Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation
Solutions in isolation. What do I mean by this? A classic example is nuclear power development without an answer to the waste problem. Another is increased coal use without considering the cost of carbon sequestration or the impact on global warming without it. Basically, it is offering solutions isolated from the true costs or consequences of implementing those solutions; i.e., failing to look at the Big Picture.
Probably the most cited solution for solving our energy crisis is instilling a conservation ethic into society and the economic engine. Conservation, by its very nature, is a self-induced recession on the economy. Increasing conservation always results in reduced economic activity. Each of the previous three oil shocks in the United States was followed by recession. In every oil shock, the US economy was at or near its “stall speed” when the oil shock occurred. From the cringes of the financial analysts as of late, nothing has changed.
Conservation means economic restraint, and that means fewer jobs which translates into less money in the hands of consumers. This results in poor sales that dominoes into business failures, more job losses and increased poverty that leads to conflict and human desperation.
Some will counter that new jobs can be created in the renewable energy field. Does this translate into a net reduction in energy consumption, or does it just transfer the consumption to another end use? I maintain it is the latter. The only way you can achieve the desired effect is to cut the standard of living. To re-employ those displaced by conservation measures, we must cut all wages so that there is less purchasing power distributed amongst more people. How else can you achieve a net reduction in energy consumption while keeping everyone employed? Somebody, somewhere, has to absorb the loss in consumption.
Can we afford cost-saving energy efficiency?
This is the question posed by the ecological economists Mathias Wackernagel and William Rees. They write (1997):
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he answer is 'yes' only if efficiency gains are taxed away or otherwise removed from further economic circulation. Preferably they should be captured for reinvestment in natural capital rehabilitation.
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Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation
Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation
by MonteQuest » Wed 26 Oct 2005, 23:57:38
Many economists of all persuasions seem to agree that improving energy efficiency through technological means will, by lowering the implicit price, result in increased, not decreased, energy use. Energy efficiency gains can increase energy consumption by two means: by making energy appear effectively cheaper than other inputs; and by increasing economic growth, which increases energy use. This certitude is the result of almost 150 years - since Jevons in the 1860s - of theoretical discussion on resource use, and empirical evidence from historic analysis of energy use in economies.
And, as we all know, efforts to improve efficiency are subject to diminishing returns. Eventually you reach a point where reduced energy availability will translate to reduced economic activity. Given the fact that our economy is based on the assumption that economic activity must grow perpetually, the result is likely to be a recession with no bottom and no end.
Hydrocarbon depletion poses some huge obstacles, and few realistic ways around them. We need to think these so-called solutions through. The perpetual myopic thinking of modern man will no longer suffice. This is a crossroads of a once-in-a-earthtime event; peak oil will only happen once. Its consequences will be here forever.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation
by DefiledEngine » Thu 27 Oct 2005, 02:03:16
What good does concervation do, if you don't work on population growth? How much has global oil use lessened, while energy efficiency has increased, from let's say the 50's? The B.C.'s?
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation
by MonteQuest » Thu 27 Oct 2005, 02:16:21
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DefiledEngine', 'W')hat good does concervation do, if you don't work on population growth? How much has global oil use lessened, while energy efficiency has increased, from let's say the 50's? The B.C.'s?
Goes without saying. To keep consumption levels down, you must lower the standard of living even further, dividing the pie amongst even more people.
Even if we could get conservation to work for the current population, what about the newcomers?
Where do they get their energy while avoiding a net increase in energy consumption?
I'll tell you...from your current share or standard of living.
Are people starting to grasp why conservation only works in a powerdown and population reduction scenario?
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation
by peripato » Thu 27 Oct 2005, 02:46:08
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'A')re people starting to grasp why conservation only works in a powerdown and population reduction scenario?
Unfortunately most do not and will not, even after confronted by the facts. Realisation that the hyper-growth paradigm that totally dominates the world leads to resource depletion and biosphere destruction is too much for most to bear.
So they deny it, denigrating all purveyors of the idea that we exist in a finite world and must begin to live within our means at a far lower level of energy than present if we are to save the planet for posterity. Instead cosmetic solutions like taking the shopping home in reusable bags or seperating the garbage for recycling are offered up. This may make people feel better about doing something for the environment and the cause of conservation but lifestyles aren't really affected. Few will make the leap voluntarily to a real powerdown - a world with less things because this requires genuine sacrifice and humility.
Only the strongest characters can and will buck the dominant trend of consumerism and attempt to disengage from its grip up till the end. Verily they will be ridiculed, nay persecuted by friend and foe alike for their heresy. Of a disbelief in a tomorrow of more and more things - until the terrible truth of its "lie" is laid out before the world.
Last edited by peripato on Thu 27 Oct 2005, 08:25:43, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation
by Battle_Scarred_Galactico » Thu 27 Oct 2005, 04:18:36
"To keep consumption levels down, you must lower the standard of living even further, dividing the pie amongst even more people."
We will fight before we do that.
We will fight before we do that.
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Re: Solving Oil Depletion; Solutions in Isolation
by NeoPeasant » Thu 27 Oct 2005, 09:14:23
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '
')Goes without saying. To keep consumption levels down, you must lower the standard of living even further
')Goes without saying. To keep consumption levels down, you must lower the standard of living even further
No, we don't have to lower the standard of living, we have to lower the standard of material consumption. Our standard of living is low now because our standard of material consumption is high.
We have been the recipients of billions of dollars of brainwashing convincing us that by scattering ourselves all over the place and depending on cars to make up for all the unnecessary distances, and by eating colorfully packaged and processed factory foods and indulging in professional sports and high tech electronic diversions we are living "the good life."
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. But I see nothing incorrect in this observation. No agendas except to reach sanity. aint nothing wrong with that. Peace on earth and goodwill towards man.
