[Kingcoal]

"Collapse" happened during the first energy crisis and the US adjusted to the new reality. The ace in the hole was persuading the Saudi's to keep asking for dollars in exchange for their oil. That kept the dollar from becoming worthless. Ever since that we've had a series of asset based, bubble economies. In the early eighties there was a real estate bubble that turned into a stock equity bubble that turned into another stock equity bubble that turned back into a real estate bubble.

What drove it all was the return of cheap oil during the mid eighties and the return of super cheap oil during the late nineties. Today's higher oil prices are being thrown right on the backs of third world production workers (costs are up, work harder!) Without them, America would have sky high inflation. How much longer it can all go on is beyond me.

[marko]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'H')ow much longer it can all go on is beyond me.

[abelardlindsay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('marko', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kingcoal', 'H')ow much longer it can all go on is beyond me.

[Monk]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('abelardlindsay', 'I')'m betting on deflation.

[katesisco]

Not sure about this............my feeling is that the US is maneuvering for position. Worries me that some sort of warfare is coming. We are building a new submarine port 50 miles off S Carolina. Planning on using some sort of electromagnetic pulse but as we do not understand the working of our planetary system as yet possible inadvertent markup in electro pulse leading to planetary/sun involvement?

As for depression, when the bankrupsies start and the homes are foreclosed, there will be a very big problem. Will the feds let it proceed to depression? Think not. As evidenced in the last go rounds of the economic cycle, the Feds kept a recovery going by fueling the big business interests and ingnoring the fact that the recovery was jobless. Makes me think that it is possible to allow part of the remaining middle class to fall into lower class and not to have it affect the national economy. I think the economy is becoming divorced from the people and becoming tied to global corporate health instead.

Scary to think that much of past economic theory no longer applies and the global corporates that will set policy. I think the middle class as an effective part of the economy is over; I think that corporates will rule in all but name.

Current Iraqui war could be seen as a way to keep Old Europe economically disadvantaged. Arabia was poised to be an effective economic recovery tool for Old Erope and the war scotched that. But Russia eluded capture by the private oil corporates and now can recover as oil prices are high and can participate in a European recovery.

The resolution of the Iraqui war will allow economic recovery for Old Europe and Russia. Continuing the war is an effective tool in repressing the economies of Old Erope and Russia.

The US seems determined to pursue military stature even as economic viavility within the states themselves falter. Where have I read that in history before?

[stu]

(title changed due to similarity to other thread)

[gego]

You mention the disappearance of the middle class as more and more fall into poverty.

A characteristic of a free society is a large middle class. A characteristic of a slave society is a small ruling class with all the wealth and a large underclass living is relative poverty. Just imagine a pre Civil War southern plantation (wealthy owners, plenty of slaves and a small middle class of hired overseers).

A society that is economically free will experience a normal distribution of wealth, as evidenced by comparing free societies with slave societies both in current times and relative to past times.

Things are working out just as manipulated by those in power. As the US government has grown from a mere 5% of the economy to over 50% now, with a corresponding growth in laws, the economy has become more and more controlled, and that control is used to redirect wealth out of the hands of the majority into the pockets of the priveleged few. Few people become wealthy from thier skills and innovation, but rather by the grant of advantage by the government. Much of the manipulation is done by grant of license to certain individuals and groups to the exclusion of others. Look at the license of the banks to create new money out of thin air, and loan it to you at interest for one example, and the recent change in the bankruptcy law is just an increment to enforce the extraction of wealth from you as part of this scam.

As it becomes more and more difficult for the average man to live, it also becomes more and more likely that we will have revolt. For most of the history of this country the economic pie has been increasing, both because we started out with freedom which has only been gradually destroyed, and also because of the exploitation of cheap energy. The average man's lot improved enough so that he put up with getting a decreasing share of the pie as his life improved, just not a much as the priveleged class. Now that the pie is about to shrink the decreasing share going to the majority will become more and more obvious. The danger of revolt is still remote, but increasing, hence early manuver by people like Bush to place the National Guards under the control of the President instead of the various Governors.

I do not think that the system of slavery is apparent to most. Americans have been so brainwashed into believing they are free that they cannot see these invisible chains that are sucking them dry, and of course the ruling class and the press they control work hard to keep the brainwashing continuing. Most people support the very Democrat/Republican rulers we call our government and are just manipulated from election to election as to which wing of the rulers they place at the forefront.

The system is basically unstable and there certainly will be collapse of some sort. The debt money system is highly vunerable. The energy system is teetering. The health care system is more a mechanism to fleece than to cure or promote health.

I personally am convinced that we will have a major civil upheaval within the next 20 years, as you can be sure that those in power will not suddenly decide to free the slaves. Unfortunately whatever revolt takes place will more likely only lead to a different ruling class and continued salvery. (Look at Castro in Cuba who replaced the dictator, Batista and gave the masses just more slavery, or the overthrow of the Tzar in Russia to be replaced by Lennin and Stalin.)

Your suspicion of war is also a possibility as an attempt to keep up US imperialism, and perhaps more importantly to temporarily diffuse internal revolt. History in the making. Ain't it interesting.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gego', 'Y')ou mention the disappearance of the middle class as more and more fall into poverty.

A characteristic of a free society is a large middle class. A characteristic of a slave society is a small ruling class with all the wealth and a large underclass living is relative poverty. A society that is economically free will experience a normal distribution of wealth, as evidenced by comparing free societies with slave societies both in current times and relative to past times.

[Colorado-Valley]

Have you ever heard of hobos?

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colorado-Valley', 'H')ave you ever heard of hobos?

[smallpoxgirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mad Max', ' ')For reasons long forgotten two mighty warrior tribes went to war, and touched off a blaze that engulfed them all. Without the black fuel they were nothing, they'd built a house of straw. The thundering machines spluttered and stopped. Their leaders talked, and talked, and talked, but nothing could stem the avalanche. Their world crumbled, the cities exploded, a whirlwind of looting, a firestorm of fear, men began to feed on men.

[Cool Hand Linc]

WOW! ?Doom and gloom written all over this!

katesisco $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')We are building a new submarine port 50 miles off S Carolina. Planning on using some sort of electromagnetic pulse but as we do not understand the working of our planetary system as yet possible inadvertent markup in electro pulse leading to planetary/sun involvement?

[Yossarian]

How Many Lives Should Be Spent To Keep America From Economic and Social Collapse?

"(I)t will take much more than the death of a few thousand soldiers and the addition of a few hundred billion to the U.S. government debt (200B adds 2.5% to America's debt load) to make them walk away from access to the hundreds of trillions of dollars, at current prices, worth of hydrocarbons that the region will extract over the next 50 years. (likely thousands of trillions at future prices)

Their financial if not moral calculus becomes even more understandable when you consider that even this amount is literally tiny when you compare it to the economic multiplier effect that having oil and gas allows to the industrialized world. The money multiplier is nothing to it. Consider. By some calculations every barrel of oil carries the equivalent of 23,200 man-hours of work in the physics sense of the term. Oil and natural gas are like air, water or soil, in that they are easy to take for granted until you lack them. (1) . . . Jeff Berg, Canadian political and peak oil analyst.

Using this thought provoking analysis for George’s motivations, it is easy to see why George relegated Afghanistan to second place in “The War on Terror”. Raising poppies for illegal heroin production, as profitable as it may be, is no match for the long-term profitability of Middle Eastern Oil."

"It has been calculated that our present American economic life style involves importing 6.36 million barrels of oil per day at a cost to our GNP of $426 million dollars per day – calculated on $67 per barrel oil. If oil goes to $100 per barrel, soldiers’ lives become even cheaper."

I love this 'ex-con' description of the author:
Nolan K. Anderson is a retired engineer and a veteran of Korea who was once a “conservative” until he found there was nothing left to conserve.

[Kickinthegob]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')onclusion:
If we consider honestly the possibly cynical – but true – analysis of the reasons for and the stakes in this “War on Terror” we can better understand that the thin patina of credibility the Administration is trying to paint on its war effort is well past the laughable stage. Associating the word “democracy” with this war effort is an affront to the mental awareness of even the most retarded. However, if we associate economic and social survival with this Administration’s war effort and the means it will use to reach its goals, we are much better off in finding a means of personal survival.

[csimba]

So the U.S. sucked all its domestic oil out of ground years ago, and now is simply trying to secure for its use the rest of the world's oil. If Americans decided to take the moral high ground and go back to a horse powered agrarian existence and allow the rest of the world to have the remaining reserves China, India, and other nations would just industrialise like crazy and set themselves up for disaster.
We'll get the bulk of what's left in the ground cause we got F-16s, tanks and Marines. "I got a War Machine and I ain't afraid to use it!" And every other country that can secure oil by force will, too. We'll all spend the next 20 years fighting over something that will be gone in 20 years even if we all beat our swords into plowshares. War is more entertaining than picking berries. This way all the world's young able men can perish along with the elderly, the impoverished, and the infirm. Shared sacrifice is such a noble cause...

[AmericanEmpire]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his way all the world's young able men can perish along with the elderly, the impoverished, and the infirm. Shared sacrifice is such a noble cause...

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AmericanEmpire', 'H')ey, it takes care of the population problem and the elites get to make lots and lots of money on the war. Win win situation for them even if everyone else loses, eh.

[Odin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Kickinthegob', '
')Tell the American public the truth? They can't handle the truth! Besides, Carter tried 30 years ago and look what happened - Reagan.

[spudbuddy]

a few points:
lest we forget - American domestic oil fueled much if not most of the allied effort in WW2.

If America actually is divided over the Iraq thing, the Middle East thing...
(this suggesting that something approaching 50% of the American population is against having a police presence over there)...
then it is high time they start effecting some changes at home.

There is nothing more ridiculous than a gas-guzzling giant SUV parked in the driveway of a 3500 sq ft McMansion with a bumper sticker condemning the war in Iraq. Where the hell does this political "activist" think the fuel for their luvly lifestyle is coming from?
Their sacred way of life is non-negotiable? - in their tiny pea-brain, they are incapable of making the connection.

The truth? Try wading through the western media machine's wake some time. A real tsunami of post-carbon bs.

Ob la di, ob la da, life goes on...etc.
Check out the long-range plan model for Shanghai. Manhattan-style skyscrapers stretching over acreage comparable with greater LA. Marvellous.
Let's have a glorious global pissing contest. Humanity never ceases to resemble small and very silly boys in the schoolyard.

-like steriod growth-hormoned party animals, really. Picture any politician anywhere, trying to figure out how to slow the thing down without having it fall over.

While we stagger along, America guzzles, and goes home. (where's a Zappa when you really need one?)
Meanwhile this strange - quasi-"liberty" gloriously fought over...turns as phony as a Disney-themed Main Street, as a Mc-pie in the face, (apple or otherwise.)

On the other hand - wars really have always been fought over resources - one way or another. Seldom over such a finite thing, though.
Which adds a completely new and refreshingly unique note of hysterical pointlessness to the rhetoric, don't you think?

(for a real glimpse into the nature of that - compare the schoolyard boys with the schoolyard girls....) Now that - is a scary picture!)

-and if one considers the mirror they hold up to reflect a bit of the dry-rot nestled in the very heart of our cultural malaise, I'd say we have our work cut out for us.
The work is one thing. Which tools to use?
-a bit like sucking an ocean through a straw..........



You're just as robbed with a fountain pen
as with a gun, son