[lorenzo]

I've always wondered what the impact of peak oil (awareness and preparedness) would be on the global tourist industry, which is obviously very petroleum intensive.

Tourism is the world's biggest industry, both qua revenue as qua people it employs. Literally millions of people depend on it. And for many countries it is the single most important source of income.

I found this interesting book, from the World Tourism Organisation:

The Impact of Rising Oil Prices on International Tourism

http://titania.wtoelibrary.org/vl=72618 ... latest.htm
(I'm not buying it though).

Does anyone know of any other good sources about this topic? I think the effects of rising oil prices, and especially the lack of real alternatives for aviation fuel, pose a real threat to several economies as a whole, who depend on Europeans flying in and out.

[peaker_2005]

Peak Oil is going to slaughter the tourism industry. It'll recover, but it'll come out much, much smaller, a shadow of its former self...

[Doly]

Agree. Tourism is going to practically disappear, at least long-distance tourism. Not just because it's very oil-intensive, but because with the coming recession, one of the first things people will cut in their budget is on holidays abroad.

[IslandCrow]

Will the collapse of long distance tourism (eg flights to spend a week on the beach in the sun, when it is snowy here), mean the rise/recovery of local holiday spots? OR will the economic collapse initally be so sever that all holidays are off?

My income does not come from the holiday business, but the community I am living in is highly dependent of the summer holidays, with, at the peak time, some 10 000 'guests' in a community of about 850 permenant residents. So any change will have a big impact on the community.

My best guess is that if the PO problems start with a slide (rather than fall off the cliff) then holidays abroad will drop faster than holidays at home (especially as most in my area are in 'summer cottages' so are 'self-catering'). I hope this is true because I think this area is a good one to be in in an economy that uses very little oil [based on looking back in history, its milder than most of the rest of the country and has farm land still in use], but that with the present population decline I am afraid that all the services might be terminated and the area largely abandoned just before it is needed.

[sysfce2]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lorenzo', 'D')oes anyone know of any other good sources about this topic? I think the effects of rising oil prices, and especially the lack of real alternatives for aviation fuel, pose a real threat to several economies as a whole, who depend on Europeans flying in and out.

[gego]

Has this already started?

I looked at Orlando, Florida airport statistics for 2005 because Orlando is a big tourist town. The monthly figures are presented with the % change from 2004.

It is interesting that for the first six months in 2005 the passenger traffic was running at about a 9.33% increase over 2004. For the second half of 2005 the passenger traffic was running at about a 4.8% increase over 2004. I deliberately excluded Sept., 2005 from the statistics because it showed a huge increase over 2004 due to very low traffic in 2004 because of several hurricanes.

This indicates that maybe tourism is already slowing down.

[rockdoc123]

Although it makes sense that at some point higher fuel costs will put airfares out of range of the normal Joe it doesn't look like $60 is high enough to have that affect. I travel a lot to the US, South America, Africa, Middle East, SE Asia. I can't remember when I have been on a flight that was not almost completely full. The airports all seem busy and hotel room rates have not dropped off. Suggests to me if there that price level for tourism demand destruction to set in is going to be at a lot higher oil price.

[rogerhb]

Interesting tidbit: By international agreement governments can't tax aviation fuel.

Monbiot

[lorenzo]

Good news and bad news:

Bad news: radical but creditworthy environmentalists show that the effects of air traffic on climate change is very strong and are thinking of a totally irrealistic ban on all air traffic: http://www.monbiot.com/archives/2006/02 ... ll-killers

Good news: biojetfuel is near: http://www.und.edu/news/

[SoothSayer]

I suspect that foreign holidays will be taken as long as possible ... even if prices rise ... initially because of PO denial and then because people will start to realise that such holidays won't be possible in a few years time ...

In others a level demand will continue for longer than expected ... followed by hitting the wall ...

[pigleg]

I was thinking that too Sooth - in fact, this is what my wife and I will do this fall - quit our jobs and take that FINAL big trip before its no longer possible! Still, I'm not sure that will outweigh the majority that will just cancel.

[whereagles]

In the long, long run, trips within a continent will still be possible by train. Intercontinental or long-range continental trips, which are done by airplane today, might be replaced by boat cruise trips and longer vacation periods.

There is an alternative for long-range transportation, which is a levitating train in a vacuum tunnel. Without any friction to drag the train, speeds of 10 000 km/h and upwards are possible with minimal energy spendure. Harder to make these tunnels between continents, though... you'd need a floating tunnel or something.

That could restore long-range tourism in a zero-oil world, but the initial investment would be simply colossal. Not to mention the behemoth amounts of energy needed to build these structures.