[Graeme]

European HyWays Project Lowers Estimates of Initial Fuel Cell Vehicle Penetration

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')n interim report from the European HyWays project suggests that the initial 5% target for hydrogen vehicle penetration by 2020 in European markets is too optimistic, with 3.3% of the passenger car market by 2020 being the likely outcome of a “high penetration” scenario, and only 0.7% the likely outcome in a “low-penetration” scenario.

The report also concludes that until 2030, hydrogen production from fossil fuels with carbon capture and storage (CCS) will be the dominant mode of production in Europe, with renewable hydrogen slowly being phased in.

The market introduction of Fuel Cell Vehicles hinges to a large extent on the successes in educing the costs of the hydrogen drive train system. To a lesser extent, the price of hydrogen production and handling, the crude oil price, and the internalization of CO2 emissions will determine the penetration of hydrogen in the energy system.

[backstop]

Graeme -

Thanks for this news.

For all it's not exactly encouraging about the prospects for HFC vehicles in one of the wealthiest and best motivated markets on the planet,
I note that it makes no mention of Peak Oil & Gas, whose impact on the production costs of hydrogen,
let alone on the already massive infrastructure investments, has to be profound.

In addition, I'm puzzled by the assumption that by 2030 renewable energy (electrolytic) hydrogen for FCVs will start to displace that from fossil fuels.
The thing is I can't find any credible projections of renewables being so abundant by then that their output exceeds even baseload power demands -
which would imply using renewable power for hydrogen FCVs at the expense of its helping to keep the lights working.
Clearly a non-starter, or at most an also-ran.

I look forward to reading a similarly authoritative projection with regard to Direct Methanol FCVs, if & when you come across one,
as these offer a rather different set of costs and benefits.

regards,

Backstop

[Starvid]

Doing these kind of studies are about as intelligent as asking what the penetration of fusion reactors on the power market will be in 2050.

[Graeme]

I really appreciate your comment, Backstop, because you are not shooting the messenger.

I'm not going to claim to be an expert on fuel cells but with access only to a slow connection on the Internet, I can demonstrate the disadvantage of DMFCV. They are not as efficient as HFCV and in addition produce CO2.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his makes them well suited to power consumer electronics such as cell phones and laptops, but rules them out of automotive applications.

[EnergySpin]

Well, the good thing about methanol is that you can use it in an ICE .... no need to switch over to Fuel Cells.
And it can be synthesized from water and air (literally). The energy cost for this process is between 40-45% (meaning 1 J of electricity is converted to 0.48 J of methanol), and the cost is equal to 4.5-5$ /ga of gasoline-equivalent methanol i.e. roughly equal to the price of gasoline in europe. Unfortunately, in order for these prices to be realised in real life, one needs access to dirty cheap electricity i.e. large hydro, nuclear (:-D) or coal (:P)

[small_steps]

Let's say that the big boys know what is coming, and what the options are.
Let's also say that anyone that is talking about H^2 is either of marketing or political descent, as the rest of us know better... What is better battery? H^2, or damn near anything else, my money is anything else, because it has a chance at working. Talk to anyone who has worked on a hydrogen and/or fuel cell project, and that is willing to say what they think of the subsidy BS, and what the end result will be... poliLIEcians and the such will recieve their legacy, and it will be harsh, buyer beware.