markets, the uglier the crash is going to be on the other side.

[dissimulo]

I don't think it is manipulation. Keep in mind that PO is not really common knowledge. Oil traders are looking to make a buck and that is more likely when supplies are tight. With building stockpiles, there is not a supply problem in the immediate future, so the prices have declined.

The oil price will go up again soon enough. Enjoy it while it lasts.

[InformedEJ]

Dissimulo you say it is not a minipulation, but i disagree. You are correct that PO in not common knowledge and we all know that oil traders are looking for the fast buck. I think however that all the world is peaking or has peaked already. The price of a barrel of oil is $58.05 as of 1446 pacific standard time and has been low for a few days, but gas prices have remained high. I think that people that know about PO, primararly those who are making money in the business, bring the price of Oil down when fears of shortage are near just to take the edge off. After bush's speach saying, "the USA is addicted to OIL." Amazingly the price of oil started to go down, what a cawinkadink. The general public which knows nothing of PO hears on CNN that the price of Oil is going down, they relax and say we are getting better. One man's opinion

[Novus]

The Bush has spoken. The addiction will be solved. That is what the American people are being told by the highest levels of government. Why wouldn't an ignorant public believe him. That is why oil is going down. Few have any idea about geology involved that will soon be shutting the world economy down.

[Micki]

Well isn't it the governments job to resolve the problems so the people can go doing their 9-5 , telly and shopping??
I don't even know if I am being ironic any longer... I really thought govenments would have started talking more about PO by now but nope.

Regarding oil trading also bear in mind that a lot of the traders are leveraged. So when prices start moving down they close out long positions no matter what they think the fundamentals is.
That is also why we will see more volatility in price. The traders know that supply is scarce and will wait for price to settle and then jump onboard quickly as hell when it seems to be moving up again.

I think we may see something similar happening in gold, silver and other commodities with good fundamentals.

[OilTrader]

Oil has made a large move down, for sure.

However, it is normal seasonal behaviour for oil to bottom at this time in the year. See the following seasonal oil chart:

www.spectrumcommodities.com/education/c ... ts/cl.html

Also, the yield curve (and other things) are predicting a possible recession in our not too distant future. If that occurs, that would put pressure on oil prices. That could happen ahead of the recession as the markets are forward looking. Of course, if geopolitical events were to produce less supply than the recession's demand destruction prices could remain high.

Bull markets in any instrument are known to have the strongest corrections. Markets are all about oscillations. And this market has peak oil on its side and it still is going to very volatile on the up and down side

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'P')ersonally I think the price is being manipulated somehow. I'm not smart enough to figure it out though.

[grabby]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'W')e back to 60$/barrel after beeing something like 2 weeks ago at almost 70. We here know that price volatility can be linked to peak oil, but i admit that every time oil prices drop, [/color]

[elroy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')owever, it is normal seasonal behaviour for oil to bottom at this time in the year.

[aahala]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'W')e back to 60$/barrel after beeing something like 2 weeks ago at almost 70. We here know that price volatility can be linked to peak oil, but i admit that every time oil prices drop, my interest to energy crisis drop at the same scale, making me even think that the crisis is fading away to get back in many years, if not decades.

[mididoctors]

instability in the market does not strike me as a good thing...

moreover a large amount of fishing by major investment voices to help this speculative roller coster is just another layer of misinformation the market doesn't need

a road map of were we are going is lacking

volatility bothers me more in some ways than a constant up pressure on prices

doomeroscity +0.2 to 2.2

Boris
London

[mididoctors]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'P')ersonally I think the price is being manipulated somehow. I'm not smart enough to figure it out though.

[MfromAmsterdam]

Hello Micki from Australia! If you're still wondering why governments aren't doing anything...well maybe they do.

Check this site: http://www.petrocollapse.org/

and listen to the two speeches of M Ruppert. He'll tell you that plans are already being executed. You're just not part of it.

The best,

Michel

[oilfreeandhappy]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MfromAmsterdam', 'H')ello Micki from Australia! If you're still wondering why governments aren't doing anything...well maybe they do.

Check this site: http://www.petrocollapse.org/

and listen to the two speeches of M Ruppert. He'll tell you that plans are already being executed. You're just not part of it.

The best,

Michel

[Typhoon]

So, will the price of oil go up or down next week? It's been really strong this week, although it looks like the May contract has encountered resistance just above $68. I think that the bullish momentum could easily be sustained if we get another ominous inventory report next week. On the other hand, we could easily see a correction.

One interesting thing to contemplate is the Nigerian violence. Crude oil futures declined today on speculation that some of the production will start up again shortly, but I don't think it's realistic to assume that will happen.

Shifting my focus from the short term to the medium term, I don't really see anything stopping oil from getting to $80 per barrel. It seems like gasoline will reach the $3.25-$3.50 per gallon range, and it obviously could spike higher if a major hurricane hits the Gulf Coast.

Next week, the price of oil will...
Poll ended at 07 May 2006, 18:23
Break $70 43% [ 19 ]
Rally, but won't break $70 27% [ 12 ]
Stay about the same 23% [ 10 ]
Fall slightly 7% [ 3 ]
Fall sharply 0% [ 0 ]

Total votes : 44

[turmoil]

The combination of warmer weather and global instability has always given upward pressure to the price. It just depends on which has more of an affect on the short term price: demand destruction or supply concerns.

On one hand, the $70-$80 range does not seem like a hard level to get to now, because I think the $60-$70 oil is just about gone. On the other hand, this could just be another low 60s to high 60s rally and $70 won't be broken until summer driving kicks off.

[coyote]

Guessing: I don't think the $70 barrier will be broken until this summer, when peak driving season once again coincides with hurricane season. But when it does break, it'll fly.

[Eli]

It depends on what happens in the news any mildly good news out of Nigeria and things will soften.

However if there if there is another major draw down on unleaded stocks again in the U, 70 will be broken on Wednesday.

[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', 'G')uessing: I don't think the $70 barrier will be broken until this summer, when peak driving season once again coincides with hurricane season. But when it does break, it'll fly.