[ALBY]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('johnmarkos', ' ')So you don't like lawsuits? I agree -- they're ugly. What's a better way to do it?

[johnmarkos]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ALBY', '
')I think you just laid out the skeleton for a viable soloution: remove the subsidies and let drivers bear the expense of road maintenance and pollution charges in their fuel bill and maybe even a personal property tax for automobiles. Make trucking companies bear their fair share of road maintenance and eliminate their subsidies. At the same time, we need a crash program for freight rail rehab and light rail for passenger service.

[deadmaker7]

I definately think attitudes will change. Walking several miles a day, once a commonplaced thing, will become the norm again. Because we will be forced to.

[SinisterBlueCat]

I work with horses everyday, and frankly, I think the general population is not going to be using horses. At least not after the first time they see a fiesty 3 year old buck, buck, buck and then for good measure throw in a huge slying cow kick. Nope, I just can't see it happening.

I think the shoe leather express is going to be the standard mode of transport.

[DarkDawg]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think the general population is not going to be using horses.

[Trab]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DarkDawg', '
')
Umm, what did they do for thousands of years before cars? Ever read a history book?

[skyemoor]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Trab', '
')While horses will be useful, for sure, I don't think the 2-horse garage is going to be all that necessary for most folks.

[Trab]

All True. Any form of agricultural work will require more muscle power from both humans and animals.

This thread is dealing with issues of transportation, though, and I based my response on that.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat happens to private transportation?

[Novus]

In the short term transportation will go along the techno fix. SUVs replaced with small cars and few trips. Medium to Long term Bikes and horse will come to be the in thing.

In the far distant future it will be a more biological fix that will lead to adaptations to the world long after oil. I think it is humans that will shrink to adapt. Today the Average American male is 6 feet tall and 200 pounds. A Thousand years ago the Average English male was 5'4" and 125 pounds and dwarfism wasn't seen as a disability but an asset during the lean years. When resources are scarce humans adapt into pygmies. The Average male in the pygmy tribe is only 4'8" and 90 pounds. The land can sustain more pygmies and dwarfs than full sized humans. Everything can be built closer together which will eliminate the need for long distance travel.

[Daryl]

Does anybody know much about plug in hybrids? I believe I read that they have working models that allow plug-in to a home outlet, 45 minutes to an hour driving on battery power and then gas engine kicks in. This would seem to cut into personal gasoline usage by a huge percentage.

I was looking at Savinar's site. He has two arguments against "super hybrids". 1- we can't afford to build them 2- Their aren't enought specialty metals in the world to make that many batteries.

Argument 1 is questionable to me, because these aren't extra cars being built, they theoretically would be built in place of other bigger cars that presumably would take even more energy to make. He uses that logic many times. I think it is his weakest argument.

Argument 2 I don't know much about.

[WisJim]

Regarding horses: when automobiles were first becoming used, one of their advantages was that they were going to make the city streets much cleaner by eliminating the horses that poop everywhere they go. Horse transportation with today's small rural agricultural population would be impractical. It would only make sense if there was a resurgence of small farms (which I would like to see) with farmers who were willing to farm with horses or other draft animals. The use of millions of horses by city folks would require huge amounts of hay and grains to be transported to the cities adding to the transportation problem, unless huge areas in and around cities were converted to farms.

[jaws]

Those of you talking about horses coming back are out of your minds. Horses were not available to the masses because they were expensive in terms of energy, and they still are today. Cars are better than horses.

[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jaws', 'T')hose of you talking about horses coming back are out of your minds. Horses were not available to the masses because they were expensive in terms of energy, and they still are today. Cars are better than horses.

[gg3]

WisJim is right on target about horse poop. When horses were used for primary urban transport, the manure, mixed with urine, was 18" deep in the streets. After that became intolerable due to endemic diseases, it took armies of street cleaners to keep up with the accumulation. Compared to all of that, automobiles were a blessing.

Horses rural, yes. Horses urban, no.

Hydrogen: no. Storage is a huge hassle, it seeps through any and all other known materials, faster or slower, but the loss is always present.

Where I think the future of transport is going:

More reliance on bicycles, enclosed three-wheel pedal powered vehicles, microcars using various 3-way-hybrid combinations of moped engines, electric, and pedal power, and larger plug-in hybrids for people with long distance transport needs. Electric power for short-haul trucks for urban work. Hybrid powertrains for trucks in certain applications. Shift from long distance trucking to rail for many freight applications but not all. Much greater reliance on public transport for passenger service, including light rail and electrified trolley bus lines. Mid-speed rail (approx. 100 mph) for many passenger applications in the range up to about 500 miles, possibly up to 1,000 miles. Microbuses to serve dispersed routes, much as airport shuttles do at present. Large shift to telecommuting for people whose jobs consist of handling information (e.g. people who work at desks using computers and telephones). Reduction in transport distances for many goods due to relocalization.

Here's a wild idea for you. If you live in the Bay Area you know about the Caldecott Tunnel: three bores through the mountains between 510 and 925 (sorry folks, I map geography by telephone area code, I'm a professional phone geek). Okay, here's the scenario: Keep two bores for conventional motor traffic, one-way per tunnel. Take the third bore, convert to accommodate two-way traffic consisting of bicycles and anything that qualifies as a moped, which would include your small electric three-wheelers and enclosed microcars with moped engines. Have your last couple of on-ramps in Berkeley/Oakland converted to divided traffic, with one lane switched to two-way traffic for bikes etc., and same case for your first two off-ramps on the other side, e.g. Orinda. This would allow the low-speed vehicles to get on and off from city streets at each end.

A similar case could be applied to the Bay Bridge except for the obvious safety hazard of cars whizzing by at high speed, even if there were concrete barriers to separate the alternative vehicles lane.

Prediction: whichever transport link (the tunnel or the bridge) is converted to enable use of pedal power and low-power vehicles, will produce economic benefits at both ends.

Here's another wild idea: Elevated bikeways. This was developed by an old friend & colleague, many years ago; he still thinks it's viable and so do I. In cities where roads are already congested, install the supporting columns along the center median strip, and provide onramps and offramps at suitable locations. Allow bikes, mopeds, enclosed versions of same, and the usual variations, to use these. Maximum speed 25 mph. If these bikeways were enclosed, they would be viable for conventional bikes even during major storm conditions.

Prediction: wherever these are built, housing near the on/off ramps will be in high demand.

[SinisterBlueCat]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DarkDawg', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') think the general population is not going to be using horses.

[johnmarkos]

Here's my plan for eliminating the private automobile. It's a work-in-progress. and I welcome new ideas for the transition to a car-free future.

[stephenV]

I have to admit, I'm a total car nut, so this comes from a different point of view, but here's what I see as the first step: We need a car replacement.

By car replacement, I mean it has to include all the following:
-self driven,
-capable of 50mph,
-able to carry more than one passenger, out of the weather,
-easy to refuel

That said, I think it would take almost nothing to create a new category of automobile designed for just basic transportation needs. Designed into the new class of automobile would be the following minimum specifications:
-light weight- pick a #, say 1000 pounds
-fuel effecient- again, pick a #, let's start at 75mpg
-top speed 55 mph or so
-scalability- today it's a 1-person unit with a cargo bed, tommmorrow it's a 4-person commuter
-drivetrain flexibility- simply tell the manufacturers that the power plant has to be just so big, then let them build electric or diesel or gas or whatever, but in a standard and interchangeable unit that can go from one vehicle to another. If 9/10 of the time an electric works just fine for you, then you have an electric. If you need to make that holiday trip to Grandma's you borrow your neighbors gas power unit. This way as the fuel effeciency standards get more stringent the whole power unit can be traded-in and the fear of not making it home that stifled the electric car market will be somewhat abated. Also, if something goes wrong somewhere, all the local mechanic would need is a "spare" unit to get you home while he fixed yours.
-cost- Have to make these things, with no fancy features or silliness, for cheap. Again, pick a #, but $2k is a good one. It has to be so cheap that little sister Sally going off to college wants one. So cheap that used "regular" cars can't sell. If cheap means you have to give up some things, like side curtain air bags or anti-lock brakes, that's OK. If cheap means you have to scrap emissians standards and let the manufacturers build it however they want, that's OK too. If they turn out to be polluters, raise the economy standard until they have to be efficient. Some of the safety standards can be relaxed some as these things can't go fast enough to get in serious trouble, and you should probably ban them from the major highways anyway.

Start out with something like the DARPA challenge, test the waters. See what industry can come up with. I'd personally love to ride my bicycle to work, but with no shower facilities at work, poor parking and security for bicycles at work, and weather it's just not possible. If there was a cheap alternative, that saved me $ every time I did use it, I'd buy one, and I bet I'm not alone.

[johnmarkos]

Excellent first post, StephenV. I think you're on to something here. Interestingly, Cory Doctorow envisions people about twenty years from now driving something like what you're talking about in his novel, Eastern Standard Tribe. I think they're basically viewed as accessories for mp3 players!

My revisions to your design would be that it should get better gas mileage. If it's a plug-in hybrid with a maximum speed around 50 MPH it should be easy to exceed 100 MPG if not more. Also, it has to be pretty small so it's about as easy to park as a motorcycle. Amory Lovins had some interesting ideas along these lines with his "hypercar" concept a few years back. I'm not sure where he's gone with that. He was imagining using space age or nano-materials to make lightweight vehicles safe in a crash.

[Aedo]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('johnmarkos', 'E')xcellent first post, StephenV.