[rogerhb]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'I')ronic how doomers complain about bankruptcies in the U.S. and then complain about debt.

[GoIllini]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('rogerhb', '
')They might be learning a little too late.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', 'P')fft! I guess we can just ignore the huge debt we piled up with cheap energy. It will be easy to service the cheap debt with expensive debt.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', 'A')nd my experience is showing that Americans are starting to learn to save.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', ' ')Apparently, when the cost of energy skyrockets, as you claim, American coal is somehow going to be cheap and not be used to pay off the country's trade debts.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ') All of this adds up to an economic crisis that has no solution short of a powerdown and a reduction in the standard of living.

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', ' ') All of this adds up to an economic crisis that has no solution short of a powerdown and a reduction in the standard of living.

[Macsporan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Currently, we have a 248 trillion deviratives market in a 45 trillion world GDP.

They call that "financial speculation" and it can disappear with the snap of your fingers.

[Daryl]

"rogerhb wrote:

They might be learning a little too late.


Well, I would argue that some of the economic downturn is due just as much to consumers pulling back as it is to "Peak Oil."

ASPO, generally one of the most pessimistic groups studying energy that's somewhat considered still in the mainstream, is pushing its prediction for the peak back to 2011.

I think America's already hit its bottom with our attitude about consumer, trade, and federal debt. The big-deficit neocons are getting run out of Washington. Consumer spending is cutting back. And we're getting China to stop keeping the Yuan low. We've probably got at least three to five years to turn things around before the peak, and better yet, when peak oil hits, we'll have the energy and food needed to pay off the rest."



Nice on topic comment!

We've all heard the standard rants on how awful and evil suburbia is. Can we change the subject and look for some silver linings, just for a change of pace?

One positive thing about the exburbs is that businessis have relocated there. ie. all the jobs aren't in the city center. In an expensive energy era, there will have to be some rationalization, but I think key clusters of suburbs might do OK,especially if they are built around large industrial/office parks. This will actually shorten commutes. Everybody can't move back to the city center, they won't fit anyway. Electric or hydrogen bus transit systems have the flexibility required and are inexpensive to implement. Combined with moped and bicycly riding, I think some of the new exburbs could actually thrive.

[DigitalCubano]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', ' ')Currently, we have a 248 trillion deviratives market in a 45 trillion world GDP.

[DigitalCubano]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'O')ne positive thing about the exburbs is that businessis have relocated there. ie. all the jobs aren't in the city center. In an expensive energy era, there will have to be some rationalization, but I think key clusters of suburbs might do OK,especially if they are built around large industrial/office parks. This will actually shorten commutes. Everybody can't move back to the city center, they won't fit anyway.

[Macsporan]

Anyone who does not possess a time machine and who makes money predicting the future is gambling.

Imagine what the world would be like if all that money were available for alternate energy research, railways, or for that matter ending Third World Hunger?

Down with speculators!

Burn the last derivative in the ashes of the last warlord!

(wanders off muttering elderly Marxist slogans)

[Daryl]

I have read that some exburbs have become such large employment centers that there is more rush hour traffic coming out of the city center now to the exburb than there is going into the city. Imagining a resource scarce future, perhaps we could use the space taken up by malls and commercial strips and replace them with dense condominium residential structures, so more people can live nearer the jobs. After all, the malls are basically selling cheap useless junk made in Asia anyway. I agree with Kunstler on that. So we don't buy as much stuff, so what? The consumption economy will shift back to a more balanced economy, with more local distributors, agriculture, small manufacturers making stuff we really need. More bicycle manufacturing, fewer tanning huts. Sounds good to me.

In other words, many suburbs may have the ability to transform themselves into the model 19th century American towns that Kunstler seems to regard as the pinnacle of human civilization.

[mommy22]

Not sure if this follows the course of this discussion, but one idea that may happen is perhaps there will be a return of the breadman. Or milkman. When I was young, and our family lived out in the boonies, the breadman came around to our neighborhood and made deliveries. When our family lived in Belgium a few years ago, I had a milkman deliver our milk, eggs, and butter. Perhaps something on that order could come to suberbia, perhaps at a neighborhood park or school, or church and then people could walk to get some of their groceries on a regular basis. Kind of like a bookmobile service for food? And simultaneously, those of us with excess produce to sell, or barter service could sell/advertise there.
I guess I have a hard time visualizing an instant die-off transformation, and I want to believe that communities can sustain and support each other through creativity and hard work and cooperation.

[Daryl]

Another positive. I can accept the premise that too many Americans have a problem being anti-authoritarian, selfish and wasteful. But Americans are also very adaptable. We lack stability and traditions. This could end up being a plus because we are able to undergo rapid change more easily than other societies. I think to during the next 50 years Americans are going to have to utilize this ability to the maximum. I forsee a series of energy shocks forcing seismic shifts in the American system toward the European/Japanese model. Under duress, the depth and power of American ingenuity and creativity might be as much of a suprise as anything.

[Doly]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Daryl', 'U')nder duress, the depth and power of American ingenuity and creativity might be as much of a suprise as anything.

[Ibon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DigitalCubano', ' ')I think that many doomers shortchange the ability of the average person to change and the value of our accumulated knowledge base. I still think that we will have to "powerdown," especially with regards to transportation. As a result, things will be different, but not necessarily worse.

[holmes]

When bodies are piled on top of one another and the only "wilderness" or cropland that is available is central park or some urban "greenway" everything is optimistic, even though the eyes and spirit are blind and decayed. No other way is known or understood. Its all "normal".

[MonteQuest]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DigitalCubano', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MonteQuest', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GoIllini', ' ')Currently, we have a 248 trillion deviratives market in a 45 trillion world GDP.

[jtmorgan61]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') have read that some exburbs have become such large employment centers that there is more rush hour traffic coming out of the city center now to the exburb than there is going into the city.