[pilferage]

Alternatively, we could offer comprehensive education for every human being. But educated workers aren't good workers... It's all about social dynamics.

We're at a Type I technological level, but since the FF industry has a vested interest in selling substances that were rendered almost completely useless in the space of a decade by fission, we haven't progressed to a large nuclear baseload with plenty of renewables to insure distributed and redundant energy production.

[sol]

Unfortunately I think this as well, unless Mother Nature beats us to it.

Might give the others a chance. I'd personally would rather die in a blinding flash of light than fight and starve to death.


A great change requires a great event, take your pick at which one.

Edited to add:

I’d rather not die at all!!! And instead use my knowledge and intelligence to choose a different future.

[BlisteredWhippet]

Umm, hello kids. Its me again.

Global thermonuclear war would render the planet uninhabitable... that means extinction. There are no sustainable, habitable environments outside our atmosphere, nor will there ever likely to be. Put down the crack pipe.

Like, obviously.

This is the reason that science in the service of governments cannot be trusted. We live under the threat of extinction every day of our lives. It concerns me greatly that arsenal is controlled by fanatic god-believers.

Welcome to my world.

I think your thesis is stupid. What kind of lobotomy did you have recently to conclude the world's greatest threat to its existence is its saviour? Does the concept of throwing the baby out with the bathwater elude you?

Besides which, a global H5N1 pandemic is more likely to "achieve" the effects you're suggesting while leaving a good deal of habitat and inhabitants.

I'll see you all in hell.

[Jake_old]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('sol', 'U')nfortunatly I think this as well, unless mother nature beats us to it.

Might give the others a chance. I'd personaly would rather die in a blinding flash of light than fight and starve to death.


A great change requires a great event, take your pick at wich one.

[Battle_Scarred_Galactico]

I don't like all the space colonization ideas but I agree there is a small chance to get off the home planet IF your resources and population is managed in a realistic manner, ours has been the polar opposite.

I think the nuclear part is utterly crazy and I'd much rather have a fighting chance at something better than be nuked, and I hope N.weapons become unusable in future (wishfull thinking I know).

[engulfthemanatee]

I get what you're saying, but I don't think nuclear war is the answer. We may indeed have to start over again as a civilization, but any other die off would be preferable to nuclear war--it just ruins the planet too much.

[Doly]

A nuclear war that seriously reduced population wouldn't just kill people. In fact, it would probably destroy enough of our ecosystems that the rosy prospect of going into space would be impossible for humankind as we know it. As for long-term future descendants of humans, hard to tell if they would be any wiser than ourselves.

[Wildwell]

Nuclear war would destroy the planet.

A nuclear detonation creates a severe environment including blast, thermal pulse, neutrons, x- and gamma-rays, radiation, electromagnetic pulse (EMP), and ionization of the upper atmosphere. Depending upon the environment in which the nuclear de-vice is detonated, blast effects are manifested as ground shock, water shock, “blueout,” cratering, and large amounts of dust and radioactive fallout. All pose problems for the survival of friendly systems and can lead to the destruction or neutralization of hostile assets.

Because of the tremendous amounts of energy liberated per unit mass in a nuclear detonation, temperatures of several tens of million degrees centigrade develop in the immediate area of the detonation. This is in marked contrast to the few thousand degrees of a conventional explosion. At these very high temperatures the nonfissioned parts of the nuclear weapon are vaporized. The atoms do not release the energy as kinetic energy but release it in the form of large amounts of electromagnetic radiation. In an atmospheric detonation, this electromagnetic radiation, consisting chiefly of soft x-ray, is absorbed within a few meters of the point of detonation by the surrounding atmosphere, heating it to extremely high temperatures and forming a brilliantly hot sphere of air and gaseous weapon residues, the so-called fireball. Immediately upon formation, the fireball begins to grow rapidly and rise like a hot air balloon. Within a millisecond after detonation, the diameter of the fireball from a 1 megaton (Mt) air burst is 150 m. This increases to a maximum of 2200 m within 10 seconds, at which time the fireball is also rising at the rate of 100 m/sec. The initial rapid expansion of the fireball severely compresses the surrounding atmosphere, producing a powerful blast wave.

As it expands toward its maximum diameter, the fireball cools, and after about a minute its temperature has decreased to such an extent that it no longer emits significant amounts of thermal radiation. The combination of the upward movement and the cooling of the fireball gives rise to the formation of the characteristic mushroom-shaped cloud. As the fireball cools, the vaporized materials in it condense to form a cloud of solid particles. Following an air burst, condensed droplets of water give it a typical white cloudlike appearance. In the case of a surface burst, this cloud will also contain large quantities of dirt and other debris which are vaporized when the fireball touches the earth's surface or are sucked up by the strong updrafts afterwards, giving the cloud a dirty brown appearance. The dirt and debris become contaminated with the radioisotopes generated by the explosion or activated by neutron radiation and fall to earth as fallout.

Thermal Damage and Incendiary Effects

Thermal damage from nuclear explosions arises from the intense thermal (heat) radiation produced by the fireball. The thermal radiation (visible and infrared light) falls on exposed surfaces and is wholly or partly absorbed. The radiation lasts from about a tenth of a second, to several seconds depending on bomb yield (it is longer for larger bombs). During that time its intensity can exceed 1000 watts/cm^2 (the maximum intensity of direct sunlight is 0.14 watts/cm^2). For a rough comparison, the effect produced is similar to direct exposure to the flame of an acetylene torch.

Thermal Injury

The result of very intense heating of skin is to cause burn injuries. The burns caused by the sudden intense thermal radiation from the fireball are called "flash burns".

SEVERITY 20 Kilotons 1 Megaton 20 Megatons

1st Degree 2.5 cal/cm^2 (4.3 km) 3.2 cal/cm^2 (18 km) 5 cal/cm^2 (52 km)
2nd Degree 5 cal/cm^2 (3.2 km) 6 cal/cm^2 (14.4 km) 8.5 cal/cm^2 (45 km)
3rd Degree 8 cal/cm^2 (2.7 km) 10 cal/cm^2 (12 km) 12 cal/cm^2 (39 km)

Blast Damage and Injury

Both the overpressure and dynamic pressure jump immediately to their peak values when the shock wave arrives. They then decay over a period ranging from a few tenths of a second to several seconds, depending on the strength of the blast and the yield. Following this, there is a longer period of weaker negative pressure before the atmospheric conditions return to normal. The negative pressure has little significance as far as causing damage or injury is concerned. A given pressure is more destructive from a larger bomb, due its longer duration.

There is a definite relationship between the overpressure and the dynamic pressure. The overpressure and dynamic pressure are equal at 70 psi, and the wind speed is 1.5 times the speed of sound. Below an overpressure of 70 psi, the dynamic pressure is less than the overpressure; above 70 psi it exceeds the overpressure. Since the relationship is fixed it is convenient to use the overpressure alone as a yardstick for measuring blast effects. At 20 psi overpressure the wind speed is still 500 mph, higher than any tornado wind.

As a general guide, city areas are completely destroyed (with massive loss of life) by overpressures of 5 psi, with heavy damage extending out at least to the 3 psi contour. The dynamic pressure is much less than the overpressure at blast intensities relevant for urban damage, although at 5 psi the wind speed is still 162 mph - close to the peak wind speeds of the most intense hurricanes.

High Altitude Burst.

A high altitude burst is one in which the weapon is exploded at such an altitude (above 30 km) that initial soft x-rays generated by the detonation dissipate energy as heat in a much larger volume of air molecules. There the fireball is much larger and expands much more rapidly. The ionizing radiation from the high altitude burst can travel for hundreds of miles before being absorbed. Significant ionization of the upper atmosphere (ionosphere) can occur. Severe disruption in communications can occur following high altitude bursts. They also lead to generation of an intense electromagnetic pulse (EMP) which can significantly degrade performance of or destroy sophisticated electronic equipment. There are no known biological effects of EMP; however, indirect effects may result from failure of critical medical equipment.

The electromagnetic pulse generated by the detonation of a single nuclear weapon at high altitudes can be a threat to military systems located as much as a thousand miles away. HEMP can disable communications systems and even power grids at enormous distances from the burst. This type of threat could be used by a third world country that has the capability to launch a rocket carrying a high-yield device (about 1 megaton or more) a few hundred kilometers into the upper atmosphere and a few thousand kilometers from its own territory (to avoid damaging its own systems).

Radioactive Contamination

The chief delayed effect is the creation of huge amounts of radioactive material with long lifetimes (half-lifes ranging from days to millennia). The primary source of these products is the debris left from fission reactions. A potentially significant secondary source is neutron capture by non-radioactive isotopes both within the bomb and in the outside environment.

When atoms fission they can split in some 40 different ways, producing a mix of about 80 different isotopes: These isotopes vary widely in stability, some our completely stable while others undergo radioactive decay with half-lifes of fractions of a second. The decaying isotopes may themselves form stable or unstable daughter isotopes. The mixture thus quickly becomes even more complex, some 300 different isotopes of 36 elements have been identified in fission products.

Short-lived isotopes release their decay energy rapidly, creating intense radiation fields that also decline quickly. Long-lived isotopes release energy over long periods of time, creating radiation that is much less intense but more persistent. Fission products thus initially have a very high level of radiation that declines quickly, but as the intensity of radiation drops, so does the rate of decline.

A useful rule-of-thumb is the "rule of sevens". This rule states that for every seven-fold increase in time following a fission detonation (starting at or after 1 hour), the radiation intensity decreases by a factor of 10. Thus after 7 hours, the residual fission radioactivity declines 90%, to one-tenth its level of 1 hour. After 7*7 hours (49 hours, approx. 2 days), the level drops again by 90%. After 7*2 days (2 weeks) it drops a further 90%; and so on for 14 weeks. The rule is accurate to 25% for the first two weeks, and is accurate to a factor of two for the first six months. After 6 months, the rate of decline becomes much more rapid. The rule of sevens corresponds to an approximate t^-1.2 scaling relationship.

Harm to the Ozone Layer

The high temperatures of the nuclear fireball, followed by rapid expansion and cooling, cause large amounts of nitrogen oxides to form from the oxygen and nitrogen in the atmosphere (very similar to what happens in combustion engines). Each megaton of yield will produce some 5000 tons of nitrogen oxides. The rising fireball of a high kiloton or megaton range warhead will carry these nitric oxides well up into the stratosphere, where they can reach the ozone layer. A series of large atmospheric explosions could significantly deplete the ozone layer. The high yield tests in the fifties and sixties probably did cause significant depletion, but the ozone measurements made at the time were too limited to pick up the expected changes out of natural variations.

Nuclear Winter

These studies predict that the amount of soot that would be produced by burning most of the major cities in the US and USSR would severly disrupt climate on a world-wide basis. The major effect would be a rapid and drastic reduction in global temperature, especially over land. All recent studies indicate that if large scale nucelar attack occur against urban or petrochemical targets, average temperature reductions of at least 10 degrees C would occur lasting many months. This level of cooling far exceeds any that has been observed in recorded history, and is comparable to that of a full scale ice age. In areas downwind from attack sites, the cooling can reach 35 degrees C. It is probable that no large scale temperature excursion of this size has occurred in 65 million years.
Smaller attacks would create reduced effects of course. But it has been pointed out that most of the world's food crops are subtropical plants that would have dramatic drops in productivity if an average temperature drop of even one degree were to occur for even a short time during the growing season. Since the world maintains a stored food supply equal to only a few months of consumption, a war during the Northern Hemisphere spring or summer could still cause deadly starvation around the globe from this effect alone even if it only produced a mild "nuclear autumn".

The Effects of a Nuclear Explosion on a Major American City

The following summary of effects is based on a 20-megaton ground-burst nuclear detonation above a city with a population of 2.8 million during the day when many people from outlying areas would be in the city working or shopping.

Ground Zero to Two Miles:

Within 1/1000th of a second, a fireball would form, enveloping downtown and reaching out for two miles in every direction from the point where the bomb went off, commonly known as ground zero. Temperatures would rise to 20 million degrees Fahrenheit, and everything--buildings, trees, cars, and people--would be vaporized.

Two Miles to Four Miles from Ground Zero:

Out to a distance of 4 miles, the blast would produce pressures of 25 pounds per square inch and winds in excess of 650 miles per hour. These titanic forces would rip buildings apart and level everything, including reinforced concrete and steel structures. Even deep underground bomb shelters would be crushed.

Four Miles to Ten Miles from Ground Zero:

As far as six miles from the center of the explosion, the heat would vaporize automobile sheet metal. Glass would melt. Out to a distance of ten miles in all directions, the heat would still be intense enough to melt sheet metal. At this distance, the blast wave would create pressures of 7 to 10 pounds per square inch and winds of 200 miles per hour. Reinforced concrete buildings would be heavily damaged and all other buildings--masonry and wood frame--would be leveled.

Sixteen Miles from Ground Zero:

At a distance of 16 miles from the center, the heat would ignite all easily flammable materials (houses, paper, cloth, leaves, gasoline, heating fuel)—and start hundreds of thousands of fires. Fanned by blast winds still in excess of 100 miles per hour, these fires would merge into a giant firestorm more than 30 miles across and covering 800 square miles. Flames would consume everything within this entire area. Temperatures would rise to 1400 degrees Fahrenheit. The death rate would approach 100%.

Firestorms of this type, though on a smaller scale, developed in Hamburg, Dresden, and in parts of Tokyo after conventional bombing attacks during World War II. The information gained from these experiences has particular relevance to the question of fallout shelters. In these earlier firestorms only those who left their bomb shelters had any chance of surviving. Those who remained in underground shelters were killed, roasted as their bunkers were turned into ovens and suffocated as the fires consumed all of the oxygen in the air.

Beyond Sixteen Miles:

At 21 miles from ground zero, the blast would still produce pressures of two pounds per square inch, enough to shatter glass windows and turn each of them into hundreds of lethal missiles flying outward from the center at 100 miles per hour. At 29 miles away from the center the heat would be so intense that all exposed skin, not protected by clothing, would suffer third degree burns. To a distance of 32 miles second degree burns. Even as far as 40 miles from ground zero anyone who turned to gaze at the sudden flash of light would be blinded by burns on the retina at the back of their eyes.

Sources:

http://www.fas.org/nuke/intro/nuke/effects.htm

http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Nwfaq/Nfaq5.html

http://www.atomicarchive.com/Effects/index.shtml

http://www.personal.psu.edu/users/p/b/p ... osion.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_we ... ted_States

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_co ... ar_weapons

[entropyfails]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', '
')Humans are not even currently a Type I civilization, we are just a Type 0.
1983 was almost 25 years ago - back when we could have still done something about all the problems we now face. Maybe poor Stanislav didn't really do us that much of a favor - maybe, in fact he just sealed our doom as an intelligent species.

[Gigashadow]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', ':')!:

If most of the earth had to get irradiated so that a new civilization of future humans could get off this rock and make it to a higher Kardashev type level - I think the price is well worth it, even if it were to mean my personal death.

[SinisterBlueCat]

95 -97% of all species that have ever lived on the Earth are now extinct. Our turn is coming.

[Eotyrant]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t has been theorized that a species has one chance (if they are extremely lucky) to get off the home planet and out into space. The race for survival is a life and death struggle between resource depletion and technology. You lose, you sink back into the genetic swamp from which you came, and furthermore, no matter what intelligent species subsequently develop on your planet, they are doomed to a primitive technological level as well.

[Novus]

I doubt there are any Type I, II, or III civilizations out there. The universe is too quiet. The SETI project has been going on for 40 years now and we have not heard anything from the advanced civilizations the Drake equation says must be out there. Prehaps every exrta-terestrial civilization went Oldavi on us after depleting their planet's resources. What hope do we humans have if the score is Civilizations 0 and Collapse 1,000,000+?

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'C')ivilizations 0 and Collapse 1,000,000+?

[AirlinePilot]

There arent a lot of really large yield weapons around like what's being discussed above. 20 megs is a HUGE device. Most nukes these days are below the 3-5 megaton range. Tactical and theatre types are much smaller. Most of our MIRVable ICBMS and sub based missiles are much smaller than that. Believe it or not anything below 1 megaton, while still obviously nasty, is survivable at fairly close range. It's possible that only a few miles away with even limited shielding from the intial flash one would be ok. Most nukes are designed to be air bursts where the overpressure does a lot of the damage. This tends to limit fallout. Unless you dig a big hole with a nuke or blow it up on the oceans surface, fallout is limited.

I think most folks have huge misconceptions about what nukes are for and how they might be used. The level of misunderstanding and misinformation about damage is ridiculous. The "aura" surrounding nuclear weapons is unfounded and silly. The reality is that unless we had an all out exchange 30 years ago, the likelyhood now is pretty slim. With current weapon numbers and delivery capability, I believe the world would easily survive a nuclear exchange as long as everyone who has one doesn't use them all. Thats just not a likely scenario.

Yes things would suck for quite a while after, but its defintiely not curtains for our species or our planet.

[Free]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AirlinePilot', 'T')here arent a lot of really large yield weapons around like what's being discussed above. 20 megs is a HUGE device. Most nukes these days are below the 3-5 megaton range. Tactical and theatre types are much smaller. Most of our MIRVable ICBMS and sub based missiles are much smaller than that. Believe it or not anything below 1 megaton, while still obviously nasty, is survivable at fairly close range. It's possible that only a few miles away with even limited shielding from the intial flash one would be ok. Most nukes are designed to be air bursts where the overpressure does a lot of the damage. This tends to limit fallout. Unless you dig a big hole with a nuke or blow it up on the oceans surface, fallout is limited.

I think most folks have huge misconceptions about what nukes are for and how they might be used. The level of misunderstanding and misinformation about damage is ridiculous. The "aura" surrounding nuclear weapons is unfounded and silly. The reality is that unless we had an all out exchange 30 years ago, the likelyhood now is pretty slim. With current weapon numbers and delivery capability, I believe the world would easily survive a nuclear exchange as long as everyone who has one doesn't use them all. Thats just not a likely scenario.

Yes things would suck for quite a while after, but its defintiely not curtains for our species or our planet.

[Mesuge]

kochevnik & novus> great posts. I was thinking along the same lines regarding the SETI poor results for some time as well. Most of the life which must be out there in the space couldn't make it into technical civilization aka basic radio transmition and if yes then they went in 99.9% straight into Olduvai path like we do..

There might be worlds which made it but they are certainly not interested in such a primitive and destructive sheeple as people on this planet..

I think that the people who own this planet are currently in last phases of planing or innitial phase of executing their plan for massive pop reduction.
Patsies and moles like Kissinger, Brezinski, or Condi could be suggesting nuke or bio weapons or something else but that doesn't matter that much they will deliver somehow in the end.. I think that Blair mentioned recently something like we have 7years to stop the runaway global warming so go figure how much time they give us..

Given the intelectual stagnation in the west it's quite likely they will proceed on global scale to keep the technological wheels turning as long as possible.. In another words US/EU people are included in this wipe out plan to some degree as well..

[smallpoxgirl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', 'S')o here's my admittedly horrible thesis: Global Thermonuclear War may be the very best thing that could happen to us as a species.

[lateStarter]

I'd have to agree with 'Mesuge' and others that anyone else that made it past our level would probably just quarantine anything from "EARTH'. In other words: let's not get infected with that again (been there, done that). They would probably treat us like the latest strain of Avain Flu. Maybe that is why there is no response.

Shhh. Be quiet for a moment until they go away (disappear)...

Maybe we will get lucky and avoid an all out nuclear exchange. But somehow, I don't imagine we will ever be any wiser. All I can picture is more of the same. For some reason, (some) humans always feel the need for power. Until we get over that, we are doomed.

[MicroHydro]

I have to agree with the father of SETI, Frank Drake, whom I met on several occaisions before bailing from Silicon Valley. There is no starflight by aliens and will never be any by humans. It is just too hard. By happenstance (or design if one believes in intelligent design) we are under cosmic quarantine.

In the most extreme (hubristic fantasy of Bob Zubrin) technologically optimistic scenario, controlled fusion might allow creation of a craft that could go 5% of lightspeed. Humanity would have to be very, very lucky for another earth to be found as close as 50 light years. If both of those things happened, colonists would 'only' face a 1000 year journey. This was never a possibility.

The best a technocrat can hope for is a pandemic dieoff with a population reduction that would allow a humble sustainable civilization to be established. I'm not holding my breath. We are just animals with hypertrophied frontal lobes and the same selfish genes as every other creature. Our collapse was already hard wired into our DNA 100,000 years ago. Just try to enjoy some animal happiness every day.