[miniTAX]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Seadragon', 'W')ell, that makes me feel better, until I remember that none of those things will keep us from collapsing when we use up/destroy our environment, which we seem to be in the process of doing right now, and quite sucessfully at that.

[Seadragon]

Oh, I'm sorry, I just assumed you had read the book we were discussing a couple of posts back, silly me, if you had you wouldn't have such a rosy view of how devastated the environment is at this very moment. I suppose I could point you to some other sources, but I suspect that you wouldn't be interested since they don't fit with the Panglossian view you seem to hold. Cars may be cleaner and more efficient (hey, wait a minute, efficiency? SUVs? wtf?) but there are so many more of them, or hadn't you noticed? Sorry, I'm just tired of arguing with people who seem to be divorced from reality.

[miniTAX]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '
')now who are we going to believe? SnakeBoyMiniTax or Hirsch?

[miniTAX]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Seadragon', 'C')ars may be cleaner and more efficient (hey, wait a minute, efficiency? SUVs? wtf?) but there are so many more of them, or hadn't you noticed? Sorry, I'm just tired of arguing with people who seem to be divorced from reality.

[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')ransition to local economies w/local food production, which requires much less in the way of transportation. processing, and storage, the bulk of energy used is in the food industry infrastructure, not in the production of food itself.

Something has been come up with (mmm, that's a phrase) but nobody is much interested.

[miniTAX]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('miniTAX', 'C')ars have never been cleaner and more power efficient than now (well in Europe or Japan anyway).

[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('miniTAX', 'F')or cars or for the forests, I told you about facts, not feelings. What can I tell you more ?

[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('miniTAX', 'A')nd yes, I do agree with you on one thing, environment is destroyed and used up... in poor countries. So what's the way, become poorer, all of us ?

[Seadragon]

Thank you, pstarr. I just didn't have the energy, heh.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'B')ut isn't this all just a symptom, of a bigger disease?

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('coyote', '
')
My questions: can we continue to feed 6 1/2 - 9 billion people using only organic methods, especially considering probable converging crises of soil erosion, water table depletion, climate change?

[Typhoon]

Wow, my post got a lot of replies. I'll look through them, but I just want to address a comment like "such and such would take 20 years". It won't take that long if there is the willpower to do it! You can bet that there will be the willpower when it is needed. Once alternatives are cheaper than oil, the market will make sure that a transition happens. It's really as simple as that.

A one-gigawatt nuclear plant would cost $1 billion to $1.2 billion, according to "The Role of Nuclear Energy in U.S. Climate Policy" (Richard J. Myers, 2003). 100 one-gigawatt reactors would cost no more than $120 billion. That is less than 1% of the annual U.S. GDP! We will eventually need more than 100 reactors, although 100 are definitely enough to replace declining oil supplies for awhile. (The U.S. uses 1,050 gigawatts of electrical capacity.) Even with massive cost overruns, it just wouldn't be very expensive to build nuclear plants.

Electric cars are not expensive. The issue that people bring up is the time it takes to replace the car fleet. This is many years, but keep in mind that all the cars don't have to be replaced right away! Even if the number of electric cars built was about the same as the number of gasoline cars built today, oil usage would decrease fast enough to keep up with the decline in oil production. Also, though, there is no reason why there cannot be a massive effort to build a greater number of cars.

Nuclear power with electric cars is only one solution. There are renewables. There are biofuels with positive EROEI. There is coal-to-liquids. There is thermodepolymerization. (I know the TDP plant in Carthage, Missouri was shut down due to the smell, but I don't see any reason why TDP doesn't work.) There are fuel cells. In fact, Moore's Law can set in with fuel cells, and the improvement required in fuel cells is considerably less than the improvement that has been made on microprocessors in the last 20 years.

Keep in mind that many alternatives are viable now, but investors aren't sure whether oil prices will stay this high. It won't be too much longer before coal-to-oil initiatives get underway. The governor of Montana is very enthusiastic about the Fischer-Tropsch process.

In summary, I just don't see any problems.

[Ludi]

The main problem I see is that very little action is being taken on any front. There may be loads of solutions, but if they aren't implemented, they may as well not exist.

Kinda seems like a problem.

[FatherOfTwo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'T')he main problem I see is that very little action is being taken on any front. There may be loads of solutions, but if they aren't implemented, they may as well not exist.

Kinda seems like a problem.

[coyote]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FatherOfTwo', 'W')hen the price of energy is the top concern of most people for more than 6 months straight, AND there is still nothing being done (or no rapidly emerging consensus that things have to change) then I'll agree with you we have an even bigger problem.

[JustinFrankl]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('miniTAX', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Seadragon', 'T')hen peak oil told me that the only reason we think we're special is because we've had "special" access to "special" energy for a brief time in history.