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THE Prof. Kenneth Deffeyes Thread (merged)

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Deffeyes' New Prediction

Unread postby Leanan » Mon 13 Feb 2006, 10:38:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')effeyes is more optimistic than I am.


8O Now that's a scary thought.

I'm really curious about why Deffeyes is suddenly so pessimistic. He seemed pretty optimistic in his books. A pessimist about how much oil was left, but an optimist about how we'd deal with it. He seemed to think we'd have a rough few years, then transition to wind power or something and continue on as usual.

Now he thinks we'll be back to the Stone Age by 2025? And I don't think he was just being flip, because he repeated that quote, and highlighted it.
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Re: Deffeyes' New Prediction

Unread postby EnergySpin » Mon 13 Feb 2006, 11:34:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('UIUCstudent01', 'I') especially liked this part of his biography:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hile working on his Ph.D. thesis, Ken found millions of tons of erionite, a mineral in the zeolite family, which had previously been known only from a single mineral specimen in the Harvard museum. Ken's first published paper was a redescription of erionite; it was his baby. Around 1980, erionite was found to be associated with a high incidence of cancer in three villages in Turkey. When researchers at Mt. Sinai Hospital injected rats with the same dosage of erionite that they used for asbestos, the rats didn't live long enough to get cancer. At a much-reduced dose, the rats did get cancer. Erionite is probably the most toxic known mineral; a milligram of fibers in the lungs is lethal. Ken's reaction on learning that his baby was a mass murderer was like all parents of mass murderers: "I don't understand it, erionite was such a nice quiet mineral."

Erionite has been linked to pleural and peritoneal mesotheliomas: link
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Re: Deffeyes' New Prediction

Unread postby jdumars » Mon 13 Feb 2006, 16:06:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheInterloafer', 'W')ho would want to be at even 1985 levels??


God help us if music returns to 1985 levels...
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Deffeyes' site has a problem

Unread postby Alnitaka » Thu 16 Feb 2006, 17:20:28

Deffeyes gave us an interesting back-diction in his peak oil date of December 16, 2005, but I would have liked to have seen all of his article. He says "Since we have passed the peak without initiating major corrective measures, we now have to rely prim" and then the rest of it gets cut off. I emailed him about the problem but the site is still like that. Does anyone know what happened to it?
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Re: Deffeyes' New Prediction

Unread postby aldente » Fri 17 Feb 2006, 02:32:19

Obviously the backdating there with three weeks is just a joke. This fellow is an original PeakOiler (read his bio) dating back to the 50'!. I understand his sarcasm, given the amount of e-mails that he probably receives on a daily basis these days.
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Re: Deffeyes' New Prediction

Unread postby Leanan » Fri 17 Feb 2006, 11:10:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')e says "Since we have passed the peak without initiating major corrective measures, we now have to rely prim" and then the rest of it gets cut off. I emailed him about the problem but the site is still like that. Does anyone know what happened to it?

It looks fine to me. I suspect it's a formatting issue with your browser. Try setting the text smaller. Or try using a different browser. FWIW, this is what the last three paragraphs say:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')ince we have passed the peak without initiating major corrective measures, we now have to rely primarily on methods that we have already engineered. Long-term research and development projects, no matter how noble their objectives, have to take a back seat while we deal with the short-term problems. Long-term examples in the proposed 2007 US budget (Feb. 9, 2006 New York Times page A-18) include a 65 percent increase in the programs to produce ethanol from corn, a 25.8 percent increase for developing hydrogen fuel cell cars, and a 78.5 percent increase in spending on solar energy research. The Times reports that solar energy today supplies one percent of US electricity; the hope is to double that to 2 percent by the year 2025. By 2025, we're going to be back in the Stone Age.

Ethanol, fuel cells, and solar cells are not the only shimmering dreams. Methane hydrates, oil shale, and the Yucca Mountain radioactive waste depository would be better off forgotten. There are plenty of solid opportunities. Energy conservation is by far the most important. Initiatives that are already engineered and ready to go are biodiesel from palm oil, coal gasification (for both gaseous and liquid fuels), high-efficiency diesel automobiles, and revamping our food supply. Every little bit helps, but even if wind energy continues its success it will still be a little bit.

That's it. I can now refer to the world oil peak in the past tense. My career as a prophet is over. I'm now an historian.
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Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Unread postby Zardoz » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 02:59:07

This is getting depressing:

Author Ken Deffeyes thinks the depletion of fossil fuels could lead to a worldwide cataclysm

*sighs, posts new thread, goes to bed*
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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Unread postby UIUCstudent01 » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 03:16:21

I never read about Deffeyes doomer side!

That's awesome.

Geez, more and more, I think the U.S. is just going to crash and burn the moment we get some big/prolonged oil shock.
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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Unread postby UIUCstudent01 » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 04:48:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Shannymara', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('UIUCstudent01', 'T')hat's awesome.

Please elaborate. 8O


I'm being slightly cynical.

Also, it's the first time I've seen anything doomerish in what seems to be a statewide newspaper. (Don't really know, but it looks like it looks pretty prominent - it's something more than an independant newspaper serving one or two counties. But then again, it's Oregon.)

In another two years, maybe the New York Times can pick up Deffeyes doomerish view without having an economist's soothe-saying.

Who knows? :razz:

It's just that seeing it in 'print' instead of PeakOil.com gives me a cynical vibe. It's like he's been reading the site.

In a way, he's right, instead of seeing 'progress' all the time, we'll see regression. We'll see more coal and less supermarket produce. We'll drive less and people will lose their jobs. It might seem like the apocolypse for a little bit. But I like to think that the future hasn't already been decided because of the current numbers and feasibilities. It's my future... :(

Maybe it's a 1 step backwards, 2 steps forward type of thing... onwards to renewables and sustainability!

But, hell, I believe there's too much fishiness around 9/11... take that for what you will..

My thoughts meander way too much for my own good.
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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Unread postby Peak_Plus » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 06:40:14

read it.

Looks like it was printed because of the quote that Oregon is the place to live (at the very end of the article):
"What I'd like to have is farmland on volcanic rich soils so that it doesn't require fertilizer. And I need a place where there's enough rainfall. <b>Maybe this could be in Oregon</b>. Owning something that's relatively energy independent and supplies food for the survivors to eat would be the sweetest target."
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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Unread postby Leanan » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 08:11:51

No, it's the other way around. Deffeyes had a speaking engagement in Oregon (read the second line of the article). That's why he mentioned Oregon, and why he was interviewed in the local paper.
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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Unread postby Peak_Plus » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 08:18:07

...and then got his views printed.
Sorry, don't (want to) get your point.
He was playing to his local audience and that's why the paper was printing it in the first place. It wasn't too controversial to print because the answer would lie in Oregan anyway. NYT would print such an article when the premises are half accepted anyway.
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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Unread postby Leanan » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 10:16:12

No, I think they'd have printed it even if he hadn't said that. They did after all invite him to speak in Oregon. A local group is sponsoring a series of peak oil speakers in Oregon, and tickets are selling out:

http://www.peakoil.com/article11565.html

I suspect they have their contacts in the press, and arranged the interview.
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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Unread postby whatpeak » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 11:19:57

Deffeyes refers to Amos Nur's website. Check out Oil & War

Amoses Homepage

sleep well.
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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Unread postby thuja » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 14:45:06

Funny thing is- they printed the Deffeye's article in the business section. It doesn't get all freaky and apocolpticky until the inside page. I think most people get a little too bored with the first page (if we can surmise correctly, then hitherto unrecoverable barrels of oil may never...) to ever get to the armageddon, gonna buy me a plot of arable land part on the in-page.

Being from Portland, I didn't attend the event but I heard that he's a tad wonkish when he speaks and doesn't understand the sustainable alternatives thing too well.
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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Unread postby Novus » Wed 01 Mar 2006, 21:19:23

I really like this quote from the article.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Deffeyes', 'T')he mildest form of the disaster is a global recession worse than the Great Depression, and that's a form it could take rather than war, famine, pestilence and death.


When I often talk about PO with other people I often talk about another great depression coming down the road. Many think they are hearing my worst case but it is really the most hopeful. The worst case is worse then anything a normal person can even imagine.
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Re: Deffeyes interview: Four Horsemen scenario is likely

Unread postby kochevnik » Thu 02 Mar 2006, 00:48:32

:!:

This is a pretty basic question, but would any of you master gardeners / farmers agree with Deffeyes idea that volcanic soil doesn't need fertilizer ?
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