[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LadyRuby', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'W')ho claims PO will be the extinction of the human race?

Why do people always bring up this ridiculous strawman?

[Macsporan]

Some people have come pretty close to "the extinction of the human race" in the Doomer camp so LadyRuby's statement, though exaggerated, in not a straw man.

Doomers lack imagination in six areas:

First they can't seem to envisage any intermediate state between SUVs and super-highways and miserable wretches camped in ravaged ruins eating each other's grandmothers. It is a childlike "everything or nothing" mentality.

Second they do underestimate the technical proficiency and ingenuity of the Human Race. After all we haven't even really tried to solve the problems of PO. It is a little early to declare them insoluble. Let the West spend a third on alternate energy research as they do on weaponry for a few years and let’s see what happens.

Thirdly, they fail to appreciate that once the Great PO Depression hits consumption of all manner of things, including oil, will plummet creating a pool of resources available for creating a post PO world.

It will be a terrible shock: all will suffer, some will die but failing a nuclear holocaust we will muddle through somehow, even if we find we have to do a generations work in a decade.

It would have been better if we'd been preparing for this for a generation just as it would have been better if Czarist Russia had industrialised in the late 19th century; but when the need became dire (hey, we just got beaten in WWI) the Communist regime in the early 20th century was able to quadruple industrialisation in the single decade 1929-39.

I don't advocate this, I post it as an example of what people can achieve when they're really committed and totally freaked out, as we will be.

"Come what come may, time and the hour runs through the roughest day."

Fourthly people can actually survive on a small fraction of "the American Way of Life" which is historically speaking a decadent grotesquery.

Fifthly people can act swiftly to dismantle defunct systems peacefully.

The winding-up of the USSR and its empire was achieved with negligible bloodshed and confusion. To the best of my knowledge not a single babushka ended up on the dinner table.

If those downtrodden slaves of communist tyranny could do that is there any reason why we enlightened Westerners cannot do the same?

Sixthly, however traumatic this may seem to the present generation who knew "the nights of Nero", subsequent generations will take it all in their stride. You don't miss what you never experienced. In fact they will probably scorn us as depraved reprobates and be glad to see the end of us.


The fact is that to cope with PO a lot of very spoiled people are going to have to cope with radical change, relative impoverishment and work very, very hard with their hands for long hours and little reward for themselves. The will have to sacrifice themselves for future generations and the continuity of human civilisation.

And having had their intestinal fortitude surgically removed by a generation of capitalist decadence and self-indulgence they don't like the sound of this and would prefer all to perish in a universal catastrophe while they wax eloquent in sado-masochistic self-pity.

Doomerism is the coward’s way, a Vichy-style betrayal of all that is best in Humanity.

My advice to all is to cultivate courage, determination, selflessness and ingenuity. They've saved us before and they'll save us again.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Macsporan', 'T')he fact is that to cope with PO a lot of very spoiled people are going to have to cope with radical change, relative impoverishment and work very, very hard with their hands for long hours and little reward for themselves. The will have to sacrifice themselves for future generations and the continuity of human civilisation.

[turmoil]

We'll see won't we.

"I'd put my money on solar energy... I hope we don't have to wait til oil and coal run out before we tackle that." ~ Thomas Edison, in conversation with Henry Ford and Harvey Firestone, March 1931

"We have only two modes - complacency and panic." —James R. Schlesinger, the first energy secretary, in 1977, on the country's approach to energy

"Pessimism of the Intellect; Optimism of the Will."
—Antonio Gramsci

[trespam]

Hah hah hah hah hah hah hah hah hah hah hah. I love it when people refer to themselves as "doomers." Or "cornucopians." I also find it strange that people refer to themselves as "peak oilers." My god. That is cult thinking. I'm a "doomer." I'm a "peak oiler."

Strange stuff folks. I believe in peak oil. But I'm not so simplistic to start slapping labels onto myself willy nilly.

Doomer. Peak Oiler. hah hah hah hah hah hah hah hah hah hah hah hah hah hah hah hah hah hah hah.

Silly children.

[Dingbat]

MacSporan: here here!

I've been lurking here for a while and although labels like "doomers" and "cornucopians" have a certain use, I think the terms are a bit too black and white for me. To paint all doomers identically is as much a mistake as branding any person with some optimism as a cornucopian.

That being said - like anything, I think the truth on how things will pan out is going to be somewhere in the middle.

My personnal feeling when I first read what "doomers" were writing on this forum is that they tend to be more of the individualistic mindset that many americans seem to share it would seem -- if this was another epoch (say, the 1960s), they would probably be the same types building fallout shelters on their property, stocking up food , absolutely certain that the world will come to an end any day now (tm) in a global nuclear Armageddon (tm).

I haven't seen many true cornucopians on the other hand here much, they seem to get shouted down pretty thoroughly when they manifest themselves strongly enough.

My personnal view is that - not being such a raw raw individualist, somehow alot of people (maybe with the help of government) will get together, analyse the problem rationally at some point and act on the problem collectively. How likely is this going to happen? In the US, I have some serious doubts. The individualist streak is deeply embedded in the american psyche and I really don't know how well that would play out. In the rest of the world - depends on the nation.

The whole point I'm trying to make is that whatever happen, it won't be a homogenous thing. Some nations/states/provinces will fare better than others. Nations where people are more socially-minded will probably do better but that's my opinion.

- Dingbat.

[LadyRuby]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Dingbat', 'M')acSporan: here here!

[Ludi]

So, if people are going to pull together to solve the PO problem, what are you doing?

[Macsporan]

Refusing to despair.

[Ludi]

That's good start, but in what way is it directly addressing the problem?

I think it's great that you point out what people can do. For myself, I'm more interested in what people are doing now t address these problems. I think it's important that we begin to deal with the situation before it gets dire. But that's just my way of approaching things.

I don't think people should despair, but neither do I think they should just sit there saying "Don't worry, be happy!"

[Aaron]

I agree with Simmons that the first step is understanding where we really are...

Simmons

[aldente]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jaymax', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his problem ranks alongside thermonuclear war

[backstop]

Aaron -

I note that the Simmons clip starts:

"If we don't do the data reform we're just going to smack into a wall . . . "

Personally I disagree with him. Doing the data reform on oil & gas doesn't begin to address the other equally lethal aspects of the global problematique, and so IMV offers no prevention at all of "smacking into a wall."

I note his use of "IF" as indicating that he sees coherent collective action as both crucial and possible, and in that I agree with him, for all he appears very blinkered as to the scope of the problems faced. Thus he is clearly unsuited to the title of doomer.

Lady Ruby's critique of doomers as lacking imagination overlooks their patent shortcoming, which is of the will to acknowledge and commit to promoting the chances of ameliorating the problematique, (however slim those chances may be) rather than wallowing in, and propagating, apathy over the lack of action to date.

As such, I doubt it's imagination that is lacking so much as morale.

regards,

Backstop

[Ludi]

So people who are constantly screaming "Do something! We've got to do something! Why isn't anyone doing anything?!" are wallowing in apathy?

Man, I'm just not seeing it....

[turmoil]

We've heard that a million monkeys at a million keyboards could produce the complete works of Shakespeare; now, thanks to the Internet, we know that is not true.
- Robert Wilensky

One of the keys to happiness is a bad memory.
- Rita Mae Brown

[backstop]

Ludi -

One of the difficulties of this simplistic notion of categorizing people into the three classes of doomer, lander & optimist is that no useful definitions are supplied.

I certainly don't see those "who are constantly screaming do something!" as wallowing in apathy. At least they are still hopeful that somebody else will do something.

No, my understanding of doomer (which is probably only one of about 3000 members' versions on this site) is that it describes those who see our position as being so hopeless that there is nothing to be done but wallow in the horrific scenarios of a catastrophic future. That this wallowing may discourage and demoralize others seems unfortunate.

regards,

Backstop

[seldom_seen]

the doomer title is dumb. it doesn't express the optimism that many people feel with the imminent collapse of the techno-industrial megamachine.

[Guest]

Hey all,

First, those who've read my posts here, know that I lean hard to the doomer end of the spectrum. That assessment is based on my knowledge of human nature and history. Individuals and small groups (like a small town) can have many virtues, but humanity as a group is deeply flawed. We seem to make the same mistakes, fall into the same pitfalls, make the same bad choices (in agregate) time after time after time. We procrastinate, substitute wishful thinking for astute planning, follow political expediency rather than face brutal truths and act accordingly. We are our own worst enemy.

That said, we have had some noteable exceptions. I'm hoping that facing and conquering Peak Oil will be one of them.

Humanity has accomplished some great things - built the Great Wall of China, the Pyramids, we've gone to the Moon, and developed antibiotics. When desire and will can be called into play, we often find the way, or make one. Despite having that potential, however, we rarely live up to it.

If I had to hazard a guess, (and these are just my gut-feelings, based on my observations of human behaviour and my assessment of the facts surrounding Peak Oil) I'd guess the following outcomes and the chances of occurance:

Apocalyptic crash (primitive conditions, zero functioning infrastructure, every man for himself) - 5%

Severe crash (major portions of infrastructure functioning at greatly reduced level, reduced capacity for governance, technology, distribution and transportation networks and high need for local community efforts for basic survival) - 25%

Dire economic crash ala 1930's with no recovery - 40%

Economic decline ala 1970's stagflation with no recovery - 25%

Alternitive Energy Utopia (petroleum decline mostly offset by new energy substitutes & technologies) - 5%

If these are ballpark accurate, I can make the following suppositions about my personal future:

There is a 95% chance I will experience a serious reduction in my standard of living.

There is a 70% chance I will experience long-term unemployment, financial hardship, and probably have to find a job at manual labor instead of the lucrative high-tech job I have now. Also the same chance I will have to live in a community with reduced services such as public transportation and law enforcement, and a population who is experiencing similar hardship, the desperation of the very poor and resultant rising crime.

There is a 30% chance I will have to rely on myself and my neighbors in the community for basics like food, water, medical attention, security etc. I may have to be prepared to do without luxuries like automobiles, health care, electricity, and shopping on an ongoing basis.

There is a 5% chance that my life will go on as usual, thanks to technology and innovation, and the hard work of many engineers and scientists and technicians who discovered, designed and built the new energy infrastructure before the oil crash could occur.

If I've assessed the probabilities with any reasonable degree of accuracy, I'd have to put my greatest efforts into preparing for that 30% chance. If I'm prepared for that, then if any of the other options occur, no sweat, I and my wife will be OK. If I wait until the 70% chance occurs, it will be too late to prepare for the 30% chance (which will by then be practically a 50-50 proposition) because I'll be too busy scrambling to keep bread on the table and the lights on and a roof over our heads, and too poor to afford to do anything more. I definitely can't bank on the 5% chance, however much I may want it to happen.

My feeling is that the average person in the US right now, is banking on that 5% chance, which is what will eventually lead to it not happening. Human nature rears it's ugly head again. I think it's these people who lack imagination, that there could be any other future way of life but the one they're living right now.

Macsporan, I read your post, and I hope I'm wrong and you're right about the future of our civilization. I'll admit it's a possibility. My heart wants to be an optimist but my head says I'd better play the odds smart or I might not be playing at all.

[bruss01]

Sorry, that was me above (guest).

From Men In Black:

J: "Why the big secret? People are smart, they can handle it."
K: "A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals and you know it."


I re-read Mac's post after writing mine above. If by "doomer" you mean "we're all gonna die so why bother doing anything let's just party on till the end" then I'm definitely not the hopeless apathy type.

I think it's our way of living, and possibly our infrastructure that's doomed. We will all have to work hard, whether it's up front in prevention and/or mitigation, or afterwards in working hard just to maintain a reasonably human existence. I hope that those who are in control of the decision-making processes in this country ("the voters" - hah don't make me laugh) allow it to be the former rather than the later.

It's the people who lack imagination, and who will resist the hard reality that we will need to work hard, who will compound the problem. They will seek to postpone the pain through avoidance, in much the same manner as we have allowed the national debt to spiral, and eased our own lazy and indulgent lives at the expense of our children's future. Politicians make popular decisions rather than prudent ones, knowing that they'll be retired from office by the time the consequences of their folly are felt. Business tycoons only care about their own "golden parachute" and couldn't care less if the whole house of cards comes tumbling down as long as they get "theirs" and get out first. I haven't seen many grass-roots movements get up enough steam to effect real change, especially when the message is the equivalent of "they sky is falling" which no one really wants to hear. Most people can't be bothered to patch the roof when it's not raining. A sad fact, but most of us in the US are willfully ignorant and too lazy and self-indulgent to expend effort and expense unless we are personally feeling the pain. By the time the pain becomes self-evident, we will have passed the point of mitigation, and entered the realm of sheer survival. Another opportunity squandered. Sigh.

The End Of The World As We Know It (TEOTWAWKI) happens all the time. When my Dad was growing up in Wyoming, going into town meant hitching up the team to the wagon and packing a lunch. He lived to see the Shuttle going into space so often it wasn't newsworthy anymore. Well, the world as he knew it ended, didn't it. The Native Americans who watched the white men lay railroad tracks which were followed by smoke-belching Iron Horses saw the world as they knew it end. Why should we think we're immune to the march of time and change? People who lack imagination laugh at the idea that their world, as they know it, could end. Even when that world, as they know it, is based on a finite and depleting resource.

There is going to be an oil crash, all the data points that way. The experts know it. The politicians know it. Lifestyles are nearly certain to decline, populations are likely to decline, civilization itself is vulnerable to decline. I wholeheartedly support the idea that "we" collectively need to be doing something about it, with "it" being transitioning to more sustainable lifestyles. However, I strongly suspect that we will do too little too late. I wholeheartedly endorse each of us individually doing something about it, with "it" being our personal survival. We dare not delude ourselves into thinking there aren't tough times ahead. We dare not delude ourselves into thinking that any effort, whether cooperative or individual, is worthless.

There is much to be done that is worth doing.

[Ludi]

I guess I just don't know who these "doomers" being referred to are. Clearly they must be important, since we keep talking about them. But who are they?