[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Chocky', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ey, obviously their prediciment is their own doing

[Magus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PolestaR', '
')
What is selfish? It's quite opinionated really, some might say your survival is selfish and it's true in a sense, I take it you don't want to die? Alright someone of your class needs facts, hmm, facts...if you have more of X than person Y you are more selfish than them. That doesn't mean person Y isn't selfish, because to lose selfishness means you will lose life, life is selfish.


Just because you can't handle the fact someone labelled you selfish in a collective fashion doesn't mean you aren't selfish in someone's mind. Stop thinking you know what is absolute RIGHT or WRONG, because you don't.

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ill central Africa become like the Sahara?

[altair333]

You can't just decide to immigrate to a coveted location like Australia or New Zealand. It's pretty difficult to immigrate to either- you basically have to show you have job skills they need (e.g. physician) or that you are a rich investor. And I believe it's far more difficult to immigrate if you are over a certain age- 45 I believe.

There are a lot of South Africans who have emigrated to NZ or Oz, but many of the ones stuck in South Africa don't fit in any of the immigration-qualifying categories.

[Dukat_Reloaded]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')eing white would merely add a factor of ten to the issue.

[markam]

Lauren,

first of all I have to say that I think SA is about the most incredible place on earth. I fell in love with the country my first trip there, and only grew more in love with it every trip. Under different circumstances, I think that it would be the place that people want to live.

However, I don't see any way that that SA can avoid the fate of the rest of the African continent. It will be dragged down as the rest of the continent completely collapses. Add in climate changes from global warming, and I think SA will be a very bad place to be over the next 30 years.

I believe that it is relatively easy to relocate from SA to England, so that is probably your best bet. The other posters are correct that it can be difficult to legally immigrate to most countries.

[UIUCstudent01]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dukat_Reloaded', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')eing white would merely add a factor of ten to the issue.

[Zardoz]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ill central Africa become like the Sahara?

[marko]

Here are a few thoughts on location: For any place you are considering, think about how dependent it is on petroleum, natural gas, and international trade, and how disordered it is. On most of those counts, South Africa is probably not a good place to be post peak. But for that matter, the United States may be even worse. In my opinion, the United Kingdom might be better than SA in terms of social order, but it is probably worse in terms of its dependence on fossil fuels and world trade, on a per capita basis.

I agree with everyone who mentioned New Zealand as a hopeful destination, if you can get in. I'm not so sure about Australia, which is facing some pretty dire problems with climate change and soil degradation. It is also very dependent on fossil fuels (though it has a good supply of coal), and most of its people live in unsustainable sprawling urban areas. (There is less of that in NZ.) If you don't mind a little cold, I think that Canada looks better than Australia, and it is also a bit easier to immigrate to Canada.

As for the rest of Africa, I disagree that all of Africa will suffer greatly from peak oil. I have spent a little time in Tanzania, and I am very impressed with its lack of dependence on fossil fuels or world trade. It is a pretty self-sufficient place. Most of its people do not have cars and get around on bicycle or on foot. Most of its people are rural, and many of them already grow their own food.

If you are comfortable being an outsider and you can bring resources that would help a village, I think that someplace like rural Tanzania would be a very reasonable location post peak. I am a white man and was welcomed everywhere in Tanzania (and urged to stay by some Tanzanians). Mozambique or Zambia may be similar. Zimbabwe is obviously too disordered, with a history of racial bitterness. Botswana is facing a disastrous AIDS crisis. I don't know much about Namibia except that it is quite dry.

Most other parts of Africa are probably too disordered from the legacies of colonialism and dictatorship. A few countries might have decent prospects, such as possibly Ghana.

[DantesPeak]

Raise that number to 621,000 bpd:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il spill as militants blow up pipeline
By Hector Igbikiowubo & Samuel Oyadongha
Posted to the Web: Monday, March 20, 2006

YENAGOA—MILITANTS in the Niger Delta, weekend, blew up another pipeline belonging to the Nigeria Agip Oil Company (NAOC), cutting off 65,000 barrels per day of crude oil production and raising to 621,000 barrels per day the total amount of Nigeria’s output currently shut in.

[peaker_2005]

The oil price should be waaaay higher then.

Methinks there's some manipulation going on here...

[lorenzo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mesuge', 'T')his is aboslutely pathetic, good solar cooking dish costs $200-300 per family, you can boil water, cook, can your own food etc..

[Mesuge]

Oops, you didn't get it so once again. The point is that int. humanitarian or economic help is just a waste of resources. It's much better to buy them solar dishes or help build big solar mess which can serve thousands of meals a day and create local jobs like they have in India..

But as we know the int. help via IMF/WB is usually bound to the ruling class only so they can buy some scraped military gadgets from the firstworlders instead etc..

Again, the same pattern, simple solution available, but the status quo is maintained for political and economic reasons..

Hence, more points for Olduvai school of thought

[DantesPeak]

Petrologistics sees Nigeria production down 650,000 bpd in March:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')igeria's output fell to around 2,05-million bpd in March, down from the preliminary output figure of around 2,25-million bpd in February, Petrologistics head Conrad Gerber said.

"They should be doing about 2,7-million bpd by now, with Bonga and Erha and if output from the other oilfields had recovered," Gerber said.

Militant attacks in mid-February and another attack last weekend have cut around 630 000 bpd of output from Nigeria.

The cut has been partially compensated for by new output from Royal Dutch Shell's Bonga oilfield, which started up in November and reached capacity of 220 000 bpd in February.

The Exxon Mobil operated Erha field in Nigeria was expected to begin pumping this week at 50 000 bpd and to reach 180 000 bpd in the third quarter.

[erl]

"Everyman's death diminishes me, for I am involved in mankind,
Send therefore not to know for whom the bell tolls, it tolls for thee."

-John Donne

[MyOtherID]

Africa was riven with wars and inter-tribal bloodshed for millennia before the white man landed on its shores. That is a historical fact.

I blame the white man for:

• creating national borders that do not reflect tribal homelands and artificially group disparate peoples with disastrous consequences
  
• foisting their absurd religions onto Africans, further displacing them from their animist traditions and leading to cultural dissolution
  
• sending vaccination technology to Africa, leading to a huge, rapid rise in population, while at the same time no workable contraception was provided (partly due to the missionaries).

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

Lets not forget how the IMF's main aid policy and debt forgivness plans are based on privatizing resources.

Lets not forget all the land that they cleared so that the country could grow its main and (practically) only IMF approved crop (coffee) so you could all have your starbucks every day. How this action has deforrested large areas and turned more of Africa into a desert.

Lets not forget the aid packages tied to deals with companies like Monsanto. So that the crops they do plant are from Monsanto seeds and use monsanto fertilizers and pesticides. They don't get to eat the monsanto foods though because they can't afford it.

Lets not forget they aren't even allowed to have their own home gardens and there are roving gangs paid to go and stamp out any backyard garden they see.

It is our fault. now. today. becuase no one wants to face what is going on and until it really hurts us (like peak oil et al.) no one is going to have the guts to stand up to the government and the companies they cater to (like Venezuela, Bolivia etc.)

[threadbear]

They are being so massively f'd over, it beggars the imagination.

[MyOtherID]

Unknown Element, I agree with that list, but add to that:

• The stupendously corrupt leadership in virtually every African country
  
• The black man's inability to embrace the white man's form of government: democracy. Democracy in Africa is always "one man, one vote, once"
  
• The features of black culture that work against them: a belief in crazy witchdoctors' spells, a pervasive belief that huge families lead to wealth, denigration and brutalization of women, constant internecine warfare, a culture of dependence and victimhood (fostered by our misplaced guilt), etc...

[uNkNowN ElEmEnt]

I totally agree. and it is more than just unfortunate that there is now such an ingrained culture of victimhood. When Peak Oil happens and there is no longer any aid making it there (not that much of it ever got the the people who really needed it), I really think Africa is going to literally go up in flames.

More unfortunate I don't know that there is any way out of it. There is the slightest chance that people like Wangari Maathai will be able to lead the way... but it is probably more likely that they will be silenced in the chaos that ensues.

Does our inaction in the face of our governments actions make us complicit in their crimes?