PeakOil is You
THE Precious Metals: Copper Thread (merged)
by Tyler_JC » Fri 24 Jun 2005, 08:42:26
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dezakin', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e won't have to dig any out of the ground, since there's so much in the houses, wires, etc. there's a LOT of copper per capita and population's going to go way down, remember. I'd not stock up on any metals.
I dont see any evidence of a population implosion or a decline in copper demand.
Dezakin has a point. Copper prices have DOUBLED in the past few years. Above ground reserves are at record lows. The copper we can recycle will have to come out of our standard of living. All of our electrical wiring contains copper and if you want to run the world on an electrical grid, you will need copper.
True, we have mined quite a bit of the stuff, but the costs involved with taking apart a computer to get that little bit out will make copper rather expensive compared to today's prices. Copper mining ain't like it was back in the day. We used to have 50% copper mines (at the start of the copper age). Now we have .03% copper mines that are only profitable with cheap energy.
Aluminum smelting requires a great deal of energy. Many smelters are going broke as it is, think about what another doubling of energy prices might do. There are several other good conductors, but silver is far more expensive to use and gold...
Dezakin is also right about population growth. When, in the history of mankind, have we had a 90% population reduction worldwide? The only time I can think of was back in 30,000(?)BCE when a massive volcanic reaction nearly wiped out our species. Population growth is likely to continue for decades. Even a global pandemic will only encourage the survivors to create more little ones to fill the labor gap. The ONLY drop is population growth occurs because of modernization. More cars, more computers, more wealth=less kids. What happens when we step backward into the dark ages? More kids and the same level of medical understanding.
There is NO gurantee that human population growth will slow down any time soon. Food is our key resource and food production must grow every year or someone dies. Humanity will not allow 90%+ of its members to starve to death overnight. Governments will be forced to get food for The People or risk revolution.
I guess I'm feeling doomy this morning.
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by RG73 » Fri 24 Jun 2005, 13:22:09
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'D')ezakin is also right about population growth. When, in the history of mankind, have we had a 90% population reduction worldwide? The only time I can think of was back in 30,000(?)BCE when a massive volcanic reaction nearly wiped out our species. Population growth is likely to continue for decades. Even a global pandemic will only encourage the survivors to create more little ones to fill the labor gap. The ONLY drop is population growth occurs because of modernization.
Ummm, the Black Death? Ummm, European contact with the Americas and Australia? You're right, we haven't had 90% die-off on a every continent, but you did get something along those lines in North and South America when the dirty Europeans came with their bad hygiene and diseases. You will see something like this in Africa from HIV and other diseases that are ravaging the continent in the next few decades. The recovery time from the Black Death was, I believe, at least a century, if not more. People didn't rebound immediately. There will be no rebound in Africa, at least by Africans, given that they're dying of an STD. Making more kids just makes more deaths. It is pretty foolhardy to think we can escape disease. And it is hardly as if that is the only problem we face.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here is NO gurantee that human population growth will slow down any time soon.
Good luck. I'm betting we don't make it past 7 billion. That we're going to be immune to the mass extinction of large mammals that is currently going on is wishful thinking. And, in any case, we already passed peak mammal diveristy in the Miocene--its all downhill from there. We're a flash in the pan. No species goes on forever, especially silly primates that think they've got it all under control.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ood is our key resource and food production must grow every year or someone dies
Food production isn't growing and people are dying.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')umanity will not allow 90%+ of its members to starve to death overnight.
Haha! Starvation happens all the time and no one cares. We're letting people be systematically starved in Sudan, not to mention much of Africa. North Koreans are always starving. No one cared when Stalin starved 30 odd million people to death. China would not care one bit if 200 million or so people starved to death. There is no "humanity"--countries look out for themselves, and people look out for themselves. People will starve and the those lucky enough to get the food will not care.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')overnments will be forced to get food for The People or risk revolution.
Nope. More like governments will hunker down in their underground bunkers that they built for WWIII and stocked with a few decades worth of food and water. The people will be left to fend for themselves. It is pretty rare that governments get overthrown for not providing food. Look at North Korea. Look at Stalinist Russia. Nope. The people just die.
