[Hawkcreek]

Original post deleted by author.

[KiddieKorral]

If temporary price spikes count, I think you'll be okay. The last megaprojects won't be online until 2007, so that won't be a factor.

[Specop_007]

A months salary?!

Dude, find a better job!!

[dmtu]

August 2006 huh?

I good spike might get you by, that or a jittery market. Otherwise you'd better get a second job or you'll be out sleeping with the polar bears and seals. Of course if you like that kind of thing with bears...

[Jack]

I think you have a reasonable shot at winning. Iraq is unstable, and may become more so - perhaps resulting in less oil from that area. Saudi Arabia is also getting less stable.

You've got one other factor in your favor, and that's the weak dollar. Since the Fed is printing greenbacks as if there's no tomorrow, oil might go up a lot in dollar terms, less so in Euro terms. Fortunately, the terms of the bet appear to specify the U.S. dollar as te currency of choice.

[Such]

I would have bet three years... 2007 is the last year for good amounts of mega-projects...

[lotrfan55345]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hawkcreek', 'w')hole months wages on such a possibility?

[MonteQuest]

I think much sooner. China is the wildcard. Their increasing demand will push the date of peak-oil closer. And if there is some type of embargo anywhere??

[nigel]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lotrfan55345', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hawkcreek', 'w')hole months wages on such a possibility?

[Concerned]

I would say you have a 50/50 bet. If the world goes into recession then oil prices may decline.

In any event at the first spike to $100 ring up and claim your bet. If oil does not reach $100 per barrel by 2006 then cheerfully pay your $100 and suggest double or nothing for the next 3 years

Good luck

[BorneoRagnarok]

At current rate, you can claimed your $100 by August 2005. So don't worry so much . By the way, if Winter 2004 is as hot as oven , you still had Winter 2005 to go.

By the way, I had made a bet with my friends. In July 2004 , I predicted USD 48 by 1 September 2004. However it reached there by August. So I win the bet. But lose my beers. If I lose I must use 25% of my monthly income to give them a feast at a expensive Chinese restaurant . If I win, it is cheap beers. The purpose was to made them aware of the oil price movement and claimed their reward. Of course, I will stay silence whether I win or loss.

However now ,they blamed me of making them panic about oil price. Sigh .. now they told me that THE BIG BOY (multinational companies ) , George Soros or whatever want to made the world economy collapsed and buy everything at dirt cheap price and create another boom time to sell their overprice assets again so the peons will always be poor and toiling for overvalued assets forever. Logic ??

[Yamaha_R6]

I get paid a lot more than I am worth.

How much do you make if you dont mind me asking.... having self-esteme issues?

[WebHubbleTelescope]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Yamaha_R6', 'I') get paid a lot more than I am worth.

How much do you make if you dont mind me asking.... having self-esteme issues?

[Specop_007]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hawkcreek', 'O')k, that looks like about 5 people think I have at least a fair chance, and 2 think I may be in trouble. I'm ok with those odds.
And for the ones thinking I need a new job - I admit, I was lying again --about the months salary thing.
I get paid a lot more than I am worth.

[Permanently_Baffled]

I think you may win your $100 but it will be irrelevant as the US and China will be two big nuclear mushroom clouds by then.....

[TommyJefferson]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hawkcreek', 'I') was just wondering how many of you out there think I may have been a bit premature in risking my whole months wages on such a possibility?

[evilgenius]

I'll go this far and say that when you made the bet you said $100 per barrel just because it was a nice round number. At that point upwards of $70 per barrel was probably just as unimaginable. Hell, people thought they would find the edge of the world at $50.

What is really strange is that you hear squeeks out of many believing the price will go back down to $35. That can only happen with a major recession/depression (in the works?) destroying demand so much that I think your friend will let you off of the hook for the hundred. At that point it would mean survival, not friendly betting.

[TommyJefferson]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'W')hat is really strange is that you hear squeeks out of many believing the price will go back down to $35.