[jsb1969]

Any thoughts?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20060224/ap_ ... fi/economy

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER, AP Economics Writer 18 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods fell by the largest amount in 5 1/2 years in January as demand for commercial aircraft suffered the biggest setback in seven years, the government reported Friday.
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The
Commerce Department said that orders for durable goods, everything from computers to cars, fell by 10.2 percent last month, a much bigger decline than had been expected.

The weakness was led by a 68.2 percent drop in orders for commercial aircraft reflecting a falloff in sales at Boeing Corp. after two very strong months. Analysts said the overall decline overstated the weakness in manufacturing because it was so heavily influenced by the volatile aircraft sector.

Excluding airplanes, cars and other transportation products, orders posted a solid 0.6 percent rise after an even larger 1.9 percent increase in December.

While the economy slowed dramatically to a growth rate of just 1.1 percent in the final three months of last year, economists are looking for a sizable rebound in the first three months of 2006, with some forecasting growth will top 5 percent at an annual rate.

Part of that strength is expected to come from manufacturing, which is expected to do well as businesses, bolstered by rising sales and strong profits, step up spending to expand and modernize.

Orders for non-defense capital goods, considered a good barometer of business investment plans, fell by 20 percent in January. However, most of that weakness reflected the drop in airplane orders. Excluding aircraft, non-defense capital spending was down a more modest 0.4 percent following a big 5 percent jump in December.

For January, total orders fell by $23.6 billion to $207.2 billion. The 10.2 percent decline was the biggest since a 14.2 percent drop in July 2000.

The 68.2 percent fall in commercial aircraft orders was the biggest plunge in this category since an 80.1 percent drop in December 1998.

Boeing took orders for 39 planes in January, a good showing for January but down from the huge 204 orders booked in the closing weeks of 2005. Orders for defense aircraft also fell in January, dropping by 22 percent.

Overall, orders for transportation products were down 31.2 percent to $54 billion. Orders for autos and auto parts fell by 3.3 percent following a 6.5 percent rise in December.

Orders for computers were down a sharp 11 percent in January while orders for machinery fell 2.5 percent.

[basil_hayden]

If we weren't at war, we'd be making nothing but hot tubs.

[FoxV]

I was always wondering why the Durable Goods was showing growth, and now I see its because of a rash of airplane purchases.

I don't give much Credit to Jim Cramer (I watch him as a "Mainstream" barometer) but he said once:
"What do Airline companies do when they're failling. BUY MORE AIRPLANES!"

So the only area showing growth outside the housing bubble in the US was all just in fact a symptom of more of its collapse.

After listening to spin after spin of how great the economy is for the past year, its kind of refreshing to finally see the veils being lifted (even when my job is included in that Durable Goods catagory )

[dhfenton]

Another contributing factor is Microsoft not getting its new operating system out on time. Most large IT departments are not buying equipment with XP on it. They prefer to wait for the next generation technology. This wasn't mentioned in the article, unless I missed it.

Airbus seems to be winning over Boeing. Just a side observation.

[Dreamtwister]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jsb1969', 'A')ny thoughts?