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THE Pandemic Thread (merged)

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.

isolating communities in a pandemic

Unread postby gs » Wed 01 Feb 2006, 10:00:10

are there any communities (villages,cities) who are planning to strictly isolate themselves in case of a pandemic ? Are there people here, who are interested to join such a community ?
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Re: isolating communities in a pandemic

Unread postby Heineken » Wed 01 Feb 2006, 10:22:28

I think you'd have to be crazy to isolate yourself in such a "community." You then become a target for all sorts of externally imposed controls, including perhaps a target for extermination. I'd rather isolate myself as much as possible on my own place and keep under the radar.
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Re: isolating communities in a pandemic

Unread postby kevincarter » Wed 01 Feb 2006, 13:00:13

Well, what they did during the last big pandemic over here (black pest 1.348, 20 million dead) was to isolate entire infected towns and burn them down. That is you don’t decide to isolate yourself, they decide to isolate you. In the case of such pandemic I think it’s just better to run to the hills at the first chance. A community will decide that it has to hermetically isolate from the rest when is too late, and there are always come backs of the pandemic, go to the hills is safer there.
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Re: isolating communities in a pandemic

Unread postby gs » Wed 01 Feb 2006, 23:55:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'I') think you'd have to be crazy to isolate yourself in such a "community." You then become a target for all sorts of externally imposed controls, including perhaps a target for extermination. I'd rather isolate myself as much as possible on my own place and keep under the radar.

I might isolate within that community too, but the idea is that the community prepares to isolate itself for some months or years,
in case of a pandemic. I don't know what you mean with "externally imposed controls", can you give an example ? By whom ?
When you isolate yourself only, you can't go out and work
and live normally. E.g. in the 1918-pandemic Gunnison Colorado managed to isolate and there was not a single case of panflu in Gunnison.
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Re: isolating communities in a pandemic

Unread postby gs » Thu 02 Feb 2006, 00:10:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kevincarter', 'W')ell, what they did during the last big pandemic over here (black pest 1.348, 20 million dead) was to isolate entire infected towns and burn them down. That is you don’t decide to isolate yourself, they decide to isolate you. In the case of such pandemic I think it’s just better to run to the hills at the first chance. A community will decide that it has to hermetically isolate from the rest when is too late, and there are always come backs of the pandemic, go to the hills is safer there.

panflu would spread much faster than Black Deatch 1348. Comminities will only quarantined from outside, if the desease has already breaken out. The idea is to protect the community, so the virus can't enter in the first place. No need to burn down sane communities, who decided to isolate.
In the hills you won't be safe. Do you have food,medication, desinfection ? How to protect from infected people,animals and their feces? The community can isolate in time, as soon as the panflu breaks out in Asia or Europe.
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Re: isolating communities in a pandemic

Unread postby Hermes » Thu 02 Feb 2006, 00:47:59

Being in a community that isolates itself would also potentially help keep out GM crops, and preserve food for future generations.
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Re: isolating communities in a pandemic

Unread postby gs » Thu 02 Feb 2006, 01:55:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hermes', 'B')eing in a community that isolates itself would also potentially help keep out GM crops, and preserve food for future generations.

GM crops ? Searching google: link
No, I'm not at all worried about GM crops. I'm worried about H5N1-virus. Noone else is planning to escape the pandemic threat which WHO and virology-experts are so worried about ?
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Re: isolating communities in a pandemic

Unread postby gg3 » Thu 02 Feb 2006, 07:15:35

My community planning group (northern California) plans to self-quarantine or self-isolate during the likely avian flu pandemic. This is hardly as difficult, or as paranoid, as it sounds: just stay in the community for a couple of months each time a wave of flu is underway. All it takes is six months to a year of supplies and savings for essential external costs such as telecom.

Members of the Latter Day Saints' Church (Mormons) are supposed to keep a year's worth of supplies and many do just that. If it works for LDS members, it can work for a diverse group such as ours. This is not rocket science.

I don't foresee significant self-defense issues for a small intentional community being any different for pandemic flu than under other emergency conditions. In fact it's less likely that a pandemic will give rise to marauding hoardes than something far more prosaic such as a severe earthquake.

And I really do wish folks here (Heinekin that means you, among others) would stop with this paranoia about anyone who is "different" being targeted for concentration camps and suchlike. It doesn't wash and it does make us all out to look like a bunch of stark raving loonies.
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Re: isolating communities in a pandemic

Unread postby Heineken » Thu 02 Feb 2006, 09:46:10

Sorry gg3, but I think it's very foolish to voluntarily deliver yourself in any way into the hands of the government. I don't trust the government to do what is in the best interest of me or my family, and neither should you. If you declare that you are "self-isolated," who can possibly say what the government's reaction might be? A deadly pandemic could provoke unpredictable, draconian measures. Chaos and panic are likely to be the driving factors, and in situations like that the best strategy is not to draw attention to yourself.
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Re: isolating communities in a pandemic

Unread postby TommyJefferson » Thu 02 Feb 2006, 12:49:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'A')nd I really do wish folks here (Heinekin that means you, among others) would stop with this paranoia about anyone who is "different" being targeted for concentration camps and suchlike. It doesn't wash and it does make us all out to look like a bunch of stark raving loonies.

I agree. Getting people to consider P.O. and the changes it could necessitate is not aided by wackiness. The whole thing is difficult enough for people to accept as it is, myself included. Quanrantine during pandemic is an interesting topic. I have more faith in local governments than national. I believe local governments are more pragmatic about such things.
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Re: isolating communities in a pandemic

Unread postby highlander » Thu 02 Feb 2006, 15:58:21

Isolation cuts both ways. If someone with sinister plans (weaponized biological agents) wants to see how it works, what better test than an "isolated community" It also would indicate how the rest of the population reacts to outbreaks in these isolated communities.

BTW, last week I talked to my sister, a missionary aid in Mexico. She visited an isolated community, Mennonite, and they had a problem with their chickens dying. they also had not heard of bird flu. My paranoia radar went off. Of course we know no one is cloning or experimenting with the bird flu virus
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Re: isolating communities in a pandemic

Unread postby Heineken » Thu 02 Feb 2006, 23:35:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TommyJefferson', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gg3', 'A')nd I really do wish folks here (Heinekin that means you, among others) would stop with this paranoia about anyone who is "different" being targeted for concentration camps and suchlike. It doesn't wash and it does make us all out to look like a bunch of stark raving loonies.
I agree. Getting people to consider P.O. and the changes it could necessitate is not aided by wackiness. The whole thing is difficult enough for people to accept as it is, myself included. Quanrantine during pandemic is an interesting topic. I have more faith in local governments than national. I believe local governments are more pragmatic about such things.

Apparently the example of Katrina is already fading from people's memories. My position is "wacky"? My God, they turned the Superdome into one giant concentration camp. The last thing I will ever rely on for help in any crisis is the government. A government does not serve the individual, it serves the government.
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Re: isolating communities in a pandemic

Unread postby gg3 » Fri 03 Feb 2006, 09:44:28

Heinekin you just proved my point for me. The people who tried to stay in New Orleans got herded into the Superdome. Those who got out early, didn't.
Re. small intentional communities doing self-isolation: FEMA et. al. (as well as your routine wandering thieves etc.) have no time to go looking up every rural driveway with an old gate (secured by rusty chain and padlock) and a faded "no trespassing" sign. You underestimate my capabilities in the area of security.
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Re: isolating communities in a pandemic

Unread postby Heineken » Fri 03 Feb 2006, 10:03:31

Perhaps I proved your point, but you don't understand mine, which is for the individual to avoid, during an epidemic, hitching his star to a "herd" of any sort.
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Re: isolating communities in a pandemic

Unread postby gs » Fri 03 Feb 2006, 10:30:09

hi gg3, lots of questions: how did you find that group ? Are you open for new members? Is there a list of such groups ? Are you in contact with other groups? When do your members enter, immediately or when the pandemic is imminent ?

Do you have medical services,electricity,water? Workers who go to work outside or come from outside each day? Desinfecting stations, quarantine-homes for newcomers? How do you protect the borders? How do you desinfect incoming goods ?
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Re: isolating communities in a pandemic

Unread postby Heineken » Fri 03 Feb 2006, 10:38:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gs', 'h')i gg3, lots of questions...

I don't get it. The infectious diseases most at issue here are transmitted from person to person. Why would you want to live intimately with a bunch of people during an epidemic? Quarantining is hardly foolproof, you know. And if your precautions fail because one night a member gets drunk and sneaks into the neighboring city for a fling, your "epidemic community" could become a petri dish for spread of the pathogen among yourselves.
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Re: isolating communities in a pandemic

Unread postby gs » Fri 03 Feb 2006, 11:04:12

the idea is primarily to prevent the virus from entering the community. And also, should it enter -you can never be 100% sure-,
to isolate inside the community as good as possible. We assume that a pandemic would start in Asia and that there
will be probably some weeks to close the community.
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Re: isolating communities in a pandemic

Unread postby Doly » Fri 03 Feb 2006, 12:35:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gs', 'A')nd also, should it enter -you can never be 100% sure-,to isolate inside the community as good as possible.

From what I gather about flu, it's so contagious that by the time you notice that somebody caught it, the whole community is at risk and there's little chance of isolating it inside the community.
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Re: isolating communities in a pandemic

Unread postby gs » Fri 03 Feb 2006, 13:52:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Doly', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gs', 'A')nd also, should it enter -you can never be 100% sure-,to isolate inside the community as good as possible.
From what I gather about flu, it's so contagious that by the time you notice that somebody caught it, the whole community is at risk and there's little chance of isolating it inside the community.

It takes 3-6 days until you have the first symptoms. For children it could be longer. Now, the people which were contacted during that time could be infected. Usually not all of them, only some. If there were no gatherings and by the time of the first outbreak people stay at home, it should be possible to contain the outbreak.

All contacts should be monitored even if there is no case in the community yet, so the contacts could be followed back. The computer could control the contacts and build communities within the community to generate further barriers.

Well, I don't know how big the chance is in practice. It's probably less than the chance to stop the virus from entering the community in the first place. Of course, if everyone isolates individually even before there is a case, then the chances are again a lot better.
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Re: isolating communities in a pandemic

Unread postby Heineken » Fri 03 Feb 2006, 23:58:46

In a serious pandemic in the US, what will actually happen is panic and chaos and social breakdown. Plans will fall apart, even if there are any, as unexpected rips appear in the landscape. It will be Katrina again, only worse and on a much larger scale. The only strategy that makes sense to me is to attempt to isolate yourself individually or as a family, preferably on a country place. You will want to get and stay away from ALL PEOPLE until the danger passes.
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