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Peakoildebunked.com - your comments and ideas?

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Peakoildebunked.com - your comments and ideas?

Unread postby Leanan » Tue 22 Nov 2005, 16:14:20

I don't consider Pimentel a racist. I assume he's being tarred with that label because of the Sierra Club thing. He thinks population growth is a severe threat to the environment, and in this country, population growth is due to immigration.

This is a sensitive topic. Anyone who says they're in favor of limiting immigration is likely to be called a racist. I disagree. You're a racist if, like Pat Buchanan, you're in favor of allowing Irish immigrants with no education but against allowing Pakistanis with PhDs. If you just want to limit population growth, regardless of creed or color...you may be a doomer, but you're not a racist.
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Re: Peakoildebunked.com - your comments and ideas?

Unread postby Wildwell » Tue 22 Nov 2005, 16:36:33

No it's not a short distance. Although I biked 10 miles a day for years, twice that distance. Ask your granny, most people walked from town-to-town and village-to-village in the early part of the the 20th century, if they didn't have a poney and trap or horse. Of course it's not ideal, but it get's round a lot of this silly population stuff. And in reality, that wouldn't happen, must people would buy an EV or hop on the bus and keep walking for the 'less than 2 miles' stuff - which I do every day. Your fictional granny is likely to order goods via the TV or internet and get them delivered by electric vans.
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Re: Peakoildebunked.com - your comments and ideas?

Unread postby Leanan » Tue 22 Nov 2005, 16:40:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')f course it's not ideal, but it get's round a lot of this silly population stuff.


How so?
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Re: Peakoildebunked.com - your comments and ideas?

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 22 Nov 2005, 16:58:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Wildwell', ' ')And in reality, that wouldn't happen, must people would buy an EV or hop on the bus and keep walking for the 'less than 2 miles' stuff - which I do every day. Your fictional granny is likely to order goods via the TV or internet and get them delivered by electric vans.


Buy an EV if one could afford it - hop what bus? Can granny afford to have all her needs delivered? 8O

I'd love for someone to buy me an EV.
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Re: Peakoildebunked.com - your comments and ideas?

Unread postby SarahC1975 » Tue 22 Nov 2005, 17:23:28

Flow,

The real experts were all at the Denver oil conference last week. And their conclusioins were no where near as rosy as those put forth by armchair experts like yourself and John Denver.


Could it not be that you haven't heard anything about this because we dont' need to hear anything about this? That the real experts in the industry actually understand just how much oil there is left, how much we can get and have a pretty good idea when Peak Oil will happen.
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Re: Peakoildebunked.com - your comments and ideas?

Unread postby JohnDenver » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 00:26:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'I') don't consider Pimentel a racist. I assume he's being tarred with that label because of the Sierra Club thing. He thinks population growth is a severe threat to the environment, and in this country, population growth is due to immigration.

This is a sensitive topic. Anyone who says they're in favor of limiting immigration is likely to be called a racist. I disagree. You're a racist if, like Pat Buchanan, you're in favor of allowing Irish immigrants with no education but against allowing Pakistanis with PhDs. If you just want to limit population growth, regardless of creed or color...you may be a doomer, but you're not a racist.


I haven't seen any evidence that Pimental is a racist. It is clear, however, that he is willing to work cordially with racists (like Virginia Abernethy), and was supported by blatant racists in the Sierra Club board election. AFAIK, he has made no effort to distance himself from racists, or renounce their support. At the very least, he is furthering the cause of racism by pandering to it, and providing a "respectable" cover for it.
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Re: Peakoildebunked.com - your comments and ideas?

Unread postby JohnDenver » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 01:12:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wilburke', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wilburke', 'A')ny discussion of the agricultural practices of this civilization includes many more levels than idiotic, reductionist nonsense such as "NG and coal won't be peaking for quite some time, so fertilizer is a non-issue, for at least the next 50 years."


Well, it's a solution. What's yours Wilburke? Do you have a better way? How do you suggest that we feed the masses?


Hmmm... Wilburke doesn't seem to have a solution... LOL


Gee, sorry I didn't get back to this thread sooner, but I hadn't taken JDs above quote to be some sort of "solution". Actually, it is the problem. Of course, the reclamation of the world's topsoil would be where I would start, but I'm not sure we as a culture have the will to face the problems of soil erosion (and the pollution that it causes when the chemical run off). Certainly, the "solution" of sitting on our butts and continuing our current destructive practices for another "50 years" while the population of the world keeps on growing is a hideous one.


Wilburke, I agree with you that degraded topsoil is a problem. In fact, I'm not opposed to organic agriculture in any way, as anyone who is familiar with my writing knows. I have frequently pointed out the scientific evidence that small-scale organic multi-cropping produces more food per acre than monocropping. I have consistently advocated the use of animal and human wastes as fertilizer, and done detailed calculations on the subject. I have also pointed out the tremendous waste involved in U.S. corn production, which consumes most of the nitrogen fertilizer in the U.S. and directly provides almost no food for humans. I don't have anything against people like Killjoy or Pops who like the rural life. I myself used to live in the country, and I know a great deal about gardening, weeds, soil and composting.

That said, the problem of topsoil does not outweigh the problem of keeping the people who are alive today from starving to death. That is The Problem, and if you think otherwise, you are an incredibly callous and irresponsible human being. Should China and India embark on a crash program to improve their top soils even if that involves mass death, because topsoil is the real problem? You need to complete the circle, my friend. Tell us how we can fix the topsoil and keep people alive. At least my approach feeds people, and it is feasible. It is actually being implemented right now in China where 60% of nitrogen fertilizer is already made with coal. Your approach (apparently) is to say that all efforts are futile, so we might as well sit back and watch people die. And then you have the gall to say that I'm an irresponsible person who should be ignored. Why should the world's people listen to you? All you are offering is apathy, defeat and death.
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Re: Peakoildebunked.com - your comments and ideas?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 01:12:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', 'C')oal to oil is capable of providing us with 2-4 trillion barrels of oil


Total proven world reserves of coal are estimated to total almost one trillion tons and are projected to last over 200 years at current rates of consumption. This I believe you previously posted was the source for this 2-4 trillion BOE, right?

The US has about 250 billion tons of recoverable coal reserves. According to the EIA figures, we can see that we have 255 years of coal remaining in the year 2000 given our current rate of consumption. That prediction assumes equal use of all grades of coal, from anthracite to lignite. Population growth alone reduces the calculated lifetime to some 90-120 years. However, if we look back in history, we see that there were 300 years of coal reserves in 1988, 1000 years reserves in 1904, and 10,000 years reserves in 1868! As each year goes by, our coal consumption increases and we see that the projection becomes meaningless. And if we suddenly move to a bigger reliance on coal, and coal liquidfaction for gas, then this estimate would surely drop dramatically.

Coal peak projections:
Hubbert Model Peak 2032
EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2004 Peak 2060
Flat gas consumption and greater coal consumption Peak 2053
Flat gas consumption and synfuels from coal to replace oil Peak 2035

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')able IX shows the expiration times (EET) of the high and the low estimates of U.S. coal reserves for various rates of increase of the rate of production as calculated from the equation for the EET [Eq. (6)]. If we use the conservative smaller estimate of U.S. coal reserves we see that the growth of the rate of consumption will have to be held below 3 % / yr if we want coal to last until our nation's tricentennial. If we want coal to last 200 years, the rate of growth of annual consumption will have to be held below 1 % / yr!

One obtains an interesting insight into the problem if one asks how long beyond the year 1910 could coal production have continued on the curve of exponential growth at the historic rate of 6.69 % / yr of Fig. 4. The smaller estimate of U.S. coal would have been consumed around the year 1967 and the large estimate would have expired around the year 1990. Thus it is clear that the use of coal as an energy source in 1978 and in the years to come is possible only because the growth in the annual production of coal was zero from 1910 to about 1972!


Dr. Bartlett

Coal will peak in 30 years utilizing synfuels according to the EIA in 2004, and this was projected before the realization that U.S. gas production had peaked and that growth of LNG would be difficult. Thus, coal will peak even sooner as it's use will increase to replace the loss from NG.

Not a good time to start relying on another soon-to-peak fossil fuel energy source. We will have trouble increasing production just to meet existing infrastructure demand, much less coal to liquids. We are already having transport problems.

The Peak in U.S. Coal Production

Liquid Coal
Last edited by MonteQuest on Wed 23 Nov 2005, 01:34:42, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Peakoildebunked.com - your comments and ideas?

Unread postby JohnDenver » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 01:20:35

Monte,
That material on coal is important. You are right that coal will peak very quickly if we turn to it as the panacea. People also need to realize that other countries will also be placing demands on U.S. coal.
See:
ELECTRICITY IN MEXICO
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Re: Peakoildebunked.com - your comments and ideas?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 01:21:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Flow', ' ') They answer to all of these type questions is: we will do it WHEN WE NEED TO.


Flow's mantra: We can and will do it at the last minute "when we need to."

Peak oil is tomorrow in planning terms.

We "needed to do it" 30 years ago, perhaps sooner.
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Re: Peakoildebunked.com - your comments and ideas?

Unread postby peripato » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 03:02:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'M')onte,
That material on coal is important. You are right that coal will peak very quickly if we turn to it as the panacea. People also need to realize that other countries will also be placing demands on U.S. coal.
See:
ELECTRICITY IN MEXICO

Well God bless me, if JD isn't actually agreeing with Monte on something! :-D :wink:
Good on ya JD I knew the worm would turn. :)
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Re: Peakoildebunked.com - your comments and ideas?

Unread postby JohnDenver » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 03:25:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Coal peak projections:
Hubbert Model Peak 2032
EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2004 Peak 2060
Flat gas consumption and greater coal consumption Peak 2053
Flat gas consumption and synfuels from coal to replace oil Peak 2035

[...]

Coal will peak in 30 years utilizing synfuels according to the EIA in 2004, and this was projected before the realization that U.S. gas production had peaked and that growth of LNG would be difficult. Thus, coal will peak even sooner as it's use will increase to replace the loss from NG.


Monte, where are those figures located in the EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2004? They don't seem to be there.
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Re: Peakoildebunked.com - your comments and ideas?

Unread postby JohnDenver » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 03:49:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SarahC1975', 'T')he real experts were all at the Denver oil conference last week. And their conclusioins were no where near as rosy as those put forth by armchair experts like yourself and John Denver.


Really? What part exactly was so doomy? I don't recall any of them saying "Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon" like Savinar. I also don't recall them talking about die-off, or the collapse of the global monetary system, or how to hoard gold and food, or why you should set up a homestead in the country or buy a gun. The majority of them were moderates, wearing suits, who felt that industrial civilization would muddle through but survive. And that's exactly what I think.
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Re: Peakoildebunked.com - your comments and ideas?

Unread postby EnergySpin » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 04:25:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pstarr', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergySpin', 'P')rof H is in bed with rascists like Pimentel and Abernathy ..... Calling the reality as it is, is not an ad hominen attack IMHO


You have previously questioned Pimentel without reason just fancy mathematical gobbledygook. And you called him a liar. Now he is a racist? I have repeatedly asked you to disprove Pimentel's biofuels eroei-study methodology or to cite a peer-reviewed critique. It is clear that the energy cost to ferment these materials is greater than the energy contained in resulting liquid.

Pstarr you NEVER did the calculation in the EROIE thread. Just to refresh your memory .... you used a typo as an excuse NOT to do your calculation. I have no idea about your background ... but the first thing that is taught in literature review courses is that the reader should read the study on his own and repeat the calcs to see if the numbers add up. I did .. you did not. And I did not read fancy gobbledspeak. Ordinary arithmetic proved that his one of three things 1) idiot or 2) a liar. His numbers did not add up and even worse he took the data to do the "Study" from a WEB SITE!!!!!! I'm sorry to say that as far as I know referencing a website as a primary data source is not the best source I could think of ... especially when the information is presented in an ambiguous way.

Now regarding Pimentel ... do I need to remind people about the Sierra club elections and the people who were supporting him?
In case you do not remember use google ....
In case you are an African American or Hispanic or simply non-WASP.. his closest friend and colleague in CCN Prof Abernathy has made public statements that amount to categorizing you as an inferior genetic species. Knowing the people you are in bed with, and a litl bit of critical thinking helps. Unless you want to stick with your personal religion and its prophets
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Re: Peakoildebunked.com - your comments and ideas?

Unread postby GenghisKen » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 08:12:20

I'll believe PeakOil is debunked when I can buy Abiotic potato chips(the bag that never runs out). I figure when all our great inginuity can do something as simple as that then energy will be no problem :P
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Re: Peakoildebunked.com - your comments and ideas?

Unread postby wilburke » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 10:09:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', 'T')hat said, the problem of topsoil does not outweigh the problem of keeping the people who are alive today from starving to death. That is The Problem, and if you think otherwise, you are an incredibly callous and irresponsible human being. Should China and India embark on a crash program to improve their top soils even if that involves mass death, because topsoil is the real problem? You need to complete the circle, my friend. Tell us how we can fix the topsoil and keep people alive. At least my approach feeds people, and it is feasible. It is actually being implemented right now in China where 60% of nitrogen fertilizer is already made with coal. Your approach (apparently) is to say that all efforts are futile, so we might as well sit back and watch people die. And then you have the gall to say that I'm an irresponsible person who should be ignored. Why should the world's people listen to you? All you are offering is apathy, defeat and death.


Ahem.....as always, with a JD post, where to start.....I dislike having to respond to hyperbole and invective, especially when it displays a want of careful reading.....I never used the word "crash". That is your terminology. As for China and India embarking on a policy that encourages improving the top soil, I would say that, minus the "crash" terminology, that would be a very positive thing, and not one involving "mass death". I am not aware of any work among the biointensive or permaculture crowd that suggests that there is a separation between food yield and soil replenishment. And when I talk about soil replenishment, my number one target is the USA. Our continued reckless use of nitrogen fertilizers will end up killing billions, both through soil degradation and ecological desutruction, hyberbole not withstanding.

As for your last three sentences, they are too stupid to even bother with a reply, especially since they are no way culled from anything I actually wrote. You're clearly having an argument in your own head, with a very pliable strawman, so I'll leave you to that particular argument. This is a pity, because we could find some common ground on matters of composting and biointensive techniques, were your manners and rhetorical style more reasonable.
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Re: Peakoildebunked.com - your comments and ideas?

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 23 Nov 2005, 11:42:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', ' ')Monte, where are those figures located in the EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2004? They don't seem to be there.


It is an extrapolation of EIA data assumptions in 2004 done by scientist Gregson Vaux in a study on US coal reserves.

http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/w ... _peak.html
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