[Lokutus]

Now the analysts are predicting 2010 per barrel prices of $42.53.

http://karavans.typepad.com/karavans/20 ... for_t.html


To be honest, I really feel let down by Peak Oil. What a dissapointment.

[Lokutus]

It's starting to get hard keeping the faith.

Now I know what the Christians felt like in 2001 after the Second Coming was cancelled for the 21st century in a row.

If we don't start to see signs of the collapse of civilization soon, or at least a deep depression, I may capitulate and go over to the Cornucopian side.

[Peak_Modernity]

Prices could very well take a tumble in the future, but not necessarily because everything will be fine. A worldwide recession or depression would drop the bottom out of oil prices. This is one of many reasons that people don't just bet on the price of oil going up forever due to Peak Oil. It is conceivable that at some point in the future oil could be very cheap, because people can only afford food and water. That's not my definition "good times"

[Lokutus]

Listen, can we talk heere?

Can we?

Okay then, I am really starting to feel like a Christain. Whenever I try to tell the world of the dangers ahead, they all throw a wrench in my works by asking for proof.

Where's the beef, Lokutus? Where's the beef?

So what can I point them to? The dropping prices at the pump? The analysts who predict even lower prices five years out? The geologists who tell the public to ignore the nutty PO doomers?

Face it, Peak Oilers are like a zany doomsday cult.

Even here, the best response I get to my calls for proof is, "Be patience, the shit will hit the fan sometime between next week and 2075."

I maybe losing my religion.

[Lokutus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Modernity', 'P')rices could very well take a tumble in the future, but not necessarily because everything will be fine. A worldwide recession or depression would drop the bottom out of oil prices. This is one of many reasons that people don't just bet on the price of oil going up forever due to Peak Oil. It is conceivable that at some point in the future oil could be very cheap, because people can only afford food and water. That's not my definition "good times"

[Lokutus]

Can't anyone here give me a shred of hope?

[lotrfan55345]

No.

[Lokutus]

What if PO is nothing but a big lie and this guy is right?
http://www.freemarketproject.org/specia ... amyths.asp

[Lokutus]

Starting tomorrow morning I will learn to whistle a happy tune and look on the sunny side of life like that blogger.

No more Gloomy Gus act for me.

[lotrfan55345]

Enjoy this energy-filled, fun life now, and if PO happens, you can say you knew about it and know what to do.

Live life to the fullest!

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', 'I')t's starting to get hard keeping the faith.

If we don't start to see signs of the collapse of civilization soon, or at least a deep depression, I may capitulate and go over to the Cornucopian side.

[AmericanEmpire]

Why in the shit would anyone want things to get bad?

Peak oil is one of those things I absolutely would love to be proved wrong on. I'd love nothing more than for "the good life" to continue up until I'm dead and gone.

[lotrfan55345]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Lokutus', 'I')t's starting to get hard keeping the faith.

If we don't start to see signs of the collapse of civilization soon, or at least a deep depression, I may capitulate and go over to the Cornucopian side.

[Novus]

It think deep down people have a need to be scared of something. It is a primal feeling we all need. Some people express it by watching scary movies, or by fretting over diseases like bird flu, or by going to hear a fire and brimstone sermans at church. They don't actually think the movie monster is going to get them or they will get the avian flu or got to hell when they die. It is just something to be scared of. Peak Oil has an element of that too only it is too intellectual and not primal enough. So we add on primal fears to peak oil which do not exist such as the possibility of gas and foods riots that break out next week. We believe it on an emotional level but we know peak oil is not like that. If world oil production declines 3% it is not going to make much of a difference in people's lives. It over 30 or 40 years it will though. But that is not scarey.

[PhilBiker]

The sky isn't falling quite yet, but we're in big trouble. Peak oil is a small part of a much bigger and more complicated problem. Do research.

I recommend Limits To Growth: The 30 year update.

Here's a nice summary.

[Specop_007]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AmericanEmpire', 'W')hy in the shit would anyone want things to get bad?

[killJOY]

When you "lose faith," take some time out to stare, entranced, at a few totems:

Like this



and this



and this



and repeat after me:

"Things fall apart, the center cannot hold..."

[leal]

Enjoy life as long as you can.

[elroy]

I just like to keep myself busy. Lately getting into quake 3 map editing a little, looking at a lot of architecture for fun and inspiration. Downloaded whole bunches of wallpapers of old ruins, temples and other stuff, like the Ankor Wat, Il Castillo in Chichen Itza, the Moai statues of easter island, Borobodur in Indonesia etcetera. It's quite amazing how pretty buildings were made before economy dictated fast built and cheap buildings.

[smiley]

Eexcuse me, but what did you all expect? Sudden riot chaos mass dieoffs etc? A bolt of lighting at a clear sky perhaps? A guy walking over water?

Peakoil is not a singular event. Mathematically it can perhaps be confined to one singularity, but from a human perspective it is a very slow process.

It takes several years for the production to pass over the top and to begin its inevitable decline. It takes even longer for its effects to reverberate through society.

On that timescale 2005 has been an extremely eventful year. Mexico has peaked, China has probably peaked, OPEC has lost control over the market. For the first time since the oil crisis of the seventies the oil consumption in the West has fallen. And most importantly consumption is now dictated by the production instead of visa versa.

If anything, I am surprised and frightened by the speed at which events are unfolding.