[airstrip1]

Means next to zilch. Even in long term bull markets it is not that unusual to see 10-20% sell offs over a few months. Any way stock market valuations always have to be adjusted to take account of currency fluctuations and inflation figures. The traded value of the dollar, interest rates movements and the bond markets are just as important as the movement of stocks.

[KevO]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LadyRuby', 'N')othing makes sense to me, I've stopped trying to guess what will happen next.

[Aqua]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('airstrip1', 'M')eans next to zilch. Even in long term bull markets it is not that unusual to see 10-20% sell offs over a few months. Any way stock market valuations always have to be adjusted to take account of currency fluctuations and inflation figures. The traded value of the dollar, interest rates movements and the bond markets are just as important as the movement of stocks.

[TITAN]

Since I am addicted to current events and interesting news (don't give 2 $#!ts about the whale in London or brokeback mountain or Greta Van Susterans latest dead woman) I hope this keeps up... Come on Iran!!! Keep being obstinate!!!

[Synergist]

I'm praying for some kind of bounceback on Monday, a minor rally. I've been meaning to unload more of my non-gold, non-oil positions, but I was expecting the blindly optimistic rally to go on until:

A) Bernanke assumes command of the Helicopter fleet

or much more likely (I thought):

B) March; when Iran opens it oil bourse and Israel's deadline on the nuclear issue vis-a-vis Iran comes to pass.

Then I was going into full bearish mode. But now, with the Nikkei problems, and this reaction, I'm worried about a Black Monday. Probably 5 to 1 against, but still...

[Pfish]

Brokers just churning the accounts.

[airstrip1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aqua', '
')LOL Fair enough then repect your opinion well see soon enough.
Odds are it will play out differently than both of us thinks anyway it usually does.

[Roy]

airstrip wrote$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')The key factor is whether share indices keep up with general inflation. If they do not then you can wind up with a sort of invisible bear market where share prices go up but shareholders still wind up losing on their holdings because their true inflation adjusted value has actually dropped.

[airstrip1]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Roy', 'A') rank amatuer here when it comes to the stock market... But, when the market hit 11000 this year, wasn't it worth less compared with the 11000 it hit in 2000? I mean, factoring in inflation during that time, hasn't the real value of the market actually declined rather than returned to its former level?

[RdSnt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DigitalCubano', 'W')hat a *ahem* fun day on the markets. Luckily, my portfolio is still biased towards energy, but I did liquidate one of my tech darlings today (guess which one). It's ok, I'm not married to any of my stocks, Even that dog that I had to put down today returned ~200% since 2003, so I can't be too bitter.

I'm not jumping to any conclusions just yet, but I have the feeling that this is more of the sell-off that the market was due than the market hitting a top. I mean, Motorolla takes a hit for no other reason than they can't roll out phones fast enough. Apple takes a hit despite recording record earnings. IMHO, expectations were getting out of hand. I hope that today's meltdown shakes out the nervous speculators with long positions and forces the analysts to revise their forecasts in lieu of the Iranian issue.

[RdSnt]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aqua', 'K')ing coal I’m not far behind you age wise and I have also seen this many times but I also feel something is spooking the wider market and normal market behaviour can no longer be relied upon. Articles like this do not enhance my confidence.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/4633720.stm

Note the last comments at least and think what $75 a barrel just could do to market sentiment let alone $80. My prediction for 2006, Major uncertainty due to developing geo political developments interfering with normal market behaviour including a possibility of a stampede But that’s just my interpretation we will all know soon enough.

[Novus]

Maybe the DOW will tumble another 200 points on Monday. We are in the middle of huge energy crisis but few people know it yet. The only thing that prevented rolling black outs and massive natural gas shortages has been the extreamly warm weather. Prices at the pump are a full dollar undervalued. We producing coal at 105% just to keep the madness going. I think the DOW could fall 3,000 points over the course of this year.

[Eli]

Let us also not forget that the Dollar is headed for a huge correction and big players like Warren Buffet expect it to happen soon.

For the foreseeable future high energy prices and bad news are going to be playing everyday. Hell Georgia just lost its gas supply from Russia that should make Europe even more nervous.

We will see I think that this is more than just a sell off and profit taking, I think it is a sign that the jig may be up and we are headed south.

The economic market does not have the nerve to stand up to the Iranian crisis and any interruption in the oil supply totally screws the whole economy. People freaked out when oil was driven up after the hurricanes, since it looks like we are going to have sustained higher prices they are not going to just freak out, there will people out of work if it lasts longer than 6 mo.

[Monk]

this from Harry Dent -

http://wired.com/news/technology/0,7003 ... tophead_20

[emersonbiggins]

Yeah, and bread will be $800 a loaf!
Ain't Bernanke great??

[FossilFool]

That actually sounds like good news. I don't know if he is accounting for oil costs rising even more though before 2010.

[strider3700]

his argument is that people getting out of housing will need to put their money into something and that will be the markets. He didn't appear to directly mention inflation that I recall.

My thought process here is that to get money out of housing you need to sell it to someone else. Is there really that many people out there still buying in that market for speculative purposes? I don't see how you can take these billions of dollars out of housing without either finding a new group of suckers with the cash to get in still or losing crap loads of cash dumping the properties.

Either way Dow 40,000 is insane.

[DigitalCubano]

Speculative capital shifting from the real estate market to the equity markets is a no-brainer. In fact, I have been literally banking on it since last quarter. The biggest barrier in getting the average joe back into the equities market is any lasting risk aversion from the tech bubble burst of 2000.

I'll start worrying about inflation when the overcapacity in the global manufacturing sector evaporates and the yield on 10-year treasury notes move beyond 5.0%. I am a big proponent of The Fed's hawkish stance on the interest rate hikes as they needed to establish a greater degree of monetary leverage (particularly in the absence of fiscal leverage until account imbalances are reduced) to avoid deflation. Deflation is a difficult situation out of which to navigate: everyone is holding their money because things will be cheaper tomorrow, so it's hard for policies to proliferate in the economy.

Finally, I'm actually glad that the money will be going back to the equity markets, as it will facilitate the capitalization of new businesses (some of whom will tackle the energy issue), which will spur economic activity via jobs and spending.

[SHiFTY]

I would imagine the retiring baby boomers will be selling both investment properties and shares to supplement their meagre pensions. After all, what are savings for if not to spend later in life? There is also medical costs- the current boomers will be demanding more and more expensive procedures which they may have to fund themselves.

This will cause a general decline in all investment markets I would have thought, but this could be turned around by a younger generation who are well-paid, debt-free and accomplished savers. Whoops, they aren't any of those things...

[Kingcoal]

40,000 what? yuan?