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"It's the Demography Stupid" ?

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"It's the Demography Stupid" ?

Unread postby ALBY » Wed 04 Jan 2006, 01:13:37

http://www.newcriterion.com/archives/24 ... emography/

money quote:

In his book The Empty Cradle, Philip Longman asks: “So where will the children of the future come from? Increasingly they will come from people who are at odds with the modern world. Such a trend, if sustained, could drive human culture off its current market-driven, individualistic, modernist course, gradually creating an anti-market culture dominated by fundamentalism—a new Dark Ages.”
Last edited by ALBY on Wed 04 Jan 2006, 01:18:59, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Empty Cradle

Unread postby ALBY » Wed 04 Jan 2006, 01:17:45

http://forum.atimes.com/topic.asp?TOPIC_ID=4996&#83717

the original link is broken. it is reposted on this forum.
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Re: It's the Demography Stupid

Unread postby ALBY » Wed 04 Jan 2006, 01:27:45

another money quote:

The refined antennae of western liberals mean that, whenever one raises the question of whether there will be any Italians living in the geographical zone marked as Italy a generation or three hence, they cry, “Racism!” To fret about what proportion of the population is “white” is grotesque and inappropriate. But it’s not about race, it’s about culture. If 100 percent of your population believes in liberal pluralist democracy, it doesn’t matter whether 70 percent of them are “white” or only 5 percent are. But, if one part of your population believes in liberal pluralist democracy and the other doesn’t, then it becomes a matter of great importance whether the part that does is 9 percent of the population or only 60, 50, 45 percent.
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Re: It's the Demography Stupid

Unread postby Free » Wed 04 Jan 2006, 01:33:51

Ha! A Spengler fan! I wondered how long it would take until some of the regulars there would stumble over here, particularly on the topic of demography.

For all people not in the "know". Spengler is a highly interesting columnist on www.atimes.com . His main obsession is, as his alias lets already guess, the ascension and death of cultures/religions. Demography is one of his indicators. Unlike most POers would, he mourns the lowering birth rates as a sign of corruption of Western Civilization. He thinks Europe is doomed and Islam will take over. US will be the new Jerusalem.

Read his works, although I don't share his opinions, he is a unique and gifted writer.

I repeatedly tried to talk about energy in his forum (it's the energy stupid! I think I even wrote that in a post there...), but it's not really on his radar. He thinks first comes culture, then the ressources. In some ways we are Marx and he is Hegel...

Edit: The second sentence in my sig actually comes from him (or at least he uses it often...damn he influences me more than I thought...)

2nd Edit: Also I found the Crichton text about Fear, Complexity and Environmental Management in the Spengler forum. Unlike here, most people there acclaimed it. You see, they are kind of the antipodes of PO. Would make for an interesting discussion...
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Re: It's the Demography Stupid

Unread postby jaws » Wed 04 Jan 2006, 01:56:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ALBY', 'a')nother money quote:

The refined antennae of western liberals mean that, whenever one raises the question of whether there will be any Italians living in the geographical zone marked as Italy a generation or three hence, they cry, “Racism!” To fret about what proportion of the population is “white” is grotesque and inappropriate.

Two hundred years ago there was no such thing as Italians. Italy was a country cut out of culturally heterogenous factions and united behind a nationalist ideology. In three generations there might not be any Italians anymore, but there might not be 'Arabs' or 'Americans' either.
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Re: It's the Demography Stupid

Unread postby ALBY » Wed 04 Jan 2006, 02:10:12

did you read the whole piece jaws ? steyn's demographic analysis is sobering.

im not a regular there free, just a lurker.

really, i mostly lurk here also. most of what i read in here nowadays makes my eyes bleed.
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Re: It's the Demography Stupid

Unread postby jaws » Wed 04 Jan 2006, 02:17:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', 'U')nlike most POers would, he mourns the lowering birth rates as a sign of corruption of Western Civilization. He thinks Europe is doomed and Islam will take over. US will be the new Jerusalem.

Isn't he always saying that Muslim birthrates are falling the fastest? This may be the last 'baby boom' generation for the Muslim world. Just like the 1950's were the last baby boom generation for the Euro-American world. We did take over the world, but as with anything, nothing is permanent.
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Re: It's the Demography Stupid

Unread postby Free » Wed 04 Jan 2006, 02:42:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', 'U')nlike most POers would, he mourns the lowering birth rates as a sign of corruption of Western Civilization. He thinks Europe is doomed and Islam will take over. US will be the new Jerusalem.

Isn't he always saying that Muslim birthrates are falling the fastest? This may be the last 'baby boom' generation for the Muslim world. Just like the 1950's were the last baby boom generation for the Euro-American world. We did take over the world, but as with anything, nothing is permanent.


Yes absolutely, he thinks the Islamic violence is them rattling the cages in face of their "cultural death".
He also sees the current sitution in Iran in that light. Ahmedinajad alledgedly is a big bluffer who sees a dead end in the demography and tries to use the last momentum to achieve maximum gains, like Hitler in the thirties, (who saw time running out because he knew that German economy would break soon because it was built on debt).

To get an other interesting view on demography read Emanuel Todd. He thinks the two main factors linked to birth rates are alphabetisation rate and wealth. In that light falling birth rates in the muslim world and generally would be a good thing. I tend to agree with him.
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Re: It's the Demography Stupid

Unread postby Doly » Wed 04 Jan 2006, 06:46:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Free', 'H')e thinks the two main factors linked to birth rates are alphabetisation rate and wealth.


Especifically, alphabetisation and wealth of women. Educated women with a fair share of power don't want to be baby-making machines.
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Re: "It's the Demography Stupid" ?

Unread postby nocar » Wed 04 Jan 2006, 08:47:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')specifically, alphabetisation and wealth of women. Educated women with a fair share of power don't want to be baby-making machines.


I do not think it is the baby-making i.e, pregnancies, which is the problem.
If having babies means you have to give up everything else, of course not many women will do that, willingly.

OTOH, If having children means that you do not have do all the care-taking yourself, but get significant helf from day-care, and if fathers do as much as mothers, many more women are willing to be a parent. Most women (like most men) actually want both children and work/career.

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Re: "It's the Demography Stupid" ?

Unread postby thor » Wed 04 Jan 2006, 10:24:45

Lower birth-rates should not be a problem, unless you wish to replace the indigenous population with Islamic fanatics that are loyal to Allah and not to individual freedoms and civil liberties. I actually find it very satisfying to hear that the population in Europe is dropping, but because we are delusional to "grow" in whatever context, the Eurocrats import Islamic populations to counter the drop. It is sheer madness, since Mohammed (pbuh) never said he agreed to a multicultural society that adheres to notions of freedom of consciousness ... How brilliant did the "youth" in Paris integrate, screaming "Allahu akbar" while torching the place down. Dark ages are looming in the horizon indeed.
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