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PeakOil is You

THE US Housing Thread (merged)

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Unread postby katkinkate » Fri 06 May 2005, 04:38:12

You can find fairly cheap land if you go far enough west. That means, into the semi-arid, almost desert country the land gets cheap. The coastal strip is fairly expensive, unless the land is a rocky patch on top of a hill, or a flood-prone piece of low land that you're not allowed to build on because of the frequent floods (river flood channels, eg. Fitzroy River in Rockhampton).

Anyway, I'm not really sure what you would consider 'affordable', you might be richer than me. :wink: So here's the best site I've found to look over what's available.
http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bin/rs ... =bhp&t=lan

Good luck.
Kind regards, Katkinkate

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but the cultivation and perfection of human beings."
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Unread postby Madpaddy » Fri 06 May 2005, 04:48:01

whereismymonkey,
You should check this out.
http://www.rte.ie/tv/thecolony/history.html

The series is very interesting and should give you some idea of the effort involved in setting up a self sufficient community in Oz.
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47% of 2004 R.E. loans in California were interest-only!!

Unread postby Dvanharn » Sat 07 May 2005, 15:50:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'K')en Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate at University of California-Berkeley's Haas School of Business, believes something less than an economic disaster could cause big problems for some buyers entering the market. He's concerned that the combination of low interest rates and easy loans has artificially pushed up prices, and lulled consumers into a false belief that home values only go up.

That is reflected in the dramatic increase in interest-only loans, which usually become adjustable after five years. Their popularity jumped in California from 1.43 percent of all new mortgage loans in 2001 to more than 47 percent originated last year, according to LoanPerformance, a mortgage data and analytical company.


The 5 years before interest can go up is a cushion, but some most of these buyers are getting the interest only rates because they cannot afford a loan with interest plus principal payments, even at the adjustable rates. I suspect many of them are "flippers" looking for a quick profit, and who may end up bitterly disappointed and bankrupt if they don't get out or real estate soon. However, the tough new U.S. private-citizen bankruptcy laws have been put in place just in time to make it tough for people to escape. Ssome young mortgage holders may be shackled with "permanent" partial payments as is allowed under the new bankruptcy laws. Interesting times ahead!!

I will likely get some funds from an inheritance when a house and a condo going on the market this month are sold. The market is still going up here in Sonoma County in the Northern California wine country, and prices are up 22% over a year ago. The average home price in this part of "wine country" is about $600,000 (median price is a little over $500,000). I am a bit worried that the prices might start to level off, and the estate's executor could end up chasing the price down. OTOH, this is a "desireable" area with limited RE inventory, and many people are looking to buy before the interest rates get too high.

Either way, I will put my share of the proceeds in what I determine to be the safest, non-speculative investment (now there's a challenge!), and hope to draw on the investment to supplement my retirement income.

I have considered moving to another state where the cost of housing is less (the city of Corvallis in Oregon's Willamette Valley), but at age 63, I really want to stay in this progressive, green, semi-agricultural area where most of my friends live.

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Nothing Pops A Housing Bubble Like Unemployment

Unread postby BabyPeanut » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 08:27:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/oct2005/nf20051028_4124_db016.htm]Housing Leaks a Little More Steam (link)[/url]
BUSINESS WEEK - NEWS ANALYSIS By Michael Englund and Rick MacDonald OCTOBER 28, 2005
September saw new home sales once again fall below economists' expectations, and the number of unsold homes is rising


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2005/10/28/suddenly_areas_housing_market_favors_the_buyers/]Suddenly, area's housing market favors the buyers (link)[/url]
Cooling of sales to crimp pseudoconomy By Robert Gavin, Globe Staff October 28, 2005
Greater Boston's once-sizzling home sales have cooled so much this fall that realtors are reverting to a description not heard in a decade: ''Buyer's market."


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2005-10-27T201833Z_01_N0790500_RTRIDST_0_ECONOMY-HOUSING.XML]Weak US housing data affirms slowdown expectations (link)[/url] By Julie Haviv
NEW YORK, Oct 27 (Reuters) - A deluge of U.S. data showing an excessive supply of houses, declining demand and falling prices have many economists acknowledging a slowdown in housing has arrived.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')url=http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20051027.wusjobs1027/BNStory/Business/]US jobless claims top 500,000 (link)[/url] By MARTIN CRUTSINGER Oct 27, 2005 Associated Press
WASHINGTON — The number of people who lost their jobs because of hurricanes Katrina and Rita has now climbed above the half-million mark with further increases expected in coming weeks from Hurricane Wilma.

So what's the real number? 5,000,000?
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Re: Nothing Pops A Housing Bubble Like Unemployment

Unread postby Armageddon » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 09:32:46

the rule of thumb is, triple the governments number, and you will be pretty close to the actual number.
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Re: Nothing Pops A Housing Bubble Like Unemployment

Unread postby gnm » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 10:48:24

Yes, that rule of thumb is probably applicable to the governments reported inflation rate also. So if they say inflation is under control at 3%, just remember its actually 9%...

8O

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Re: Nothing Pops A Housing Bubble Like Unemployment

Unread postby Revi » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 11:06:41

The housing market may soften, but the price of woodland and good farmland isn't going down. Neither is the cost of a small, well insulated home outside of overheated markets. You have to live somewhere. The small house with features like a woodstove, solar panels, earth berm is like the hybrid of houses. The Mc Mansion, with cathedral ceilings in the far exurbs is the SUV. We're way overstocked with Mc Mansions. It's like the GMC dealership. Nobody's buying. Check out the toyota dealership. It's hopping. The broader housing market may be going, but the green market is just getting started.
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Re: Nothing Pops A Housing Bubble Like Unemployment

Unread postby gnm » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 11:11:13

I think you just described my house... Well minus the earth berm anyways...
:-D

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Re: Nothing Pops A Housing Bubble Like Unemployment

Unread postby aflurry » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 11:17:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')he housing market may soften, but the price of woodland and good farmland isn't going down. Neither is the cost of a small, well insulated home outside of overheated markets. You have to live somewhere. The small house with features like a woodstove, solar panels, earth berm is like the hybrid of houses. The Mc Mansion, with cathedral ceilings in the far exurbs is the SUV. We're way overstocked with Mc Mansions. It's like the GMC dealership. Nobody's buying. Check out the toyota dealership. It's hopping. The broader housing market may be going, but the green market is just getting started.

My friend. This is such a great post. Very well said.
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Re: Nothing Pops A Housing Bubble Like Unemployment

Unread postby Leanan » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 13:05:47

Cartoon from Time magazine:

Image
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Re: Nothing Pops A Housing Bubble Like Unemployment

Unread postby GreyZone » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 14:23:37

Two comments:
1. People often fail to realize that earth bermed (or earth rammed such as Earthship design) homes using their own physical mass as part of passive solar driven heating and cooling are often cheaper or no more expensive to heat/cool in larger sizes than in small sizes. If you want a big home that's cheap to heat or which even costs nothing? Go earth bermed or even fully underground with just an exposed south face maximizing solar gain.
2. The unemployment numbers are deceptive. Those are claims per week. Nowhere in that article did they dare mention total claims active. That number would be in the millions, probably near 5-6 million if we are still around 5% unemployment, which I doubt.
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Re: Nothing Pops A Housing Bubble Like Unemployment

Unread postby foodnotlawns » Fri 28 Oct 2005, 16:06:09

I sure hope this means they stop bulldozing farmland NOW!!!

They don't appreciate the value of New England farmland -- good rainfall, good climate, the soil may be rocky and clayish but that can be fixed. THere is this idea that we don't need farms in New England -- how wrong they are!
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Re: Nothing Pops A Housing Bubble Like Unemployment

Unread postby Revi » Mon 31 Oct 2005, 12:59:24

New England farmland is mostly forestland. The good stuff has either been turned into house lots or is still being farmed. It grows great hay and great wood. I was thinking that the best investment you could make is in a few acres of woods, and an acre of good garden spot. You could live off of the food you grow, heat the house and live simply.
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Re: Nothing Pops A Housing Bubble Like Unemployment

Unread postby sammybolthead » Mon 31 Oct 2005, 13:54:13

Sadly, such is the case in Toronto and the golden horseshoe around the lake. It is proven to be some of the best farmland in Canada and it is nearly all paved over. My mother-in-law's subdivision used to be farmland until about 6 years ago, the rate of subdivision growth in her area is approximately 500 acres a year in development. Absolutely astonishing. I'm in the building industry and in 15 years have never seen anything quite like it. Except in the late 90s when they developed the farmland in Kelowna BC.

Wonder what we'll do with all the asphalt and building materials when we dig them up looking for arable land?
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Re: Nothing Pops A Housing Bubble Like Unemployment

Unread postby Revi » Mon 31 Oct 2005, 14:14:53

Chunks of concrete coulb be used to build walls. I don't know what we'll do with all that asphalt. It chips up pretty easily. Maybe it'll become the new version of the old stone wall. There will be asphalt walls all around the former parking lots. They will be nice, flat farmland with huge barnlike dead malls to keep the livestock in.
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Re: Nothing Pops A Housing Bubble Like Unemployment

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 31 Oct 2005, 15:57:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'C')hunks of concrete coulb be used to build walls. I don't know what we'll do with all that asphalt. It chips up pretty easily. Maybe it'll become the new version of the old stone wall. There will be asphalt walls all around the former parking lots. They will be nice, flat farmland with huge barnlike dead malls to keep the livestock in.

Problem, asphault lacks strength when it gets hot from summer sunlight, it tends to sag and puddle instead of maintaining a wall shape. Second problem, when making parking lots the normal practice is to scrape off the topsoil and sell it, then replace it with a solidly compressed gravle base. You might grow Alfalfa or some kinds of grass in it, but most crops will be out of the question.
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To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: Nothing Pops A Housing Bubble Like Unemployment

Unread postby rogerhb » Mon 31 Oct 2005, 16:08:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'S')econd problem, when making parking lots the normal practice is to scrape off the topsoil and sell it, then replace it with a solidly compressed gravle base. You might grow Alfalfa or some kinds of grass in it, but most crops will be out of the question.

Fond of cactus?
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Re: Nothing Pops A Housing Bubble Like Unemployment

Unread postby Revi » Tue 01 Nov 2005, 13:31:51

All that work we put into building the suburban world is for naught, isn't it. There will be trees growing up through the asphalt pretty quickly. We have some Japanese Knotweed, bamboolike stuff, that chips up the asphalt and grows right up through it. The ailanthus, or tree of heaven, will grow anywhere it can get a foothold. All that unused sunlight will be harvested somehow. 1000 watts per square meter won't be wasted.
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Re: Nothing Pops A Housing Bubble Like Unemployment

Unread postby uNkNowN ElEmEnt » Tue 01 Nov 2005, 13:44:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'E')xcept in the late 90s when they developed the farmland in Kelowna BC.

It gets worse, I was reading an article and it said that the encroaching suburbanites were complaining about the noise that you get from farms. I guess they didn't like the smell of cow poop, and the noise from farm animals interrupted their quiet mornings sitting on their balconies.

There was a vineyard owner in Kelowna (which brought this to mind), who'd been there for years before they started to develop the farmland near his place. the vineyard owner used a gun to scare off the birds each morning from eating his grapes and the suburbanites marched down to city hall to complain.
this is appently a huge issue. as suburbia encroaches on farmland, they don't want to be reminded of farms etc while living in their city like homes.
wild eh?
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Re: Nothing Pops A Housing Bubble Like Unemployment

Unread postby rogerhb » Tue 01 Nov 2005, 15:42:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('uNkNowN ElEmEnt', 'I') guess they didn't like the smell of cow poop, and the noise from farm animals interrupted their quiet mornings sitting on their balconies.

I hope they are all vegetarians.
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